Technical Basis Document No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 Prepared for: U.S. Department of Energy Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management Office of Repository Development P.O. Box 364629 North Las Vegas, Nevada 89036-8629 Prepared by: Bechtel SAIC Company, LLC 1180 Town Center Drive Las Vegas, Nevada 89144 Under Contract Number DE-AC28-01RW12101 QA: NA October 2003 Revision 2 October 2003 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 OVERVIEW This technical basis document provides a summary of the conceptual understanding of water seepage into waste emplacement drifts, which is a process affecting the prediction of the postclosure performance of the high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. This document is one in a series that is being prepared for each component of the Yucca Mountain repository system relevant to predicting its likely postclosure performance. The relationship of drift seepage to the other components is illustrated in Figure 1-1. Drift seepage is affected by the processes that will be described in technical basis documents on climate and infiltration, unsaturated zone flow, mechanical degradation and seismic effects, low probability seismic events, and volcanic events. Seepage is affected by and affects the in-drift environment discussed in the technical basis document on in-drift chemical environment. The amount of seepage water entering the waste emplacement drifts and potentially contacting waste canisters impacts downstream repository system components, including corrosion, waste dissolution, and transport of radionuclides and colloids through the engineered barrier system, the unsaturated and saturated zones, and the biosphere. Figure 1-1. Components of the Postclosure Technical Basis for the License Application October 2003 1-1 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 The information presented in this document, along with the associated references, forms an outline of the seepage-related studies supporting the ongoing development of the postclosure safety analysis that will comprise the license application (LA). This information is also used to respond to several open Key Technical Issue (KTI) agreements between the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE); detailed responses to these KTI agreements are provided in Appendices A through E, as shown in Table 1-1. TEF 2.08, GEN 1.01 (15) TSPAI 3.25 USFIC 4.01 USFIC 4.06 RT 3.06, SDS 3.02 Table 1-1. Seepage-Related Key Technical Issues Agreements Addressed in This Report Short Description KTI Agreement/AIN Appendix Effects of heterogeneity on thermal seepage Using test data to reduce uncertainty in TSPA seepage abstraction In situ field testing results and analyses Justification of continuum approach for seepage modeling Alcove 8–Niche 3 pretest predictions October 2003 1-2 A B C D E Water is one of the principal agents determining corrosion of engineered barriers, waste dissolution, and radionuclide transport from the repository to the accessible environment. The amount and chemical composition of water seeping into waste emplacement drifts thus affects the long-term safety of the repository system at Yucca Mountain. In the unsaturated zone, percolating water encountering a large underground opening is partly diverted around the cavity. This effect reduces the amount of liquid water entering the waste emplacement drift or prevents dripping altogether (i.e., the seepage flux is expected always to be smaller than the local percolation flux). This effect is referred to as a capillary barrier; it is an attribute of the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain. Moreover, during the early stages after closure, the heat from decaying radionuclides will vaporize water that approaches the waste emplacement drift. Both mechanisms limit the amount of water that potentially contacts the waste packages. Characterizing and predicting seepage requires addressing a variety of processes and factors, including the distribution of water percolating through the mountain, the hydrogeologic properties of the fractured rock in the vicinity of a waste emplacement drift, the temperature and humidity conditions near and within the drift, the drift geometry, and the drift wall structure. These processes and factors are discussed in more detail in Section 2. A comprehensive testing program was designed and executed to understand seepage at Yucca Mountain and to obtain data supporting the models developed to predict drift seepage during the postclosure period. The testing program and data are presented in Section 3. Various process models were developed to analyze data from seepage experiments and to predict seepage into waste emplacement drifts under ambient and thermally elevated conditions. Experimental and modeling studies were performed to evaluate how seepage is affected by repository heat, mechanical deformation of the rock and the drift itself, changes in the chemical environment, and other perturbations. These modeling studies are summarized in Section 4. Uncertainties and variabilities in the predicted seepage rates are examined and accounted for in a simplified but reasonable representation of seepage in a probabilistic total system performance No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 assessment (TSPA) analysis. The testing and modeling program undertaken to understand and characterize seepage from fractured rock is considered suitable to provide an adequate basis for predicting seepage into waste emplacement drifts under ambient and thermally elevated conditions at Yucca Mountain. 1.2 SIGNIFICANCE OF SEEPAGE FOR REPOSITORY PERFORMANCE The number of waste packages contacted by water, the corrosion performance of the engineered barriers, the dissolution and mobilization of radionuclides, and the release and migration of radionuclides to the accessible environment depend on the rate, chemical composition, and spatial and temporal distribution of water seeping into the emplacement drifts. Percolating water encountering a waste emplacement drift is partly diverted around the opening because of the capillary barrier effect, which refers to the tendency of water to be held in the pores of unsaturated rock rather than dripping into a large opening. As a result, the seepage flux is expected to be smaller than the local percolation flux. This capillary barrier effect is an attribute of the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain. While seepage is determined by features and processes occurring above the drift, the flow diversion phenomenon and reduction or prevention of water inflow into the drifts also affects the conditions below the repository, specifically the reduced saturation in the matrix and the fractures immediately beneath the drift. This is referred to as the drift shadow zone (see Figure 1-2). The saturation and flow conditions in the shadow zone impact diffusive releases at the interface between the drift invert and natural environment and the potential for the absence of fast advective transport of radionuclides through the fracture network. A scientific research program has been undertaken to understand and characterize the fundamental processes contributing to seepage into underground openings excavated in the unsaturated, fractured formations at Yucca Mountain. In addition, a research program was designed to characterize the seepage-related properties of the repository host rock, providing the basis for the site-specific seepage predictions. Seepage was examined using theoretical, experimental, numerical, and natural analog studies. The key factors affecting seepage were identified, and site-specific, seepage-relevant parameters were determined through in situ testing. Numerical models were developed and calibrated against data that contain seepage-relevant information. These models were extensively tested to gain confidence in their ability to make predictions of drift seepage. Natural analogs were studied to corroborate the water-exclusion concept under unsaturated conditions. Based on this research program, an understanding of the process of seepage into waste emplacement drifts has been gained. Seepage tests in the repository host units were performed to obtain site-specific characterization data related to seepage. A consistent and systematic approach to analyzing these data for use in subsequent seepage prediction models was developed. October 2003 1-3 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 Figure 1-2. Schematic Showing Reduced Seepage and the Development of a Shadow Zone as a Result of the Flow Diversion Capability of the Capillary Barrier in the Unsaturated Zone While the seepage processes and controlling mechanisms are well understood, seepage predictions under both ambient and thermal conditions remain uncertain, primarily because of natural variability. These uncertainties were assessed through the abstraction process and will be propagated in a probabilistic TSPA calculation. 1.3 PURPOSE AND SCOPE The purpose of this document is to provide an overview of the current understanding of drift seepage, including a summary description of seepage testing and modeling activities. It presents the technical basis for addressing seepage KTIs. The report summarizes the lines of reasoning used to arrive at the conclusion that (1) reduction or prevention of water seepage into underground openings under both ambient and elevated temperature conditions is an attribute of the unsaturated zone barrier at Yucca Mountain, (2) the extensive testing conducted in the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) and the Enhanced Characterization of the Repository Block (ECRB) Cross-Drift provided critical seepage-related characterization data, (3) the comprehensive data analysis and modeling approach yields reasonable, site-specific seepage predictions, and (4) remaining uncertainties and process understanding issues are recognized. The report describes the process of seepage from the fractured repository units in the Topopah Spring welded tuff into a waste emplacement drift and presents the factors affecting seepage (see Section 2). This discussion covers a range of spatial and temporal scales from the near-steady, mountain-scale distribution of percolation flux to episodic, small-scale flow events within individual fractures to film flow along the drift surface. In addition to describing seepage processes under ambient conditions, the report also includes a discussion of coupled thermal, October 2003 1-4 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 hydrologic, chemical, and mechanical processes as they occur under increased temperature conditions and their impact on seepage. The report provides a summary description of field tests performed at Yucca Mountain to obtain site-specific data that characterize seepage-relevant features and processes (see Section 3). It also discusses the suite of models developed to analyze these data, to predict seepage into waste emplacement drift sections, and to abstract the simulation results for use in probabilistic TSPA calculations (see Section 4). This report does not describe in-drift processes that are affected by seepage water, which will be discussed in a technical basis document on the in-drift chemical environment. In-drift processes (specifically evaporation and condensation effects) are discussed here with respect to the interpretation of seepage test data. 1.4 DEFINITIONS In the context of this report, seepage is defined as dripping of liquid water from the formation into an underground opening, such as a niche, alcove, access tunnel, or waste emplacement drift. According to this definition, seepage does not include advective or diffusive vapor flow into the opening or condensation of water vapor on surfaces, which may lead to drop formation and drop detachment. Some of the water entering an underground opening may evaporate or flow along the wall, thus not contributing to seepage in the sense defined here. In-drift moisture redistribution and potential condensate accumulation will be discussed in the technical basis document on in-drift chemical environment. The seepage threshold is defined as the minimal percolation flux required to initiate seepage. A nonzero seepage threshold indicates the existence of effective water exclusion (Philip et al. 1989) capability of the formation. The presence of a seepage threshold can be directly observed from liquid-release tests conducted at different rates, which show that seepage ceases at a nonzero release rate. 1.5 CAPILLARY AND VAPORIZATION BARRIERS In the unsaturated zone, percolating water encountering a waste emplacement drift tends to be diverted around the opening because of the capillary barrier effect. This effect is referred to as the water exclusion phenomenon (Philip et al. 1989), which reduces the amount of liquid water entering an underground opening or prevents dripping altogether, that is, the seepage flux averaged over a sufficiently large area (e.g., that of a drift section with the length of a waste package) will always be equal to or smaller than the local percolation flux. This effect is an attribute of the unsaturated zone barrier at Yucca Mountain. The water-exclusion phenomenon has been extensively described in the literature (see Philip et al. 1989). The related water diversion capability is utilized in practical applications for the protection of landfills and hazardous waste sites. These standard engineering applications consider porous materials rather than fractured rocks. However, since the key factors affecting a capillary barrier are permeability and capillarity, properties also relevant for fractured rocks, the same effect applies to Yucca Mountain. October 2003 1-5 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 Water exclusion from drifts has been extensively tested through the in situ seepage experiments described in In Situ Field Testing of Processes (BSC 2001a, Sections 6.2 and 6.11) and Seepage into an Underground Opening Constructed in Unsaturated Fractured Rock Under Evaporative Conditions (Trautz and Wang 2002). The experiments show that the seepage rate is less than the injection rate. Because of storage effects and evaporation, the reduced seepage rate by itself does not conclusively prove that water is diverted around the opening, which would directly assess the barrier capability of the natural system at Yucca Mountain. However, a combination of observed and simulated contributions to the water balance during a seepage test indicates that a substantial amount of water is diverted around the opening, confirming this water-exclusion phenomenon in the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain under ambient conditions (see Section 3.1.5). After the emplacement of radioactive waste, the heat generated by the decay of the radionuclides will result in elevated rock temperatures for thousands of years after emplacement. For the current design, these temperatures are high enough to cause boiling in the rock. The thermally driven changes in water saturation affect the seepage potential. For above-boiling rock temperatures, vaporization of percolating water in the fractured rock overlying the repository will provide another effective process that greatly reduces (and most likely eliminates) seepage into the emplacement drifts during the thermal period, despite potentially increased reflux from the redistribution of water associated with vaporization and condensation of moisture above the drift. This additional process, referred to as the “vaporization barrier”, and its effect on seepage during the thermal period are further discussed in Sections 2.6.4 and 4.5. The term “capillary barrier” will be used throughout this technical basis document to refer to the flow diversion phenomenon occurring at the interface between two media with different capillary properties, where the medium