Technical Basis Document No. 7: In-Package Environment and Waste Form Degradation and Solubility Revision 1 July 2004 1. INTRODUCTION This technical basis document summarizes the technical basis and conceptual understanding of the chemical environment within breached waste packages after water has come into contact with the waste form, the subsequent degradation of the waste forms, and the mobilization of radionuclides from degraded waste forms. This document is one in a series of technical basis documents that are being prepared for the different components relevant to predicting the likely postclosure performance of the Yucca Mountain repository system. The relationship of in-package chemistry, waste form degradation, and radionuclide solubility to the other repository system components is illustrated in Figure 1-1. To predict the chemical environment within a breached waste package, the degradation of the waste form, and the mobilization of radionuclides, the models discussed in this technical basis document rely on input from other models shown in Figure 1-1. Specifically, models for water seepage into the drifts and for waste package and drip shield corrosion are used to predict the evolution of the chemical environment within breached waste packages, the degradation of the waste forms, and the mobilization of radionuclides from degraded waste forms. Output from the models discussed in this document provides the source term for modeling radionuclide transport 1-1 July 2004 No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 as dissolved species and as associated with colloids through the different components of the engineered barrier system (EBS) (waste package, corrosion products, and invert) and subsequent migration through the unsaturated zone, the saturated zone, and discharge to the biosphere. The technical understanding of the waste package environment, waste form degradation, and radionuclide mobilization is based on 13 reports written to support the license application (LA): • Radionuclide Screening (BSC 2002a) • Clad Degradation — FEPs Screening Arguments (BSC 2004a) • Pitting Model for Zirconium-Alloyed Cladding at YMP (BSC 2003a) • Clad Degradation — Summary and Abstraction for LA (BSC 2003b) • Seismic Consequence Abstraction (BSC 2003c) • Initial Radionuclide Inventories (BSC 2003d) • CSNF Waste Form Degradation: Summary Abstraction (BSC 2003e) • In-Package Chemistry Abstraction (BSC 2004b) • DSNF and Other Waste Form Degradation Abstraction (BSC 2003f) • Defense HLW Glass Degradation Model (BSC 2003g) • Dissolved Concentration Limits of Radioactive Elements (BSC 2004c) • Waste Form and In-Drift Colloids-Associated Radionuclide Concentrations: Abstraction and Summary (BSC 2003h). • Igneous Intrusion Impacts on Waste Package and Waste Form (BSC 2004d). This technical basis document uses the information provided in these 13 reports to present a coherent perspective of the impact that water ingress into waste packages has on the chemical environment within the waste packages, the degradation of the waste forms, and the mobilization of radionuclides. In addition, this technical basis document provides the context for responses to Key Technical Issue (KTI) agreements (and associated general (GEN) items) and Additional Information Needed (AIN) requests made between the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) related to in-package chemistry and commercial spent nuclear fuel (SNF) cladding. Technical responses to the following KTI agreements and AIN requests are provided as appendices to this document: • Appendix A—In-Package Chemistry Environment (Response to CLST 3.02 AIN-1, ENFE 3.03, TSPAI 3.14, and GEN 1.01 (Comments 116 and 126)) • Appendix B—Effects of Radiolysis and Engineered Materials on In-Package Chemistry (Response to CLST 3.03 AIN-1 and CLST 3.04 AIN-1) July 2004 1-2 No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 • Appendix C—Demonstration of the Adequacy of the In-Package Chemistry Model Results (Response to ENFE 3.04 and CLST 3.05) • Appendix D—Localized Corrosion and Stress Corrosion Cracking in Cladding (Response to CLST 3.06 AIN-1, CLST 3.07, CLST 3.08 AIN-1, CLST 3.09 AIN-1, and GEN 1.01 (Comment 124)) • Appendix E—Total System Performance Assessment Implementation of In-Package Chemistry (Response to TSPAI 3.08). 1.1 UNDERSTANDING OF IN-PACKAGE CHEMISTRY, WASTE FORM DEGRADATION, AND RADIONUCLIDE MOBILIZATION As the starting point for all potential radionuclide releases to the biosphere, the source term for radionuclides within the EBS is an important submodel in the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for LA. For radionuclides to be transported through the EBS, the waste form must first degrade and the radionuclides mobilized. The degradation of the waste form and the mobilization of radionuclides within the waste package are herein jointly called the waste form degradation model. The function of the waste form degradation model is to estimate the availability and mobilization of radionuclides that are used as input by the EBS transport model. Although radioactive waste can degrade by oxidation without water, radionuclides cannot be transported in the absence of water, and water must be present for the chemistry in the package to be modeled. Therefore, the models presented in this document assume that water will be present in the waste package. In some cases (e.g., in-package chemistry), the quantity of water assumed to be present in the waste package is dictated by the needs of the submodel and may not be consistent with the quantity of water assumed to be available in other related models. The waste form degradation model consists of eight components, shown in Figure 1-2. Five of those components determine the degradation rate of waste forms: (1) in-package chemistry; (2) degradation of commercial SNF cladding, (3) degradation of commercial SNF, (4) degradation of