with stronger capillarity overlies that of weaker capillarity. The term “vaporization barrier” will be used throughout this technical basis document to refer to the reduction of flow towards drifts as a result of vaporization occurring around a heated waste emplacement drift (BSC 2003a, Section 6.1.3). In these technical terms, the word “barrier” is used to describe the combined effect of a physical process occurring in a system with specific properties. This usage is slightly different from that in the definitions of natural and engineered barriers as given in Total System Performance Assessment—License Application Methods and Approach (BSC 2002a, Section 8.3.1). In summary, partial or complete diversion of water around underground openings due to the capillary barrier effect in combination with vaporization during the thermal period will reduce seepage or even prevent water from dripping into waste emplacement drifts. In addition, the extent of a potential low-saturation and low-flux shadow zone beneath the drift (see Figure 1-2) and its potential effectiveness in delaying radionuclide transport from the invert of the waste emplacement drift to the accessible environment is related to the seepage-exclusion phenomenon. The capability of the capillary barrier to divert flow around underground openings in unsaturated fractured formations has been established theoretically, as well as through modeling and extensive field testing at Yucca Mountain. Natural analogs further confirm the existence and effectiveness of the capillary barrier effect. October 2003 1-6 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 1.6 SUMMARY OF MODELING APPROACH Seepage into an opening in unsaturated fractured rock depends on the percolation flux, the formation characteristics, the geometric features of the opening, and the thermodynamic conditions in the rock and the opening itself (for details, see Section 2). Specifically, the processes that need to be combined in a comprehensive conceptual model of seepage include (1) the mountain-scale distribution of percolation flux; (2) the intermediate-scale channeling of flow in the fracture network; (3) the drift-scale capillary-barrier effect; and (4) the micro-scale phenomena of evaporation, film flow, drop formation, and drop detachment at the drift surface where water leaves the formation and enters the drift. In addition, the thermodynamic environment in the opening (e.g., temperature, relative humidity, preclosure ventilation regime) will also affect seepage. The analysis and modeling approach used to explain and reproduce seepage rates measured during liquid-release tests (see Section 3.1) and to predict seepage into waste emplacement drifts is described in detail in Section 4. The approach described in Section 4 is based on a process model of seepage in combination with effective parameters that are determined from in situ seepage experiments. Detailed predictions of drip frequency and individual seepage locations are not made; rather, calculated seepage rates are averaged in time and over a drift section of the approximate length of a waste package (i.e., they refer to the temporal and spatial scale of interest for a probabilistic assessment of seepage into a representative waste package). To support this approach, liquid-release tests were performed at rates below and above the seepage threshold. They covered the critical range of conditions expected under natural percolation conditions (which are most likely below the seepage threshold where no seepage occurs) and under localized, high flux conditions (as a result of wet climates combined with significant flow focusing) that may induce seepage. To summarize, the chosen approach focuses on the relevant drift- and waste-package scale and eliminates the need for auxiliary models and large spatial and temporal extrapolations from micro-scale models or low-resolution interpretation from site-scale models. A key advantage of this approach is that it relies directly on seepage-rate data that contain information about the relevant processes. Moreover, the type of data used for calibration (i.e., seepage rates from liquid-release tests collected in a drift section, see Section 3.1) are conceptually very similar to the variable of interest (i.e., average seepage rates from a natural percolation) that needs to be predicted with the calibrated model. This consistency between calibration and prediction data minimizes potential conceptual differences between the calibration and prediction model. The appropriateness of this approach is further discussed in Appendix D. Finally, uncertainties and variabilities inherent in the seepage process are addressed by a probabilistic treatment of seepage in TSPA (see Section 4). 1.7 NOTE REGARDING THE STATUS OF SUPPORTING TECHNICAL INFORMATION This document was prepared using the most current information available at the time of its development. This technical basis document and its appendices providing KTI agreement responses that were prepared using preliminary or draft information reflect the status of the Yucca Mountain Project’s scientific and design bases at the time of submittal. In some cases this October 2003 1-7 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 involved the use of draft analysis and model reports and other draft references whose contents may change with time. Information that evolves through subsequent revisions of the analysis and model reports and other references will be reflected in the LA as the approved analyses of record at the time of LA submittal. Consequently, the Project will not routinely update either this technical basis document or its KTI agreement appendices to reflect changes in the supporting references prior to submittal of the LA. October 2003 1-8 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 2. PROCESSES AND FACTORS AFFECTING SEEPAGE 2.1 SUMMARY DESCRIPTION OF SEEPAGE PROCESS The seepage process has been studied as part of the Yucca Mountain site characterization effort. The following section summarizes the processes and factors affecting seepage into waste emplacement drifts. Seepage is a process that occurs at the interface between the natural and engineered system. The repository design (drift geometry), and its construction (excavation effects, and drift surface roughness), and the operating conditions within the drifts, (e.g., heat load and ventilation) affect the amount and distribution of seepage. The following sections qualitatively discuss the seepage process and the important factors affecting seepage, which are schematically depicted in Figure 2-1 for both an intact and partially collapsed waste emplacement drift. Figure 2-1. Schematic Showing Seepage Processes and Factors Affecting Seepage October 2003 2-1 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 The majority of the precipitation on Yucca Mountain is removed by runoff and evapotranspiration. The remaining water penetrates the ground surface and starts to percolate downwards, driven by gravity and capillary forces (details will be discussed in the upcoming technical basis document on climate and infiltration). As this water percolates to depth, it is spatially redistributed (for details see the upcoming technical basis document on unsaturated zone flow and transport). Seepage into a section of waste emplacement drift is given by the local percolation flux minus the water that is diverted around the drift due to the capillary and vaporization barrier effects, minus water that flows as a film along the drift surface or that evaporates. The detailed flow path is determined by the degree of fracturing, fracture geometry, orientation, connectivity, and the hydrogeologic properties of the fractures and the matrix. Depending on these factors, the water phase in the unsaturated fracture network will either disperse or concentrate along the flow path. Tilted contacts between hydrogeologic units (especially between welded and nonwelded tuffs) may affect the overall flow pattern or lead to a change in the frequency and spacing of flow channels. As flow concentration continues to occur, the distance between the individual channels carrying focused flow increases. As a result, the likelihood of two channels meeting and merging decreases with depth. Flow concentration and dispersion of flow paths also occurs within a rough-walled fracture where asperity contacts and locally larger fracture openings lead to small-scale redistribution of water within the fracture. A general discussion of channeling effects under unsaturated flow conditions can be found in Solute Channeling in Unsaturated Heterogeneous Porous Media (Birkholzer and Tsang 1997). Flow focusing is important for seepage because seepage depends on the local (rather than average) percolation flux. These issues are further discussed in Section 2.2. As water approaches an emplacement drift (at a distance of one to several meters above the drift ceiling), conditions change in several ways that affect the amount of water that can seep into the opening. At early times after repository closure, the water will first encounter a dryout zone (defined as the zone of reduced saturation caused by preclosure drift ventilation or by boiling due to radioactive decay heat). Under boiling conditions, the dryout zone will be surrounded by a two-phase zone in which vapor-liquid counterflow (heat-pipe effect) occurs and a condensation zone with increased saturation. Preclosure ventilation and elevated temperatures are limited in time and do not affect long-term seepage. Formation properties around the openings will be altered as a result of stress redistribution during drift excavation, which will lead to local opening or partial closing of fractures and potentially the creation of new fractures. Additionally, thermal expansion of the rock matrix will also induce changes in apertures. Finally, the local chemical environment, which is altered by evaporation and thermal effects, will lead to dissolution and precipitation of minerals, affecting flow properties of the fracture system and fracture-matrix interaction (see the technical basis document on in-drift chemical environment). These conditions lead to a flow pattern around a waste emplacement drift that is different from that in the undisturbed formation under ambient conditions (i.e., before excavation and waste emplacement). When water penetrates the boiling zone (BSC 2003b, Sections 6.2 and 6.3) and reaches the immediate vicinity of the drift wall, it will still be prevented from seeping into the drift because of the capillary barrier effect (Philip et al. 1989). This effect leads to a local saturation build-up and, thus, the development of a higher water potential in the formation immediately adjacent to October 2003 2-2 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 the drift. If the permeability tangential to the drift wall (i.e., permeability in the direction along the ceiling) and the capillarity of the fracture network within this region are sufficiently high, all or a portion of the water will be diverted around the drift under partially saturated conditions. Alternatively, however, the water potential in the formation may be higher than that in the drift, allowing water to exit the formation. At the drift surface, the water will either evaporate or follow the inclined, rough wall in a film or form a drop that may grow and eventually detach (Or and Ghezzehei 2000). Only this last mechanism is considered drift seepage according to the definition of Section 1.4. The rate of water dripping into an opening in the unsaturated zone is expected to be significantly less than the local percolation rate because (1) the dryout zone around the drift reduces liquid water flow, potentially preventing water from reaching the drift surface, (2) the capillary barrier diverts water around the drift, thus bypassing the waste package, (3) water may flow along the drift surface without dripping into the opening, and (4) water may evaporate from the drift surface. Even if the seepage threshold were exceeded and seepage occurred, the seepage flux would be lower than the local percolation flux (i.e., the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain acts as a fully or partially effective barrier to water seeping into the waste emplacement drift). 2.2 FACTORS AND PROPERTIES AFFECTING SEEPAGE Seepage is a process that occurs at the interface between the natural and engineered systems. Consequently, seepage is not only affected by hydrogeological factors (percolation flux, formation properties), but also by the design of the repository and waste emplacement drifts (location and geometry), the method of construction (excavation effects, drift surface roughness, ground support), and the conditions within the drifts (heat load, preclosure ventilation, and drift degradation). The following sections describe the key factors affecting drift seepage and how they are included in the base-case conceptual model. The most important factors are the magnitude of the local percolation flux in relation to the formation’s permeability, the strength of the capillary forces in the fractures, the connectivity of the fracture network in the immediate vicinity of the opening, the local topography of the rough drift wall, and the thermodynamic conditions in the drift. Percolation Flux–The magnitude of the percolation flux is a key factor determining seepage. Seepage is initiated if the local percolation flux in individual flow channels and the accumulation of water from these channels near the drift ceiling exceeds the diversion capacity of the capillary barrier, the evaporation potential of the atmosphere in the drift, and the capacity of films to carry water along the drift surface. It is the local (rather than average) percolation flux that controls the onset of seepage. The source of percolation flux at Yucca Mountain is net infiltration at the ground surface, stemming from precipitation events. Net infiltration is the fraction of precipitation that moves through the ground surface to a depth where the liquid water can no longer be removed by evaporation or transpiration. Net infiltration varies in space (as a result of several factors, such as vegetation, morphology, soil and bedrock, and runoff and runon conditions) and in time (USGS 2001). Time variations are short-term as a result of daily or seasonal fluctuations and long-term as a result of climatic changes. As infiltrating water percolates through the unsaturated zone, driven by gravity and capillary forces, the initial infiltration and flow patterns October 2003 2-3 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 change depending on the hydrogeologic properties and their heterogeneities. On a large scale, several stratigraphic units of volcanic rock with significant differences in fracture frequency and matrix porosity can be distinguished at Yucca Mountain. Variations between units reflect the type of volcanic eruption, the rate of cooling, and the intensity of postdepositional processes. In general, percolation flux through the Tiva Canyon welded (TCw) hydrogeologic unit, the first fractured bedrock unit below alluvial deposits, is governed by the imposed distribution of net infiltration. Flow in this unit occurs mostly in the fractures before entering the underlying Paintbrush nonwelded (PTn) hydrogeologic unit. This unit corresponds to the lithostratigraphic units from the top of the Tiva Canyon Tuff crystal poor member vitric zone moderately welded subzone (Tpcpv2) to the bottom of the Topopah Spring Tuff crystal rich member vitric zone moderately welded subzone (Tptrv2). With its characteristics of high matrix porosity and low fracture frequency and the existence of tilted layers of nonwelded vitric and bedded tuff, the PTn can effectively divert percolating water into intercepting faults and fault zones (BSC 2003c). Also, the PTn unit dampens and homogenizes downward-moving transient pulses from surface infiltration events. Therefore, the percolation distribution below the PTn unit is considerably different from the distribution of net infiltration, both spatially and temporally. Additional information on flow diversion and dampening in the PTn will be presented in the technical basis document on unsaturated zone flow. The hydrogeologic unit below the PTn is the Topopah Spring welded (TSw) hydrogeologic unit, a thick, densely fractured unit corresponding to the the Topopah Spring Tuff upper lithophysal (Tptpul), middle nonlithophysal (Tptpmn), and lower lithophysal (Tptpll) zones, which will host the repository. The Tptpll will host the majority of the repository. On an intermediate scale, there is also considerable heterogeneity within stratigraphic units. This kind of heterogeneity can focus water toward one drift location while diverting it away from another. Flow concentration on this scale (i.e., across the interface between a mountain-scale model and drift-scale models) is referred to as “flow focusing.” Flow channeling and diversion of flow paths also happen within each rough-walled fracture where asperity contacts and locally larger fracture openings lead to small-scale redistribution of water within the fracture. In addition, asperity-induced flow instabilities may cause small-scale episodic flow within fractures, leading to high-frequency fluctuations. These factors are considered in the development of a prediction and abstraction for seepage quantification. Flow concentration effects on various scales are schematically shown in Figure 2-2. Flow concentration, flow focusing, and channeling effects are uncertain. Flow simulations using a two-dimensional discrete fracture network model (see Figure 2-3) show that the average spacing between flow paths in a layered system tends to increase with depth (i.e., flow becomes more concentrated with the increase of depth under gravity-driven flow conditions). (The flow characteristic may change abruptly at interfaces between hydrogeologic units, leading to some local flow dispersion on a smaller scale in the unit with higher fracture density.) Temporal fluctuations superimpose the spatial flow-channeling effects described above. The flux in a flow channel may be near steady state or episodic with a wide frequency spectrum, ranging from high-frequency fluctuations triggered by small flow instabilities to intermediate variabilities in percolation fluxes in response to changing weather conditions to long-term variations from climate changes. October 2003 2-4 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 Figure 2-2. Schematic of Flow-Channeling Effects on Various Scales October 2003 2-5 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 measured fracture data from Yucca Mountain (nonconnected fractures excluded). NOTE: This two-dimensional fracture network was generated based on statistical information derived from the field Figure 2-3. Two-Dimensional Fracture Network at Yucca Mountain (a) and Simulated Steady-State October 2003 Flux Distribution in the Fracture Network (b) The local (rather than average) percolation flux reaching the drift is the most important factor determining where and when seepage occurs, and the seepage rate. The spatial distribution of flow channels may change with the average percolation flux and may also change with time. Flow focusing could concentrate water onto a particular drift segment and lead to a flux that exceeds the seepage threshold. On the other hand, if flow is concentrated in one location, flow will be reduced in other areas leading to little or no seepage. The details of flow distribution on multiple scales are a major source of seepage prediction uncertainty, as discussed below. This uncertainty is accounted for in probabilistic TSPA calculations. The distribution of percolating water will be discussed in the technical basis document on unsaturated zone flow. The percolation flux used as a boundary condition for the seepage models is derived from UZ Flow Models and Submodels (BSC 2003c). Flow focusing factors estimated from an intermediate-scale flow focusing model (BSC 2001b, Section 6.4.2) are employed to account for intermediate-scale heterogeneity that is not represented in the layer-averaged UZ Flow Models and Submodels (BSC 2003c). Flow channeling due to small-scale heterogeneity is explicitly included, as discussed in Section 4.2. Formation Properties–The key formation properties determining the effectiveness of the capillary barrier are (1) the capillary strength and (2) the permeability tangential to the drift wall. Geologic formations with stronger capillarity and higher tangential permeability exhibit a higher seepage threshold (i.e., low seepage); whereas, a weaker capillary barrier effect (i.e., higher seepage) is expected if water retention is smaller or if the tangential permeability is insufficient to promote flow diversion. Porous formations with strong capillarity tend to have low permeability and vice versa, which is a correlation that reduces the probability of encountering parameter combinations conducive to extreme (low or high) seepage behavior, making seepage relatively uniform across different geologic units. However, this negative correlation between permeability and capillary strength 2-6 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 may not necessarily apply to a fractured system, specifically if considering the seepage process on the scale of a waste emplacement drift. A given permeability may result from a network consisting of a few large fractures or, alternatively, a network of many small, well-connected fractures. The first network with few large fractures would exhibit relatively weak capillarity, whereas the second network with many small fractures would have stronger capillarity. Moreover, if the predominant fracture orientation is aligned with the drift axis (see Section 4.2, Figure 4-2a), little or no tangential permeability is available and seepage is increased. For flow diversion to occur, the fracture system must have sufficient connectivity and permeability to provide the necessary effective diversion pathways in tangential direction around the drift. Heterogeneities in formation properties on the scale of a drift diameter or smaller may enhance seepage if they promote flow channeling and increase the probability of locally exceeding the seepage threshold. Intermediate-scale heterogeneities (from approximately 100 m to a drift diameter) may focus water into flow channels that either encounter or bypass the waste emplacement drifts. Large-scale heterogeneities may divert water (e.g., along contacts between hydrostratigraphic units) or concentrate it into local features (such as faults). Heterogeneities on these scales thus have roles in determining the fraction of waste packages encountering seepage and the seepage amount. The heterogeneous nature of the formation implies that certain regions are more prone to seepage than others, with some areas exhibiting properties that are strongly adverse to seepage. The impact of lithophysal cavities on flow and seepage is twofold: (1) lithophysal cavities are essentially obstacles to water flow because they act as capillary barriers, focusing the water that flows around them, and (2) lithophysal cavities intersected by the drift lead to a rough drift ceiling, potentially creating seepage points at local low points on the ceiling. Both effects tend to promote seepage. The capillarity and permeability of the fracture network alone do not determine seepage. Water emanating from the fracture network may not drip but be transported as film flow along the drift surface or evaporate (see Section 2.4). Hence, seepage is not only affected by the characteristics of the host rock but also by factors unrelated to the hydrogeologic properties of the fracture system. Drift Geometry and Drift-Wall Properties–The overall drift size and geometry can change the seepage threshold and the seepage amount. Generally, a large drift exhibits a significantly lower seepage threshold. More water accumulates in the high-saturation region near the drift boundary because it needs to move over a longer diversion distance around the wider opening. In a heterogeneous, fractured formation, the importance of drift shape and drift geometry may be diminished relative to that of flow channeling and local ponding (Birkholzer et al. 1999, pp. 372 to 379). The effectiveness of a capillary barrier is greatest if the shape of the cavity follows an equipotential surface. In a homogeneous medium, parabolic cavities are more efficient in preventing seepage than circular or flat-roofed openings. Breakouts in the drift ceiling, caused by rockfall and drift degradation, may change the overall drift geometry and lead to local low points in the ceiling, which may trap water, reduce or prevent flow diversion, and initiate seepage. In addition, small-scale surface roughness tends to increase seepage if the amplitude of October 2003 2-7 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 the irregularity is comparable to the boundary-layer thickness. The boundary-layer thickness is determined by the capillary rise in the fractures (i.e., it is on the order of a few centimeters). 2.3 THERMAL, HYDROLOGIC, CHEMICAL, AND MECHANICAL IMPACTS ON SEEPAGE 2.3.1 Introduction As outlined in Section 2.2, hydrogeologic properties (specifically permeability and capillary strength) and their spatial heterogeneity determine the flow diversion capacity of the fracture network and, thus, seepage behavior. Initially, the undisturbed rocks in the repository host units are likely to be altered as a result of stress redistribution during drift excavation, which typically leads to local opening of fractures and potentially the creation of new microfractures in the drift vicinity (BSC 2001a, Section 6.1.2.2; Wang and Elsworth 1999, pp. 752 to 756). These changes affect porosity, permeability, and capillarity of the fracture system in the vicinity of emplacement drifts. Later, the heat emanating from the radioactive material will induce changes as a result of coupled thermal-hydrologic-mechanical and thermal-hydrologic-chemical effects. Thermal expansion of the rock matrix will induce thermal stresses and associated aperture changes. Also, thermal effects will lead to dissolution and precipitation of minerals, affecting the porosity, permeability, and capillarity of the fracture system. 2.3.2 Excavation Effects Because of excavation, stress is redistributed and fractures are generally expected to dilate near the crown of the drift. Such fracture dilation depends on the orientation of the fracture set and generally occurs within one drift radius. An increase in fracture aperture generally causes an increase in fracture permeability and a decrease in capillary strength—both key parameters affecting seepage. The measured increase in permeability from preexcavation to postexcavation values reflects this excavation effect (Wang et al. 1999). 2.3.3 Drift Degradation It is possible that the initially circular-shaped open emplacement drifts will degrade with time as a result of thermal stress, seismic ground motion, and time-dependent degradation of rock strength (BSC 2003d). Thermal stresses are caused by the heat generated from the decaying nuclear waste. Significant stresses can also be caused by seismic ground motions. Time-dependent degradation of rock strength (joint mechanical properties) may be a result of over-stressing from thermal heating and of static fatigue of the rock resulting from stress corrosion mechanisms. These effects may lead to rock mass damage and rockfall into emplacement drifts, changing the drift shape and size. Depending on the type of rock, the stress conditions, and the time-dependent rock mechanical properties, damage to the drifts may be small, with sparse local rockfall from the ceiling of otherwise intact drift openings, or (in extreme cases) damage may result in partial or complete drift collapse, with rubble rock material filling the enlarged drifts. These changes affect the potential for drift seepage. Local breakouts in the drift ceiling may lead to geometry changes that can either increase seepage by reducing or preventing flow diversion around the opening (e.g., by creating low points) or reduce seepage by resulting in a drift geometry that promotes flow diversion (e.g., by creating a more parabolic drift shape through breakouts near the apex of the drift). The larger size and potentially different October 2003 2-8 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 shape of collapsed drifts can also reduce the potential for flow diversion; furthermore, the larger footprint of the collapsed drift leads to an increase in the total amount of percolation flux arriving at the drifts, which, in turn, can affect the total amount of seepage. In addition, the capillary-barrier effect at the drift wall may be affected by the rubble rock particles filling the opening because the capillary strength inside the opening will be different from the zero capillarity condition in the initially open drift. 2.3.4 Seepage under Thermal Conditions The heat generated by the decay of radioactive wastes will result in rock temperatures elevated for thousands of years after emplacement. For average rock properties, percolation flux, and heat load, the drift wall will be at above-boiling temperatures for approximately 1,000 years. Elevated temperatures (below boiling, but above ambient conditions) will prevail throughout the compliance period (BSC 2003b, Section 8). For the current repository design concept, these temperatures will be high enough to cause boiling conditions in the drift vicinity, giving rise to local water redistribution and altered flow paths. Key thermal-hydrologic processes occurring around a drift are shown schematically in Figure 2-4 for an idealized, circular-shaped drift. The figure indicates that heating of the rock will cause pore water in the rock matrix to boil and vaporize. The vapor will move away from the drift through the permeable fracture network, driven primarily by a pressure increase caused by boiling. In cooler regions away from the drift, the vapor will condense in the fractures, where it can drain either toward the heat source from above or shed around the drift into the zone below the heat source. Condensed water can also imbibe from fractures into the matrix, leading to increased liquid saturation in the rock matrix. With continuous heating, a superheated (above-boiling temperature) dryout zone will develop closest to the heat source, separated from the condensation zone by a nearly isothermal zone maintained nominally at the boiling temperature. This nearly isothermal zone is characterized by a continuous process of boiling, vapor transport, condensation, and migration of water back toward the heat source (vapor–liquid counter flow resulting from capillary forces or gravity drainage), a process often referred to as a heat pipe (Pruess et al. 1990). For the current repository design concept, the dryout zone around drifts will extend to a distance of approximately 5 to 10 m from the drift wall (BSC 2003b, Section 6.2). Boiling conditions in the rock are expected to exist for about 1,000 years after emplacement. While these values reflect average conditions, there may be significant spatial and temporal variability of the thermal-hydrologic conditions within the repository. One factor causing heterogeneity is the spatial and temporal variability directly related to the thermal load in different drift sections, stemming from heat output variations between individual waste packages and different emplacement times. Another factor is the heterogeneity of the formation properties and spatial distribution of the local percolation fluxes. Thermal rock properties, such as thermal conductivity, directly affect the conductive transport of heat. Hydrologic properties and local percolation fluxes, on the other hand, affect the significance of thermal-hydrologic coupling as they determine the effectiveness of convective heat transport. While heat conduction is the major component of energy transport in Yucca Mountain tuff, the impact of thermal-hydrologic coupling can be quite large. For example, a large percolation flux above a drift segment, combined with relatively high permeability, may cause heat-pipe effects that give rise to rock temperatures much lower and boiling periods much shorter than at average conditions (BSC 2003b, Section 6.2.1.4). October 2003 2-9 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 Repository Heating Figure 2-4. Schematic of Thermal-Hydrologic Processes Occurring in the Drift Vicinity as a Result of Heating of the rock in the drift vicinity can affect seepage in two different ways: 1. Boiling of water in the rock directly affects the seepage-relevant flow processes close to the drift wall. For above-boiling conditions, vaporization of percolating water in the fractured rock overlying the repository further reduces the potential for seepage. Percolating water is expected to boil off in the superheated rock zone before reaching the drift crown. Therefore, seepage is unlikely as long as boiling conditions exist. On the other hand, condensation forms a zone of elevated water saturation above the dryout zone. Water from this zone may be mobilized to flow rapidly down toward the drift, in particular during later stages with reduced heat output from the waste packages when the effect of vaporization has diminished. This flow mobilization may promote seepage. 