U.S. Department of Energy SNF, and (5) degradation of high-level radioactive waste (HLW) glass. The other three components determine the mobilization of radionuclides from the waste form into the waste package corrosion products: radionuclide inventory, radionuclide solubility, and colloid formation and stability. Understanding the source term for radionuclides within the EBS begins with the model of the average radionuclide inventory for three generic waste forms: commercial SNF, DOE SNF, and HLW encapsulated in borosilicate glass. A fourth waste form, naval SNF, is represented by commercial SNF. The three waste forms are placed into two waste package configurations: a commercial SNF waste package with various numbers of assemblies of SNF, and a codisposal waste package with typically one canister of DOE SNF and five canisters of HLW glass. Of the more than 100 radionuclides that will be potentially present in the initial inventory, 28 radionuclides (from 14 elements) are identified as being important to the estimate of expected dose to the reasonable maximally exposed individual (RMEI) during the 10,000-year regulatory period. July 2004 1-3 No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 Figure 1-2. Components of the Waste Form Degradation Model The evolution of water chemistry inside a breached waste package is controlled by the waste package corrosion rate, waste package type (commercial SNF versus codisposed), water inflow rate, cladding failure fraction, waste-form corrosion rate, and temperature. Water inflow rate will depend on whether seepage water drips onto the waste package. For nondripping conditions, water will enter a breached waste package as water vapor, whereas under dripping conditions, water will flow through a breached waste package. The pH of water within a waste package will be strongly influenced by the presence of corrosion products, primarily goethite. This phase will provide sufficient surface area for complexation reactions to buffer the pH below 8.1. For commercial SNF, radionuclides can be released only from those fuel rods on which the cladding has failed. The rate of release of radionuclides from the fuel matrix is modeled as a function of four variables: temperature, pH, total carbonate concentration, and oxygen fugacity (or partial pressure). In addition, a small fraction of radionuclides resides in the grain boundaries of the fuel pellets and the gap between the fuel pellet and cladding of commercial SNF. Radionuclides (specifically 90Sr, 137Cs, 99Tc, and 129I) residing in the gap or grain boundary are available for dissolution as soon as water contacts the waste. The presence of a gap fraction and July 2004 1-4 No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 the rapid degradation of the commercial SNF fuel matrix in an oxic environment, as is expected to exist in the repository, implies that the release of most radionuclides from a commercial SNF waste package is not limited by their availability (i.e., not limited by the waste form degradation rate) but by their solubility. The exceptions are 90Sr, 137Cs, 99Tc, and 129I. The solubilities of these four radionuclides are quite high under repository conditions; hence, the degradation rate of the commercial SNF fuel matrix and the initial inventory of these radionuclides in the gap and grain boundary influences their release rate. Eleven DOE SNF groups have been used to categorize the several hundred distinct types of DOE SNF that will eventually be emplaced in the repository. A degradation rate model consisting of waste form degradation and radionuclide availability rapid enough to occur within the first TSPA-LA time step is used for all these waste groups, except naval SNF, which is assumed to behave as commercial SNF. Many well-known processes contribute to HLW glass degradation, although there is some debate as to whether the dissolution process at high dissolved silica (H4SiO4) levels is controlled by surface reactions or by the diffusion of silica through alteration phases that form on the glass as it dissolves, as discussed further in Section 5.3. The glass dissolution process is controlled by the temperature and pH of the solution in contact with the glass. Under acidic and alkaline conditions, glass degradation rates increase with, respectively, decreasing and increasing pH. The degradation rate has an Arrhenius-type dependence on temperature. The solubility of seven important elements (plutonium, americium, neptunium, thorium, uranium, protactinium, and actinium) depends on the water chemistry inside the waste package. The solubility exhibits a typical “U-shaped” dependence on pH with a minimum at approximately neutral to mildly basic pH values, which coincides with long-term in-package conditions. For an eighth element, radium, the solubility is defined solely as a function of pH. The solubilities of the remaining five important elements (i.e., carbon, cesium, strontium, iodine, and technetium) are high under expected repository conditions. Hence, the availability of these radionuclides for transport out of the waste form is determined by the fraction of cladding that fails, the degradation rate of the waste form, and the gap and grain boundary inventory. Two sources of colloids are considered in the colloid model in the waste form: natural colloids in seepage groundwater and colloids generated from degradation of HLW glass, which exhibit a clay-like behavior. In addition, a third type of colloid, iron oxyhydroxide corrosion products, is assumed to form in the waste package as the waste form support structures corrode. Colloids formed from DOE HLW glass and naturally occurring groundwater colloids are both represented by smectite clay colloids, and can transport reversibly sorbed radionuclides. In addition, HLW glass colloids can transport embedded plutonium and americium. The stability of colloid suspensions is a function of ionic strength and