2. Rock properties relevant for seepage may be affected from reversible and irreversible thermal, hydrologic, chemical, and mechanical effects. Thermal stress-induced changes tend to close existing fractures, leading to a general decrease in fracture permeability and porosity combined with an increase in fracture capillary strength. Aperture changes that occur during the thermal period could be fully reversible (i.e., these properties would recover to preemplacement values after the temperature has declined to ambient conditions). Thermal stresses could also induce permeability enhancement through fracture shear slip with accompanying shear dilation opening. Such permeability changes would be irreversible and remain after the temperature has declined to ambient conditions. Coupled thermal-hydrologic-chemical processes, such as mineral precipitation and dissolution in fractures and matrix, also have the potential to irreversibly modify permeability, porosity, and capillary strength of the system. The molar volumes of minerals created by hydrolysis reactions (i.e., anhydrous phases, such as feldspars, reacting with aqueous fluids to form hydrous minerals, such as October 2003 2-10 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 zeolites or clays) are commonly larger than the molar volumes of the primary reactant minerals. Consequently, dissolution-precipitation reactions commonly lead to porosity and permeability reductions. The extent of mineral-water reaction is controlled by the surface areas of the mineral phases in contact with the aqueous fluid, as well as heterogeneity in the initial distribution of minerals in the fractures. Therefore, changes in porosity and permeability caused by these processes may also be heterogeneously distributed. Typically, chemical effects on hydrologic properties are irreversible. As mentioned in Section 2.3.3, emplacement drifts may completely collapse in extreme cases as a result of thermal and seismic stresses and degradation of joint mechanical properties. The thermal conditions in a collapsed drift will be different from those in an open drift, mainly because the thermal-hydrologic processes in a drift filled with rock fragments are different from those in an open, air-filled drift. The extent to which these differences can be important for seepage under thermally elevated conditions is governed by the time at which significant drift collapse occurs. Significant differences should only be expected when drift collapse occurs during the boiling period. The impact of repository heat on the hydrologic, chemical, and mechanical conditions was examined in a heater experiment referred to as the Drift Scale Test (DST). A short description of the DST can be found in Section 3.3.1. The related modeling documented in Drift-Scale Coupled Processes (DST) and TH Seepage Models (BSC 2003b) is mainly used to corroborate the abstraction of coupled processes on the evaluation of seepage under thermal conditions, as discussed in Sections 4.6 and 4.8. 2.4 IN-DRIFT CONDITIONS Preclosure ventilation will cause partial rock drying in the drift vicinity and will also remove a significant amount of heat and moisture. While this relatively short ventilation period is expected to have minor impact on the postclosure performance of the repository, in-drift moisture conditions are important during seepage testing (see Sections 3.1 and 3.2) and the analysis of seepage-rate data (see Section 4.3). Reduced relative humidity in the underground opening leads to evaporation of water at the drift surface and the development of a dryout zone in the vicinity (5 to 10 m) of the cavity. In a liquid-release test at ambient conditions (or natural percolation during the ventilated period), part or all of the water reaching the ceiling of the opening may evaporate, depending on the evaporation potential in the drift and the wet area exposed to evaporation. The evaporation potential depends on the relative humidity in the opening and the thickness of a diffusive boundary layer at the drift surface, which in turn is governed by the air velocity in the ventilated drift. Total evaporation depends on the evaporation potential and the wetted area available for evaporative mass transfer. Wetting of the drift ceiling depends on the formation properties, the spreading mechanism along the drift surface, and evaporation itself. Under natural percolation conditions, evaporation in a ventilated drift prevents sufficient wetting at the drift surface and thus seepage. However, the development of a wet spot and its relation to in-drift conditions has been studied during the seepage tests conducted in several niches and along the ECRB Cross-Drift (see Section 3.1). October 2003 2-11 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 Temporal reduction of the wet spot size during continued water release can be correlated to increased evaporation as a result of changes in the ventilation regime, highlighting the coupled nature of the processes. The importance of evaporation effects on the interpretation of seepage data from liquid-release tests conducted under ambient temperature conditions has been recognized. The issue has been addressed by (1) increasing relative humidity in the testing area (using bulkheads, end curtains, and humidifiers), (2) monitoring relative humidity and evaporation from a free water surface (pan experiments), and (3) inclusion of evaporation into the process model used to analyze seepage-rate data. If evaporation is significantly reduced, wetting of the drift surface is expected. Wet surfaces and film flow are an integral part of the capillary barrier concept, providing evidence that the capillary barrier is engaged. Wet surfaces were observed in the passive Cross-Drift hydrologic test (see Section 3.2). Additional discussion of evaporation issues can be found in Appendix C. October 2003 2-12 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 3. FIELD OBSERVATIONS AND SEEPAGE TESTING DATA 3.1 LIQUID-RELEASE TESTING 3.1.1 Description of Liquid-Release Tests Drift-scale liquid-release tests were initiated in 1997 to investigate potential seepage into an underground opening representing a waste emplacement drift. Short drifts (ranging from 6.3 m to 15.0 m in length and referred to as niches) were constructed at various locations along the ESF and the ECRB Cross-Drift. Boreholes were installed prior to and after the niches were excavated to facilitate characterization of the rock using air-injection tests and investigation of seepage processes using liquid-release tests. The locations of the niches were chosen so that they represent different hydrogeologic units and rocks with different fracture statistics. A second study, referred to as the systematic borehole testing program, was initiated in 2000 to complement the niche seepage experiments. The purpose of the program is to provide broad, systematic coverage and characterization of the host rock by performing air-injection and liquid-release tests in approximately 20-m-long boreholes drilled at a 15° angle upward and parallel to the drift axis into the ceiling every 30 m along the ECRB Cross-Drift. Test locations are illustrated in Figure 3-1. The purpose of these experiments was to release water from borehole intervals located above drift sections or niches and to collect the water that seeps into the openings. These seepage-rate data contain information about the seepage process reflecting most of the factors discussed in Section 2. They have been analyzed to infer seepage-relevant, model-related effective parameters on the drift scale. The tests were generally performed by (1) injecting air to characterize the permeability distribution, (2) introducing water from a borehole interval above the opening, (3) recording the induced seepage, (4) monitoring temperature and relative humidity, (5) observing the formation and growth of the wetted spot at the ceiling and (6) studying the general seepage behavior. Multiple liquid-release tests were performed in the niches and along the ECRB Cross-Drift to observe, document, and quantify any water migrating to and seeping into the underground openings. The tests were performed by sealing a short section of the borehole above the opening using an inflatable packer system and then releasing water at a specified rate into the test interval. Any water that migrated from the borehole to the ceiling and dripped into the opening was captured and measured. Qualitative observations during the tests helped provide an understanding and corroboration of flow diversion and seepage concepts. Moreover, a quantitative analysis of the seepage-rate data provided calibrated values of seepage-relevant formation parameters (see Section 4.3). The effectiveness of the capillary barrier and the presence of a seepage threshold can be directly observed from liquid-release tests conducted at different rates, which show that seepage ceases at a nonzero injection rate, referred to as a seepage threshold. Seepage tests are further described in Appendices B and C. October 2003 3-1 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 Source: BSC 2003e, Figure 4. NOTE: The shape of the openings is approximate. (In this and other figures, niches are labeled by their construction station number (i.e., Niche 2 is designated as Niche 3650, Niche 3 is Niche 3107, Niche 4 is Niche 4788, and Niche 5 is Niche 1620). ECRB = Enhanced Characterization of the Repository Block. Figure 3-1. Schematic Geologic Map Showing Approximate Location of Niches and Systematic Testing October 2003 3-2 Boreholes SYBT-ECRB-LA#1–3 3.1.2 Air-Permeability Testing The purpose of the air-injection tests was to estimate permeabilities as input data for the stochastic generation of heterogeneous permeability fields. The tests were performed by isolating a short section of a borehole using an inflatable packer system and then injecting compressed air at a constant rate into the isolated injection interval. The pressure buildup in the injection interval and in nearby similarly isolated observation intervals was monitored with time until steady conditions were reached, typically within a few minutes. Air injection was terminated after reaching steady pressures, and the decline in air pressure was then monitored as it recovered to its initial pretest condition. Air-permeability values were derived from the steady pressure data by means of a commonly used analytical solution (BSC 2001a, Section 6.1.2.1). No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 Permeabilities determined from air-injection tests are considered representative of the absolute permeability of the excavation-disturbed zone around the opening. Since air-injection tests are a standard method to obtain permeability values, the use of these values as the basis for model calibration, seepage prediction, and the development of probability distributions for TSPA ensures consistency and reduces a potential bias that would likely be introduced by relying on different measurement methods. Air permeabilities were measured before and after mining of the niches. The results showed that permeability around the niches and the ECRB Cross-Drift was affected by excavation (BSC 2001a, Section 6.1.2.2; Wang and Elsworth 1999, pp. 752 to 756). Since seepage is determined by the formation properties and excavation effects in the immediate vicinity of the opening, it is reasonable to use postexcavation air-permeability data for seepage calculations. 3.1.3 Relative-Humidity Monitoring Reduced relative humidity in the underground openings leads to partial evaporation of the water that reaches the cavity wall, potentially affecting seepage. To diminish, control, and quantify this effect, relative humidity in the closed-off niches was artificially increased to reduce the evaporation potential, and relative humidity was monitored. Figure 3-2 shows an example of temperature and relative humidity data measured in Niche 4 (also referred to as Niche 4788). Source: BSC 2001a, Figure 6.2.1-5. Figure 3-2. Temperature and Relative Humidity Measurements in Niche 4 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts October 2003 3-3 Revision 2 In a closed-off and humidified niche, potential evaporation at the wall or in the capture system is expected to be small compared to the amount of water being released. Seepage experiments in the middle nonlithophysal zone (Tptpmn) of the Topopah Spring welded unit were conducted in niches that were closed off by a bulkhead, which reduces air circulation and thus leads to comparatively high relative humidity. Moreover, a humidifier was used in some of the experiments to increase relative humidity to a value close to 100 percent. The measured evaporation rates and a related sensitivity analysis indicate that evaporation effects in the closed-off niches are insignificant and can be neglected in the analysis of seepage-rate data (BSC 2003e, Section 6.7). On the other hand, relative humidity in the open ECRB Cross-Drift is significantly lower and exhibits relatively strong fluctuations depending on weather and ventilation conditions. Evaporation-rate data from pan experiments were used to estimate the thickness of the diffusive boundary layer, which affects the evaporation potential. Evaporation in the ventilated ECRB Cross-Drift was found to be a greater fraction of the observed seepage rate, compared to the niche tests and was taken into account for the analysis of seepage tests conducted in the open drift. The monitoring of relative humidity is further discussed in Appendix C. 3.1.4 Liquid-Release Tests in Niches and along the Enhanced Characterization of the Repository Block Multiple liquid-release tests were performed in Niches 2, 3, 4, and 5 (also referred to as Niches 3650, 3107, 4788, and 1620, respectively), as well as in the systematic testing boreholes SYBT-ECRB-LA#1 to 3. Water was released at various rates from a short section of the borehole above the opening. Any water that migrated from the borehole to the ceiling and dripped into the opening was captured and measured. In many intervals, multiple liquid-release tests were conducted using different release rates with different durations of inactivity between individual test events. Only a very small amount of water was released in early tests conducted in Niche 2. To reduce the impact of storage effects and to test a more representative portion of the fracture network involved in flow diversion around the opening, later tests in Niches 3, 4, and 5 and along the ECRB Cross-Drift used significantly more water in an attempt to reach near-steady seepage conditions. These later tests were used for parameter estimation purposes, as described in Section 4.3. Figure 3-3 shows contours of the wetting front spreading across the niche ceiling during a liquid-release test. Water issued from the formation through fractures and micro-cracks and spread along the rough and dusty surface. Dripping was initiated at discrete points. As indicated in Figure 3-4, seepage rates measured during a representative liquid-release test appear to stabilize after about 4 days of continuous water injection. In this example, the high release rate resulted in a near-steady seepage rate that was approximately half the release rate. Appendices B and C contain additional information on seepage testing. October 2003 3-4 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 Source: BSC 2001a, Figure 6.2.1-7. NOTE: Blue contours are outlines of wetting fronts. Red numbers indicate ordering of the wetting fronts in time. The pink bar indicates the approximate position of the release interval in the borehole above the niche, projected onto the crown. Figure 3-3. Wetting-Front Sequences Overlying Fracture Map of Niche 4 Crown for a Representative Liquid-Release Test October 2003 3-5 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 Source: BSC 2001a, Figure 6.2.1-6. Figure 3-4. Seepage Rates Observed during a Representative Liquid-Release Test Conducted in October 2003 3-6 Niche 4 3.1.5 Mass Balance in Niche 5 The flow-diversion capability of the capillary barrier is the mechanism of interest for the estimation of reduced seepage into waste emplacement drifts. The fate of water during a transient liquid-release test is difficult to assess (i.e., the difference between the release rate and seepage rate cannot be attributed to flow diversion with certainty unless all the water used in a liquid-release test is accounted for in a full mass balance). Obtaining a complete mass balance in a transient test requires estimation of the amount of water that (1) is injected, (2) seeps into the opening, (3) evaporates from the rock surface and the collection system, (4) is stored in the formation between the injection point and the opening, (5) bypasses the opening through known and unknown geologic features, and (6) is diverted around the opening on account of the capillary-barrier effect. Components 1 and 2 can be directly measured with sufficient accuracy. Reliable estimates of Component 3 can be obtained from relative-humidity or evaporation-rate measurements. Alternatively, the evaporation potential can be minimized, as described in Section 3.1.3. For Component 4, the amount of water stored in the formation, is difficult to obtain. However, the tests can be run to near-steady-state conditions, and a rate balance (as opposed to a mass balance) can be performed. Finally, measuring Components 5 and 6 requires capturing the water in a secondary water collection system. No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 Performing such a water mass balance was considered for the Alcove 8–Niche 3 test (see Section 3.1.6) but was not performed due to the large scale of the test and the correspondingly large secondary collection system that would be required. Instead, an attempt was made to obtain a mass balance in the Niche 5 seepage tests. The main element of this attempt was the construction of a slot on the side of the niche to capture the water that is diverted around the opening (i.e., Component 6). Relative humidity in Niche 5 was increased to reduce the contribution of Component 3, and a long-term liquid-release test was performed to minimize storage effects (Component 4). The relatively close proximity of the injection point to the drift ceiling reduces the risk that water bypasses the niche through unknown, unique geologic features (Component 5). Since near seepage conditions were achieved, a rate balance (rather than total mass balance) was performed, which is more appropriate in light of the eventual estimation of near steady seepage rates under repository conditions. Water was collected at the side of the niche during two seepage tests conducted in Niche 5. However, because of difficulties in excavating the slot and installing the capture system, it was not possible to visually confirm that the water collected in the slot near the wall was derived entirely from seepage into the slot. While qualitative evidence was obtained that the capillary barrier was capable of diverting water around the niche, a quantitative mass or rate balance based on the measured data alone could not be obtained. The seepage predictions, therefore, continue to rely on (1) established understanding of the physics underlying flow diversion around a capillary barrier, (2) extensive site-specific and seepage-related characterization data, (3) qualitative evidence demonstrating flow diversion and water exclusion, (4) calibration and validation of a physically based process model that captures all components of the mass balance (storage, evaporation, flow diversion, and seepage), and (5) propagation of uncertainties and variabilities and probabilistic treatment of seepage in TSPA calculations. The mass-balance issue is further described in Appendix C. 3.1.6 Alcove 8–Niche 3 Testing Evaluation of seepage is among the multiple objectives of the ongoing testing at Alcove 8-Niche 3. Alcove 8 (located in the ECRB Cross-Drift, see Figure 3-5) was excavated and prepared to perform liquid-releases tests into a fault and a network of fractures. Approximately 20 m below Alcove 8, Niche 3 (located in the main drift of the ESF at construction station 3107) serves as the site for monitoring of seepage. The interior of the niche was instrumented with trays for seepage collection. In addition, a series of boreholes surrounding Niche 3 was instrumented with sensors to detect the arrival of the wetting front. Liquid water and tracers were released at the floor of Alcove 8 (located in the upper lithophysal zone, Tptpul) along approximately 5 m of an exposed fault. The amount of water seeping from the fault into Niche 3 (which is located in the middle nonlithophysal zone, Tptpmn) and tracer concentrations were monitored as functions of time. An example is presented in Figure 3-6, showing the seepage rate is approximately 10 percent of the injection rate. Seepage-related issues are further discussed in Appendix C. Pretest predictions are described in Appendix E. October 2003 3-7 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 Figure 3-5. Schematic Illustration of the Alcove 8–Niche 3 Test Configuration October 2003 3-8 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 Source: BSC 2003c, Figures 7.6-1 and 7.6-2. Figure 3-6. Infiltration Rate in Alcove 8 (a) and Seepage Rate in Niche 3 Test (b) 3.2 MOISTURE MONITORING IN NONVENTILATED DRIFT SECTIONS 3.2.1 Description of Passive Cross-Drift Hydrologic Tests and Alcove 7 The terminal section of the ECRB Cross-Drift was closed off by a series of bulkheads to minimize ventilation effects (see Figure 3-7). The 918-m-long drift section is located in the Topopah Spring lower lithophysal (Tptpll) and the lower nonlithophysal (Tptpln) tuff units; the drift section is intersected by the Solitario Canyon fault. Within the isolated sections between bulkheads, barometric pressure, relative humidity, and temperature are currently being measured at various stations to provide information on moisture dynamics. Psychrometers were installed along seven boreholes to measure the water potential and, thus, the initial extent and later rewetting of the dryout zone in the fractured rock. Electrical resistance probes were laid out at 0.5 m intervals to measure saturation changes along the drift wall. Six water collection units were installed. Periodically, the bulkhead doors sealing the nonventilated sections have been opened for observations. These observations have included sampling of liquid water from these water-collection units. Although the quantity of water has not been measured, water samples have been collected and subsequently analyzed to evaluate whether the water originated from seepage or condensation (see Section 3.2.4). An experiment similar to that described above has been conducted in Alcove 7 since 1998. Bulkhead doors were installed 64 m and 132 m from the entrance of the alcove. Ambient temperature, barometric pressure, and relative humidity were monitored. The bulkheads were opened after being closed for extended periods of time. Evidence of moisture was observed, including drip spots on the drip collection sheets, moisture drops on the utility lines and on the shotcrete around the bulkheads, and moisture spots in the dust on one instrument enclosure. The rock in the crown had a dark, moist appearance, and the fractures in the rib appeared wet. Although moisture was present, it was not possible to collect water for analysis. The Alcove 7 test results are summarized in Appendix C. 3-9 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts October 2003 Revision 2 NOTE: TBM = tunnel boring machine; ERP = electrical resistance probe. Figure 3-7. Schematic Illustration of the Location of Monitoring Stations in the Enhanced Characterization of the Repository Block and the Tunnel Boring Machine Results of in situ moisture monitoring since the construction of the ESF and ECRB Cross-Drift and the DST (see Section 3.3.1) indicate no direct observations of seepage. However, moisture has been observed in nonventilated sections of the ECRB Cross-Drift and Alcove 7. The origin of these moisture observations is uncertain. It is expected that moisture will be released from the partially saturated rockmass in contact with the drift wall by evaporation processes. Given the drifts are ventilated, the relative humidity in the drifts prior to the ventilation being turned off is significantly less than 100 percent; therefore, a potential gradient exists to allow moisture vapor to be transported from the rock matrix into the drift. This moisture vapor flux, once it enters the drift, can be transported along the drift and condense on cooler surfaces. This gradient and the resultant net influx of rock moisture into the drifts are transient phenomena related to the change in moisture and thermal conditions in the drift. At steady state, after the drifts have been removed from transient humidity and pressure conditions, the relative humidity is expected to stabilize at 100 percent. At steady state, the principal source of liquid water is expected to be derived from seepage water. Prior to steady state, when in-drift conditions are less than 100 percent humidity, moisture in the drift derived from evaporation in the rock wall may exceed the seepage influx. This moisture may condense on cooler surfaces, leading to liquid water. October 2003 3-10 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 3.2.2 Evidence of Ventilation Effects The observations of changes in water potential, saturation, and in-drift atmospheric conditions after closure of the bulkheads confirm the strong impact of ventilation and reduced relative humidity on the hydrologic conditions in the immediate vicinity of the drift. The matrix is partially dried out up to a few meters from the drift surface. Even though the relative humidity increases rapidly after closing of the bulkheads, the water potential data indicate that the rewetting of the matrix is a slow process. Figure 3-8 shows water potentials as a function of time and distance from the drift surface. Low water potentials up to a distance of about 1.5 m from the borehole collar indicate the extent of the dryout zone as a result of drift ventilation. After installation of the bulkheads, water potentials increase over a period of 1.5 years. In-drift conditions (temperature, relative humidity, and barometric pressure) not only show temporal variations but also spatial differences along the tunnel section, particularly when heat sources are present. The resulting gradients constitute driving forces for in-drift moisture redistribution. Figure 3-9 shows temperature fluctuations as a function of time at four stations along the nonventilated section of the ECRB Cross-Drift. Source: BSC 2003f, Figure 6.10.2-2b. Figure 3-8. Water Potential Measurement as a Function of Time and Distance from the Drift Surface October 2003 3-11 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 Source: BSC 2003f, Figure 6.10.2-4. Figure 3-9. Temporal and Spatial Variations in Temperature within Nonventilated Section of the October 2003 Enhanced Characterization of the Repository Block 3.2.3 Observations Related to Wet Zones Wet zones observed in the closed-off sections of the ECRB Cross-Drift provide information regarding potential seepage and in-drift moisture redistribution. During the entries behind the bulkheads, droplets and other moisture conditions were observed on rock bolts, ventilation ducts, utility conduits, wire meshes, and painted patches of tunnel walls. Puddles of water were observed on the conveyor belt, and drip cloths showed evidence of dripping. Observed rust spots and organic growths indicate the prolonged presence of moisture. The observations of moisture on impervious (nonporous) surfaces suggest that, at least partially, the moisture originated from condensation. The near–100 percent relative humidity in the ECRB Cross-Drift and local thermal gradients (partly induced by electrical equipment in the closed-off drift sections) are the likely causes for the observed condensation. Although it is possible that the dripping may have resulted from seepage of formation water, the geochemical analyses presented below support the conclusion that this is most likely condensation water. 3-12 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 3.2.4 Chemical and Isotopic Water Analyses Determining the origin of the moisture observed in the closed-off sections of the ECRB Cross- Drift is of interest because it relates to the process inducing dripping (condensation or seepage) and affects the chemistry of the water potentially contacting waste packages. Chemical analyses and isotopic measurements were conducted on the water samples collected during the periodic entries into the nonventilated sections of the ECRB Cross-Drift. The chemical analyses included major anionic and cationic constituents (such as bromide, chloride, and lithium). The initial water samples collected from the puddles on the conveyor belt were dark in color. Because the surface of the conveyor belt was covered by dust and rock fragments, the chemical analyses of these samples were not expected to provide meaningful signature about the source of water found in the puddles. Subsequent samples were taken from clean containers placed on top of the conveyor belt. These samples were found to be low in chloride and silica content, characteristic of condensates. The samples were also found to lack the chemical signature of the construction water that was spiked with 20 mg/L of lithium bromide. While these data clearly show that part of the observed moisture originated from condensation, they do not rule out the possibility that some of these waters are of mixed origins. The hydrogen (äD) and oxygen (ä18O) isotope compositions were also analyzed. The äD values range from .48‰ to .9‰, and the ä18O values range from .3‰ to .10.7‰. These values are higher than those found in construction water. The lag time between opening of bulkheads and sample collection (3 to 4 hours) is sufficient to result in a significant degree of evaporation of the samples. As seen in Figure 3-10, all samples from the ECRB Cross-Drift are shifted from the global meteoric water line. The offset is characteristic of waters that have undergone some degree of evaporation. The same degree of shifts for both the contaminated samples and the relatively clean samples may indicate that approximately the same amount of evaporation occurred. The geochemical and isotopic analyses of water collected in the nonventilated ECRB Cross-Drift seem to indicate that condensation is a source of the dripping water. 3.2.5 Summary Moisture monitoring in nonventilated sections of the ECRB Cross-Drift and ESF is an ongoing part of the field testing program. Observations of hydrologic and thermodynamic conditions in the drift itself and in the nearby rock lead to the following seepage-related findings: 1. Ventilation effects in ventilated drift sections have a significant impact on seepage, mainly through evaporation of potential seepage water at the drift surface but also through the development of a dryout zone around the opening. 2. Once ventilation effects are reduced or eliminated, the relative humidity of the initially dry in-drift environment generally increases in a short time period. 3. The high relative humidity in closed-off drift section leads to conditions that facilitate in-drift moisture redistribution processes, which may be associated with condensation October 2003 3-13 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 of water on surfaces, inducing dripping. These processes are likely to occur even in the presence of only small temperature gradients. 4. The presence of water on nonporous surfaces and the chemistry and isotopic composition of water samples suggest that the water accumulations in the ECRB Cross-Drift originated from condensate. However, minor contributions from seepage water, masked by condensate, are possible based on currently available information. The observations in the nonventilated section of the ECRB Cross-Drift are presented in Appendices B and C. Appendix C also summarizes results from the tests in Alcove 7. Source: BSC 2003f, Figure 6.10.2-9. NOTE: Also plotted is the isotopic composition of construction water, two pore water samples extracted from core samples from Alcove 5 and the Global Meteoric Water Line. Figure 3-10. Plot of the Hydrogen and Oxygen Isotope Compositions of Water Samples Collected from October 2003 the Enhanced Characterization of the Repository Block 3-14 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 3.3 COUPLED PROCESSES TESTING 3.3.1 Drift Scale Test As discussed in Sections 2.4 and 2.6, seepage is partly determined by the properties of the fractured rock. The properties may be altered as a result of coupled effects induced by heating of the repository. For example, increased temperatures lead to mechanical deformations that change the hydrologic properties of the fracture network (BSC 2003g). Moreover, mineral dissolution and precipitation during the thermal period may temporarily or permanently affect the apertures of fractures in the immediate vicinity of the waste emplacement drifts (BSC 2003h). These coupled effects during repository heating have been studied using numerical simulation and the DST, which is the largest underground thermal test carried out to date in the ESF. The purpose of the DST is to evaluate the coupled thermal, hydrologic, chemical, and mechanical processes that take place in unsaturated fractured tuff over a range of temperatures (approximately 25°C to 200°C). Details regarding the DST layout, borehole orientations, operation of the test, and measurements performed (as well as their uncertainties) are discussed in the Thermal Testing Measurements Report (BSC 2002b, Section 6.3) and Drift Scale Test As-Built Report (CRWMS M&O 1998). In brief, the DST consists of an approximately 50-m-long drift that is 5 m in diameter. Nine electrical canister heaters were placed in this drift to simulate nuclear-waste-bearing containers. Electrical heaters were also placed in a series of horizontal boreholes (wing heaters) drilled perpendicularly outward from the central axis to both sides of the drift. These heaters were emplaced to simulate the effect of adjacent emplacement drifts. The DST heaters were activated on December 3, 1997, with a planned period of 4 years of heating, followed by 4 years of cooling. After just over 4 years, the heaters were switched off on January 14, 2002, and since that time the test area has been slowly cooling. Figure 3-11 shows a schematic view of the test layout with the main heater tunnel, the wing heaters, and the array of observation boreholes monitoring temperature, as well as chemical, mechanical, and hydrologic variables. Data on the evolution of gas phase, liquid phase and solid phase compositions, changes in water content and air permeabilities, and rock deformations collected during the DST were used to validate the related coupled models on thermal, hydrologic, chemical, and mechanical processes, as discussed in Sections 4.6 and 4.8. No seepage has been observed during the DST. This observation is consistent with the effect of the vaporization barrier described in Section 1.5. However, the absence of observed seepage should not be directly used to evaluate seepage into repository drifts because the potential for seepage in the DST may have been reduced as a result of vapor losses through the bulkheads (BSC 2003b, Section 6.4.3.2). Property changes induced by elevated temperatures as inferred from direct observations and associated modeling of the DST were examined for their impact on seepage, as discussed in Sections 4.6 and 4.8. October 2003 3-15 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 Source: BSC 2002b, Figure 6.3-2. Note: ERP = electrical resistance probe; ESF = Exploratory Studies Facility Figure 3-11. Three-Dimensional Perspective of the As-Built Borehole Configuration of the Drift Scale October 2003 3-16 Test 3.3.2 Fracture Sealing Experiment A laboratory fracture sealing experiment was designed to evaluate the effects of condensate reflux through a fracture network and into a boiling environment. Two saw-cut blocks of welded rhyolite ash-flow tuff, measuring 31.7 cm tall, 16.2 cm wide, and 3.2 cm thick, were separated to create a vertical planar fracture. Heating was accomplished through the use of electrical resistance heaters mounted directly on the sides of the blocks. A vertical temperature gradient was established within the block assembly, with a temperature of 80°C at the top and 130°C at the bottom. Temperatures were monitored throughout the experiment. After steady-state chemical conditions were attained in a plug-flow reactor, a portion of the water generated from the reactor was flowed at a rate of 10.8 mL/hr into the top of the fracture. After 5 days, the fracture began to seal, as evidenced by a declining outflow rate, leaks in the inlet side of the fracture, and the need for increased pressure to maintain a constant inlet flow rate. The aperture was effectively sealed. No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 After cooling, the fracture was opened and examined to determine the location and nature of secondary mineral formation (Figure 3-12). The precipitate (identified as mainly amorphous silica) was deposited almost exclusively at temperatures exceeding 100°C. Bridging structures of amorphous silica that formed during the experiment in both the saw-cut fracture and a natural fracture appear to obstruct fluid flow within the fracture system. These same processes could result in the development of a precipitation cap above the heated drift, potentially reducing seepage (see also discussion in Section 4.8). The fast and complete sealing seen in this laboratory experiment may be a result of the fact that a single fracture has been tested. The high thermal gradient imposed on the sample may also have accelerated the sealing phenomenon. Source: BSC 2002b, Figure 7.3-2. NOTE: Scale bars are 0.5 mm. Figure 3-12. Bridging Structures (a) in an Opened Planar Fracture and (b) in a Crosscutting Fracture 3.4 MINERAL DEPOSITIONS IN LITHOPHYSAL CAVITIES Observations of naturally occurring calcite and opal precipitation in lithophysal cavities (BSC 2002c, Section 6.10.1; Paces et al. 2001; Marshall et al. 2003) can be used to estimate long-term seepage rates into these small openings. Calcite precipitates from downward-percolating meteoric water because of (1) evaporation, (2) CO2 outgassing as a result of the geothermal gradient, and (3) interaction with a gas phase containing less CO2 than the gas with which the water was last equilibrated. Considering these calcite-precipitation mechanisms and using certain water-to-calcite ratios, seepage into lithophysal cavities was estimated from calcite-deposition data. October 2003 3-17 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 The calcite depositions on lithophysal cavity floors may not originate from dripping water (i.e., seepage); in fact, there is a lack of evidence of dripping from cavity ceilings (absence of stalactites or stalagmites at any scale), even where fractures containing coatings intersect lithophysae ceilings (Whelan et al. 2002, p. 744). This observation is consistent with the capillary barrier concept. Even if making the assumption that all calcite deposited in lithophysal cavities originated from seepage, the data indicate that (1) not all lithophysal cavities encountered seepage, and (2) seepage flux derived from mineral deposits is a very small fraction of percolation flux. Both conclusions corroborate the general concept of a capillary barrier reducing seepage below the value of the percolation flux. Additional discussion of the analysis of secondary minerals in Appendix C. 3.5 ABSENCE OF SEEPAGE IN VENTILATED DRIFTS So far, no dripping of natural percolation water has been observed in any of the ventilated openings at Yucca Mountain (Trautz and Wang 2002). While this finding can be considered consistent with the current understanding of the capillary diversion capacity of the fractured formation, the absence of seepage can also be explained by evaporation effects. The significant evaporation potential of the dry drift atmosphere is evident not only from theoretical considerations, but also from temporal observations of wet spots observed at the drift ceiling during liquid-release tests conducted in the ECRB Cross-Drift (see discussion of Figure 3-3 above) and the fact that a damp looking feature observed immediately after the dry excavation of Niche 1 (also referred to as Niche 3566) dried up before a bulkhead could be installed to increase the relative humidity in the opening. The damp looking feature was observed along a vertical wall; that is, it did not induce seepage. The feature did not reappear after sealing the niche with a bulkhead. Because the evaporation potential in ventilated openings at Yucca Mountain evidently exceeds the seepage potential, an effort has been made to maximize relative humidity in the niches designated for seepage testing (see Section 3.1.3) in Alcove 7 and in the ECRB Cross-Drift (see Section 3.2). These tests and the related modeling studies confirm the impact of evaporation on the determination of seepage. 3.6 NATURAL ANALOGS Natural analogs, such as those reported in Natural Analogue Synthesis Report (BSC 2002d, Section 8), provide evidence that the concept of water exclusion from underground openings is consistent with the process that actually occurs in caves, lava tubes, rock shelters, and buildings. The qualitative evidence for water exclusion and flow diversion was substantiated by quantitative seepage measurements in limestone caves. These studies show that seepage is considerably smaller than the pertinent percolation flux (BSC 2002d, Section 8.2), corroborating the seepage testing and modeling results at Yucca Mountain. Calcite-deposition data in lithophysal cavities (see Section 3.4) can be considered a natural analog at Yucca Mountain itself that further corroborates the concept. October 2003 3-18 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 4. SEEPAGE MODELING AND ABSTRACTION 4.1 PURPOSE AND GENERAL APPROACH A number of conceptual, analytical, and numerical models have been developed to help understand seepage-related processes and phenomena and to determine site-specific, seepage-relevant formation parameters. Some of the models are concerned with simulating in situ seepage tests (BSC 2003e), while others were developed for the prediction of seepage into intact and degraded waste emplacement drifts under ambient and thermal conditions (BSC 2003i; BSC 2003h; BSC 2003a). These drift-scale seepage models are linked to other models on different scales, specifically the mountain-scale model of the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain (BSC 2003c), models considering the coupled thermal-hydrologic-chemical (BSC 2003h) and thermal-hydrologic-mechanical (BSC 2003g) processes, scale-transition models providing flow-focusing factors (BSC 2001b, Section 6.4.2), as well as small-scale models evaluating flow within individual fractures (BSC 2003h). Quantitative and qualitative results from these process models are used in the seepage abstraction step (BSC 2003a) to arrive at a reasonable approach to handling seepage in TSPA calculations. The general approach followed to analyze data from seepage experiments conducted at Yucca Mountain and to arrive at a calibrated and validated predictive seepage model is based on the recognition that (1) detailed simulation of individual seeps is not necessary to estimate average seepage rates into waste emplacement drifts, (2) certain factors affecting seepage can be lumped into effective parameters, (3) calibrating and validating a model against data from seepage experiments provides confidence that the model captures the relevant processes, (4) estimating effective parameters partly compensates for processes and features that are not explicitly considered in the model, and (5) the estimated parameters can be directly used in a predictive model that uses a consistent conceptualization. The main advantage of this approach is that it relies directly on seepage-rate data, which inherently contain information about the relevant processes. Also, the calibration data (seepage rates on the scale of a drift section) are very similar to the quantity of interest for the subsequent predictions. The consistency between the calibration model used to derive seepage-relevant parameters and the predictive model used to forecast seepage minimizes conceptual differences. The appropriateness of the selected method and its potential advantages over alternative approaches are further discussed in Appendix D. As discussed above, the seepage models are based on data showing seepage-relevant processes under in situ conditions; these data were described in Section 3. Some of these data were directly used to develop and calibrate the models. For example, air permeabilities (see Section 3.1.2) were used to generate and condition heterogeneous permeability fields for the seepage model. They were also used to derive statistical measures representing uncertainty and variability of this important, seepage-relevant parameter (see Section 4.9). Evaporation-rate and relative-humidity data (see Section 3.1.3) were used to determine the evaporative boundary layer thickness, which is part of a submodel used for the interpretation of seepage tests conducted in the ventilated ECRB Cross-Drift. Seepage-rate data measured during liquid-release tests (see Section 3.1.4) were the main data used for calibration of a drift-scale seepage model. Additional seepage-rate data were used for testing the capability of the calibrated model to make predictions October 2003 4-1 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 under different conditions and at different locations. Data from the DST were used to corroborate the conceptual model supporting the abstraction of thermal-hydrologic-mechanical and thermal-hydrologic-chemical effects (see Sections 4.6 and 4.8 below). The development of the seepage models involves the following steps: 1. Geostatistical parameters of the permeability field are determined from the results of air-injection test data. 2. Multiple realizations of the permeability field are generated, each of which is consistent with the geostatistical properties of the measured air permeabilities representing the excavation-disturbed zone in the drift vicinity and are mapped onto the computational grid. 3. A numerical model is developed for the simulation of liquid-release tests conducted in niches and along the ECRB Cross-Drift. 4. Seepage-relevant, model-related capillary-strength parameters are determined by calibrating the models against data from liquid-release tests. 5. The model is tested by comparing predicted seepage rates to observed data from seepage experiments not used for model calibration. This step provides confidence that the model is capable of predicting the seepage behavior above and below the seepage threshold. 6. A conceptually consistent model is developed for simulating seepage into waste emplacement drifts. Drift seepage is evaluated for ranges of percolation flux and other seepage-relevant hydrogeologic properties. 7. Sensitivity analyses are performed to examine the impact of drift degradation, ground support, above-boiling conditions during the thermal period, and thermal-hydrologic-chemical effects. 8. The results from Steps 6 and 7, along with other information on uncertainty and variability, are combined in the abstraction, providing the basis for a probabilistic evaluation of seepage in TSPA calculations. Issues related to the general modeling approach are addressed in Appendix D. The following sections describe the drift-scale models developed to estimate seepage-relevant formation parameters and to make predictive seepage calculations for TSPA. 4.2 CONCEPTUAL AND NUMERICAL MODELS The drift-scale numerical seepage models consider three-dimensional flow through the unsaturated fracture network and seepage into the niches or the ECRB Cross-Drift. The fractured rock is conceptualized as a heterogeneous continuum with effective fracture permeabilities assigned to each grid block. A number of processes affecting seepage (such as film flow along the drift surface, impact of drift-wall roughness, and small-scale effects of October 2003 4-2 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 discrete fractures terminating at the drift ceiling) are not explicitly modeled but are lumped into an effective capillary-strength parameter determined by calibrating the model against seepage-rate data, which contain the relevant information about these effects. This conceptualization and approach are considered a suitable basis for a model designed to make predictions of seepage averaged over a drift section of the length of a waste package. The numerical process model used for reproducing seepage-rate data from liquid-release tests and to predict seepage into waste emplacement drifts solves the Richards equation (Richards 1931) for saturated-unsaturated flow through porous materials. The van Genuchten-Mualem constitutive relations (van Genuchten 1980) describe the capillary pressure and relative liquid permeability in the fracture continuum as a function of liquid saturation. This approach captures the main driving forces (gravity, viscous, and capillary forces) and physical phenomena (phase interference) relevant for modeling unsaturated flow and seepage in a geologic medium. To appropriately include small-scale heterogeneity, the spatial structure of the air-permeability data was analyzed, and the resulting geostatistical parameters were used to generate multiple realization of a spatially correlated permeability field, which were conditioned on the permeabilities measured in borehole intervals. The permeability fields were eventually mapped onto the numerical grid; an example is shown in Figure 4-1. The numerical grids created for the simulation of liquid-release tests represent an appropriate section of the formation around the injection interval, including the underground opening. Evaporation from the drift surface is accounted for by specifying a time-dependent water-potential boundary condition based on Kelvin’s equation, where the thickness of the diffusive boundary layer was determined from evaporation experiments at the seepage test location. October 2003 4-3 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 Source: BSC 2003e, Figures 15b and 14. NOTE: In Figure 4-1a, the mesh is split into two parts to expose the boreholes (indicated by a thick black lines) and the injection interval (thick white line). Figure 4-1. Examples of the Numerical Grid and One Realization of the Underlying Heterogeneous Permeability Field for the Simulation of Liquid-Release Tests (a) in a Niche, and (b) in the October 2003 Enhanced Characterization of the Repository Block Although the permeability structure comprises a network of discrete fractures, the continuum approach is appropriate for simulating unsaturated flow and seepage because it is capable of predicting observed seepage behaviors and seepage rates. In a network of randomly oriented fractures, flow diversion around drift openings occurs primarily within fracture planes. Diversion of water through multiple fractures arises only if a fracture is too short and the flow path within a fracture plane is interrupted. In this case, water is diverted into the next connected fracture, if available. This fracture is again unlikely to be perfectly parallel to the drift axis, allowing the in-plane flow-diversion process to continue. The situation is schematically illustrated in Figure 4-2, which shows two fractures intersected by a drift. In Figure 4-2a, the two fractures are aligned with the drift axis. As an artifact of this specific and unlikely fracture orientation, in-plane flow diversion is prevented, and the resulting impact of discreteness on seepage is accentuated. In Figure 4-2b, the fractures are approximately perpendicular to the drift axis. Flow diversion occurs within the fracture plane, a process that is appropriately captured by 4-4 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 a heterogeneous fracture continuum model even for a single fracture (which can be considered most discrete case). In-plane flow occurring in multiple fractures can be readily combined and described by an effective fracture continuum. Given the significance of in-plane flow diversion around the drift in combination with relatively high fracture density, a three-dimensional, heterogeneous fracture continuum model is an appropriate conceptualization and is, thus, used as the basis for the numerical models developed to analyze seepage data from liquid-release tests and to predict seepage into waste emplacement drifts. The appropriateness of using a continuum model for seepage prediction and its comparison to an approach based on a discrete fracture network model are further discussed in Appendix D. NOTE: (a) A two-dimensional fracture network model assumes that all fractures are parallel to the drift axis, perpendicular to the drift axis. preventing flow diversion within the fracture plane; (b) a two-dimensional (and three-dimensional) fracture continuum model considers flow diversion occurring within multiple fracture planes that are approximately October 2003 Figure 4-2. Schematic Showing Two Fractures Intersecting a Drift In summary, the process model described above captures the forces, processes, and features relevant for simulating unsaturated flow and seepage into underground openings at Yucca Mountain. The processes are captured either explicitly by solving the physically based governing equations or implicitly through an effective parameter that is determined from data that include the respective seepage process. The degree of complexity of the model is appropriate for its purpose, (i.e., for the prediction of average seepage on the scale of an approximately 5-m-long drift segment). Small-scale features and processes, including discrete fracture-flow behavior, surface roughness, and film flow, are captured in effective model-related parameters determined from site-specific data that reflect the seepage process on the appropriate scale (see Section 4.3). Calibration and validation against seepage-rate data and the consistent conceptualization in the downstream models make this a valid and reasonable approach to characterizing and predicting seepage at Yucca Mountain. 4-5 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 4.3 MODEL CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION Models of niches and the ECRB Cross-Drift (summarily referred to as the seepage calibration model) are calibrated against late-time seepage-rate data from numerous liquid-release tests conducted in several boreholes at locations in both the middle nonlithophysal zone and the lower lithophysal zone (see Figure 3-1). Early-time seepage data are discarded because they are affected by storage effects and the properties of a few fractures connecting the injection interval with the opening. These fractures are not necessarily representative of the fracture network that is activated in flow diversion around the entire opening under steady-state conditions. Late-time data are more representative of near-steady conditions and are less influenced by storage effects. Moreover, the relatively large amount of released water at late time has likely encountered a larger portion of the capillary barrier. Consequently, the late-time seepage data better reflect average conditions on the scale of interest. Eighty-one liquid-release tests conducted in Niches 2, 3, 4, and 5 as well as the systematic testing area in the ECRB Cross-Drift were simulated with the seepage calibration model, a numerical process model that captures transient unsaturated flow through a heterogeneous fracture continuum and seepage into the underground openings. In addition, evaporation effects were accounted for when deemed significant (i.e., when simulating seepage into the open, ventilated ECRB Cross-Drift). The simulated saturation distribution at the end of liquid-release tests conducted in Niche 5 and the ECRB Cross-Drift are depicted in Figure 4-3. Source: BSC 2003e, Figures 26a and 21d. Figure 4-3. Saturation Distributions at the End of a Liquid-Release Test Conducted in (a) Niche 5 and (b) the Enhanced Characterization of the Repository Block as Simulated with the Calibrated Seepage Process Model No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts October 2003 4-6 Revision 2 Measured seepage-rate data from 22 liquid-release tests performed in boreholes above Niches 3, 4, and 5 and along the ECRB Cross-Drift were used to calibrate the seepage calibration model and to estimate the seepage-relevant, model-related van Genuchten capillary-strength parameter 1/á. The remainder of the seepage-rate data was used to validate the seepage calibration model, (i.e., to determine whether it is appropriate and adequate for its intended use). The choice of the tests used for calibration and validation is discussed in Seepage Calibration Model and Seepage Testing Data (BSC 2003e, Section 6.6.3.2) Examples of calibrated liquid-release tests conducted along the ECRB Cross-Drift and in Niche 5 are shown in Figure 4-4. For the tests conducted along the ECRB (Figure 4-4a, b, and c), a significant component of the fluctuations in both the simulated and observed seepage rates are a result of variations in the relative humidity and, thus, evaporation potential in the ventilated drift; the effect is appropriately captured by the model. No such fluctuations are observed in the Niche 5 test, where relative humidity was approximately constant at 85 percent. Figure 4-5 shows examples of validation runs, in which seepage rates for liquid-release tests conducted in Niche 3 were predicted with the calibrated model using a single parameter set and compared to measured data that had not been used for model calibration. Linear error propagation analysis yielded the uncertainty of the model prediction as a result of uncertainty in the input parameters. The data fall within the range of predicted seepage rates. Based on the acceptance criteria outlined in Seepage Calibration Model and Seepage Testing Data (BSC 2003e, Section 7.2), seven of the eight test predictions are considered acceptable. In Test UM 4.88–5.18, the observed late-time seepage rates are slightly larger than the relatively narrow uncertainty band. The prediction would be considered acceptable if the chosen uncertainty in the input parameters were marginally increased (e.g., to account for uncertainty as a result of the stochastic nature of the underlying heterogeneous permeability field). This uncertainty will be included in TSPA calculations. October 2003 4-7 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 Source: BSC 2003e, Figures 19, 22, 23, and 25. NOTE: The gray line is the measured release rate, which is approximated in the model by the black line. Blue symbols represent measured seepage-rate data; the red line is calculated with the calibrated models. The green line is the relative humidity used to prescribe the evaporation boundary condition. Relative humidity in Niche 5 was constant at approximately 85 percent. Figure 4-4. Calibration of Seepage-Rate Data from Liquid-Release Tests in Zone 2 of Boreholes (a) SYBT-ECRB-LA#1, Zone 2, (b) SYBT-ECRB-LA#2, Zone 2, (c) SYBT-ECRB-LA#2, Zone 3, and (d) Borehole #4 in Niche 5 October 2003 4-8 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Source: BSC 2003e, Figure 43. NOTE: Linear uncertainty propagation analysis was used to calculate the uncertainty band of the model predictions. Figure 4-5. Validation of Seepage Model and Tptpmn Seepage-Relevant Parameters Using Data from Niche 3 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 October 2003 4-9 Revision 2 The capillary-strength parameter for each tested borehole interval was determined by calibrating the model against multiple tests using different liquid-release rates. Some of these release rates induced a local percolation flux that was above the seepage threshold (i.e., water dripped into the opening and yielded seepage-rate data valuable for calibration). However, tests were also performed below the seepage threshold. Moreover, the model was validated against tests conducted above and below the seepage threshold. The system was probed and the model was validated for the critical range of percolation rates about the seepage threshold. Seepage predictions for natural percolation fluxes that are even less than the low fluxes (below the seepage threshold) induced during the low-rate tests will yield the correct result, namely, zero seepage. A high-infiltration climate or strong flow focusing can cause the natural local percolation flux to exceed the seepage threshold. In summary, the capillary strength parameters determined from relatively high-rate liquid-release tests provide a solid basis for seepage predictions under low and high natural percolation fluxes. The validation approach demonstrates that the seepage process model is capable of predicting the behavior above and below the seepage threshold. The analysis of seepage-rate data for the determination of seepage-relevant parameters can be summarized as follows: 1. The testing and modeling approach is considered adequate for providing the conceptual basis and parameters for predictive seepage models. The approach consists of analyzing seepage by means of a numerical process model that is calibrated against seepage-rate data from liquid-release tests conducted within the repository host units. 2. The estimation of seepage-relevant, model-related, effective parameters on the scale of interest is an appropriate methodology provided that the structure of the prediction model (see Sections 4.4 and 4.5) is consistent with the model used for calibration (the seepage calibration model). 3. Seepage properties are spatially variable. The variability has been examined by performing liquid-release tests at various sites along the ESF and the ECRB. Spatial variability in the estimated van Genuchten capillary-strength parameter á / 1 is relatively large compared to the estimation uncertainty at a given location. The main contribution to the estimation uncertainty is small-scale heterogeneity that can only be described stochastically. Random fluctuations in seepage-rate data lead to insignificant uncertainty in the parameter estimates. 4.4 PREDICTION OF AMBIENT SEEPAGE While the seepage calibration model described in Section 4.3 simulates liquid-release tests and seepage into niches and the ECRB for calibration and validation purposes, the seepage model for performance assessment was developed to predict total seepage into a section of a waste emplacement drift under ambient percolation conditions (BSC 2003i). Isothermal flow simulations were performed over wide ranges of selected key parameters. The key parameters affecting ambient seepage are the effective capillary-strength parameter, the reference permeability, and the local percolation flux imposed at the upper model boundary. Conceptually October 2003 4-10 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 consistent with the seepage calibration model, the predictive seepage model for performance assessment is a three-dimensional drift-scale model, employing a stochastic continuum representation of the small-scale heterogeneity of fractured rock in the drift vicinity. Applying a percolation flux at the top of the model, the steady-state seepage flux is obtained. As an example, Figure 4-6 shows the resulting saturation distribution for one realization. The calculation is repeated for different parameter combinations and different realizations of the underlying stochastic permeability field. Results are provided in the form of a lookup table, that gives seepage rates and related seepage estimation uncertainty as a function of these key parameters. During a probabilistic TSPA calculation, values of input parameters will be sampled from their respective probability distributions (see Section 4.6), and the corresponding seepage rate will be extracted from the lookup table. Sensitivity analyses were performed to examine the impact of the stochastic parameters (standard deviation and correlation) describing the small-scale heterogeneity of the permeability field. Source: BSC 2001b, Figure 6.4-8. NOTE: The development of a shadow zone is shown. Figure 4-6. Simulated Liquid Saturation Distribution in Heterogeneous Fracture Continuum in the October 2003 Vicinity of a Waste Emplacement Drift 4-11 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 The seepage model assumes that the relative humidity within the drift is constant and 100 percent. This assumption is appropriate for times significantly following the cessation of ventilation that steady state humidities in the drift are appropriate. This assumption effectively forces all incoming moisture into the drifts to be liquid water (i.e., seepage). Observations made in the ECRB (presented in Section 3.2) described the possible effects associated with transient moisture flux from the drift wall into the drift and the subsequent redistribution of that moisture due to small temperature differences along the drift. The systematic simulations performed by the seepage model performance assessment cover a wide range of capillary-strength values 1/á (from 100 Pa to 1,000 Pa), mean permeability values log10(k[m2]) (from -14 to -10), and local percolation flux (from 1 to 1,000 mm/yr). For each parameter combination, 20 realizations of the heterogeneous permeability fields were simulated. The range of results from the 20 realizations provides information about the estimation uncertainty in the predicted seepage rates because of uncertainty in the stochastic small-scale heterogeneity. Example results from the seepage model performance assessment are illustrated in Figure 4-7. The figure gives contours of the simulated seepage percentage into a drift with a diameter of 5.5 m as a function of the capillary-strength parameter 1/á and the mean fracture permeability for selected percolation fluxes between 1 mm/yr and 1,000 mm/yr. (These percolation fluxes are local; they include potential flow focusing effects.) The seepage percentage (the ratio between the seepage rate and percolation flux over the drift area) indicates the flow diversion capability of the capillary barrier at the drift surface. As expected, the seepage percentage is large for small capillary strength, small permeability, and large percolation flux. In these cases, seepage may approach 100 percent (i.e., there is no flow diversion at the drift wall), and the entire percolation flux seeps into the drift. In contrast, the seepage percentage is small for all cases with strong capillarity, large permeability, and small percolation flux. In many of these cases, there is no seepage at all; the entire percolation flux is diverted around the drift by capillary forces because the percolation flux is below the seepage threshold for the given parameters. October 2003 4-12 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 Source: BSC 2003i, Figure 6-8. Figure 4-7. Mean Seepage Percentage as a Function of Capillary-Strength Parameter and Mean Permeability for a Percolation Flux of 1,10, 50, 200, 400, 600, 800, and 1,000 mm/yr 4.5 PREDICTION OF SEEPAGE UNDER THERMAL CONDITIONS A thermal-hydrologic seepage model (BSC 2003b) was developed to evaluate the coupled thermal-hydrologic processes; and their impact on seepage; in the vicinity of waste emplacement drifts during the heating phase of the repository. This drift-scale process model is designed to analyze the combined effect of the two barriers that may prevent seepage into drifts at elevated temperatures: (1) the capillary barrier, which is independent of the thermal conditions, and (2) the vaporization barrier (see Section 1.5), which is effective while temperature is elevated above the boiling point. While incorporating the conceptual framework for ambient seepage, the thermal-hydrologic seepage model accounts for important flow and energy transport processes in response to the emplacement of heat-generating waste, including the movement of both gaseous and liquid phases, transport of latent and sensible heat, phase transition between liquid and vapor, and vapor pressure lowering. The fractured rock is treated as a dual-permeability domain, accounting for the fractures and the rock matrix as two separate, overlapping continua. The active fracture model (Liu et al. 1998, p. 2,636) is employed to account for the fact that October 2003 4-13 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 unsaturated flow may be restricted to a limited number of (active) fractures and that flow within a fracture is likely to be channelized. A stochastic continuum model is implemented for fractures near the drift that considers the small-scale variability of permeability to account for flow channeling. The capillary-strength parameter close to the drift wall was derived from the properties provided by the calibration against seepage-rate data (see Section 4.3). Transient simulations in a two-dimensional cross section (extending from the ground surface to the water table; see Figure 4-8) were performed explicitly to calculate percolation to the drift during the heating phase of the repository, and to calculate directly transient seepage rates into the drift under elevated temperature conditions. Relevant parameters varied in the evaluation of thermal seepage are the thermal operating mode, the local percolation flux, and selected rock properties. Results of this model were used in the seepage abstraction to develop an appropriate methodology of adjusting the seepage model performance assessment results to account for thermally perturbed conditions. The thermal-hydrologic seepage model was validated by comparison with in situ heater tests conducted at Yucca Mountain (BSC 2003b, Section 7), with particular focus on the DST. The model validation included quantitative evaluation of continuously measured temperature data with a detailed analysis of subtle temperature signals indicative of thermal-hydrologic coupling, as well as qualitative evaluation of periodic measurements that monitored moisture redistribution processes using geophysical methods, air-injection data, and withdrawal of liquid water in packed-off boreholes. The thermal hydrologic seepage model predictions regarding the effectiveness of the vaporization barrier were also tested by comparison with an alternative conceptual model of water flow in the superheated rock environment (BSC 2003b, Section 6.3). In this alternative model, the thermally perturbed downward flux from the condensation zone toward the superheated rock zone is conceptualized to form episodic preferential-flow events (finger flow). The effectiveness of the vaporization barrier was then tested for the extreme conditions where downward flux in small fingers is fast and large in magnitude compared to average flow. A semi-analytical solution (Birkholzer 2003) was employed to simulate the complex flow processes of episodic finger flow in a superheated fracture. With this solution, the maximum penetration distance into the superheated rock was determined for specific episodic flow events and thermal conditions, and the amount of water arriving at the drift crown was calculated. It was shown that finger flow is not likely to penetrate through the superheated rock during the first several hundred years of heating, when rock temperature is high and boiling conditions exist in a sufficiently large region above the drifts. Only later, when the boiling zone is small and the impact of vaporization is limited, may channelized water arrive at the drift crown. This issue is further discussed in Appendix A. The thermal-hydrologic seepage model was applied to simulate the thermal-hydrologic coupled processes for a period of 4,000 years after waste emplacement. A series of selected simulation cases was conducted for the Tptpmn and Tptpll submodels, comprising different thermal loads, various percolation flux scenarios, different capillary-strength parameters, and different conceptual models for fracture-matrix interaction (see overview of simulation cases in BSC 2003b, Section 6.2.1.6). The simulation results relevant for seepage abstraction are briefly discussed below. October 2003 4-14 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 Source: BSC 2003b, Figure 6.2.1.2-1. NOTE: The emplacement drift is located in the middle nonlithophysal zone Tptpmn, which is bounded by the upper lithophysal (Tptpul) and lower lithophysal (Tptpll) zones. Figure 4-8. Example of Numerical Grid for the Thermal-Hydrologic Seepage Model The predicted thermal-hydrologic conditions are strongly driven by the thermal load placed into the drifts and by the local percolation flux. For the reference thermal mode, the heat generated from the waste canisters results in maximum rock temperatures at the drift wall between 120°C and 140°C, depending on the hydrogeologic unit and the amount of percolation considered. The period of above-boiling rock temperature is about 1,000 years for the base-case flux scenario, and rock temperature at the end of the simulation period is still as high as 65°C. Elevated percolation leads to cooler temperatures and a shorter boiling period with stronger flux activity (liquid-vapor counter flow in the boiling-temperature zone). October 2003 4-15 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 In general, seepage under thermal conditions (thermal seepage) is possible only when (a) water arrives at the drift wall (depending on the vaporization impact), and (b) the saturation at the drift wall exceeds a given threshold value, defined by the capillary barrier effect at the rock-drift interface. The modeling results consistently demonstrate that the thermal perturbation of the flow field, causing increased downward flux from the condensation zone toward the drifts, is strongest during the first few hundred years after closure, corresponding to the time period when rock temperature is highest and the vaporization barrier is most effective. Even for high percolation fluxes into the model domain and strong flow channeling as a result of fracture heterogeneity, water cannot penetrate far into the superheated rock during the time that rock temperature is above boiling. Thus, the potential for seepage is small. The majority of the mobilized water is diverted around the dryout zone and drains away from the drift, as shown in Figure 4-9a. At the time when temperature has returned to below-boiling conditions (see Figure 4-9b), fractures start to be rewetted at the drift wall. However, while the vaporization barrier has become less effective, the capillary barrier at the drift wall will continue to reduce (or prevent) water seepage into the drift. Transient seepage rates were explicitly calculated by the thermal-hydrologic seepage model to quantify the potential for seepage during the thermally perturbed time period. These transient seepage rates were compared with results from ambient (steady-state) simulations to evaluate the vaporization barrier. Example results illustrating the evolution of thermal seepage for one realization and a flow-focusing factor of 10 are given in Figure 4-10. No water arrives at the drift during the boiling period (i.e., even without heating of the repository). The capillary barrier at the drift wall is predicted to be fully effective during the first 600 years after waste emplacement. As rock temperature decreases during cool down and the first stepwise change in infiltration occurs at 600 years, the saturation values build up strongly. The change to monsoonal climate at 600 years (from 60 to 160 mm/yr) brings the saturation up to the threshold value for seepage at about 1,400 years after emplacement while still in the monsoon climate period. With the stepwise increase of infiltration at 2,000 years, the seepage percentage increases strongly, and water starts to seep at a second location along the drift wall in the model. At the end of the simulation period, the thermal seepage percentage is at about 17 percent, only slightly smaller than the long-term ambient value of 19.5 percent for a 250 mm/yr percolation flux. This provides additional confidence because as two simultaneously acting barriers prevent seepage. October 2003 4-16 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Source: BSC 2003b, Figures 6.2.2.2-3a and 6.2.2.2-4a. NOTE: SL = liquid saturation. Figure 4-9. Fracture Saturation and Liquid Flux for Tptpmn Submodel with Heterogeneous Permeability Field at (a) 100 Years and (b) 1,000 Years 4-17 No. 3: Water Seeping into Drifts Revision 2 October 2003 Revision 2 Source: BSC 2003b, Figure 6.2.2.2-7b. Figure 4-10. Seepage Percentage for Tptpmn Submodel at Reference Thermal Mode and Tenfold October 2003 4-18 Percolation Flux The different simulation cases studied with the thermal-hydrologic seepage model show considerable variability with respect to the thermal-hydrologic conditions in the rock. Despite this variability, there were several important observations with respect to thermal seepage that are common to all cases (BSC 2003b, Sections 6.2.4 and 8.1): 1. Thermal seepage was never observed in simulation runs where the respective ambient seepage was zero. 2. Thermal seepage never occurred during the period of above-boiling temperatures in the rock close to the emplacement drifts. 3. In simulation cases where ambient seepage was obtained, thermal seepage was initiated at several hundred to a few thousand years after rock temperature has returned below boiling. 4. Thermal-seepage rates were always smaller than the respective ambient reference values. Thus, the ambient seepage values provide an as