pH. Dissolved cesium, americium, plutonium, protactinium, and thorium are partitioned (reversibly) between the water and groundwater colloids. Plutonium and americium embedded in HLW glass colloids are considered to be irreversibly sorbed and, thus, are not partitioned between the water and the HLW glass colloids. Corrosion product colloids are likely to be made up of some mixture of goethite, ferrihydrite, or hematite. Each solid has a high affinity for many radionuclides. Colloid suspensions are stable only when the ionic strength is less than 0.05 mol/L, and, at certain pH values, can be unstable at values of ionic strength lower than 0.05 mol/L. Colloid suspensions are believed to be stable July 2004 1-5 No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 only for limited periods of time and under limited combinations of physical and chemical conditions during the 10,000-year regulatory compliance period. Moreover, in the nominal case scenario, when radionuclide transport within the EBS is expected to be diffusion-dominated, colloid-facilitated transport of radionuclides is physically impossible because the colloids will be too big to diffuse. 1.2 APPLICABILITY OF WASTE FORM DEGRADATION MODEL IN THE SCENARIO CLASSES Waste form degradation is highly dependent on the amount of water entering the waste package. This dictates the in-package chemistry, which, in turn, influences waste form degradation rates, radionuclide solubility, and colloid stability. Water reaches the repository by infiltrating the mountain surface, percolating through the matrix and fractures above the repository, and seeping into the emplacement drift. Figure 1-3 shows the advective water flux pathways into and within the emplacement drifts, including the EBS and, hence, the potential sources of water for waste form degradation and radionuclide mobilization. It is conservatively assumed that water will be present to dissolve and transport radionuclides even during periods of repository conditions that would inhibit such processes (i.e., when the waste package and waste form temperatures are higher than the surrounding surfaces and would otherwise drive moisture away). Water will be present in the repository environment, and if radionuclides are to leave the drift in large quantities, water must interact with fuel elements. To establish the limits of the water-borne dose, the broad features of waste form degradation by water must be modeled. If water never contacts the waste form, or if water contacts it in lower quantities than envisioned, TSPA predictions of dose will have been overestimated and, hence, conservative. The waste form degradation model summarized in this document is intended to capture the expected chemical reactions induced when water enters a failed waste package either through advection (flow pathway 4 in Figure 1-3) or by diffusion and to estimate radionuclide release from waste packages into the invert either by advection (flow pathway 6 of Figure 1-3) or diffusion. The amount of water that enters a package is strongly dependent on the period of interest (i.e., whether temperatures in the repository are above the boiling point of water) and whether the engineered barriers have been disrupted. These two important aspects are used to define the three scenario classes considered in the TSPA-LA model (BSC 2002b, Section 4): nominal, seismic, and igneous scenario classes. A fourth scenario class, human intrusion, is a stylized analysis (BSC 2002b, Section 4) because of specific simplified assumptions imposed by the NRC in 10 CFR Part 63. The models presented in this document are used in the nominal and seismic scenario classes. The igneous scenario class has two types of disruption: igneous intrusion of a dike into an emplacement drift and volcanic eruption through a waste emplacement drift. For waste packages that are destroyed by igneous intrusion, all the models discussed in this document are applicable and are used in the TSPA-LA model. For both the volcanic eruption scenario and the human intrusion calculations, only the radionuclide inventory model (Section 2) is used because neither set of calculations involves transport of radionuclides in groundwater. The scenario classes that July 2004 1-6 No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 implement the models presented in this document and their relationship to waste package modeling are summarized in Table 1-1 and are discussed next. Figure 1-3. Potential Liquid Advective Pathways in the Engineered Barrier System July 2004 1-7 No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 Table 1-1. Models Implemented in the Scenario Classes Included in the Total System Performance Assessment for the License Application Colloid Formation and Stability X Scenario Class Nominal scenario and waste packages unaffected by disruptive events in other scenario classes X Waste packages affected by seismic scenario Radionuclide Solubility X X X Waste Form Degradation X X X Chemistry In-Package Cladding Failure X X X X X X Waste packages affected by igneous intrusion Waste packages affected by volcanic eruption Inventory X X X X X Waste packages affected by human intrusion X July 2004 1.2.1 Degradation in the Nominal Scenario Class The nominal scenario represents the collection of features, events, and processes (FEPs) most likely to occur during the 10,000-year regulatory period, such as climate change and heating of the repository (BSC 2002b, Section 4.1). Based on corrosion analysis (BSC 2003i, Section 6.7.1), the drip shield and waste package will remain intact for the 10,000-year regulatory period for all but a small fraction of the waste packages. As a result, water seeping into the emplacement drifts of the repository (flow pathway 1 of Figure 1-3) will be diverted away from all but a small fraction of the packages (flow pathway 3 of Figure 1-3). Hence, advective radionuclide transport through the vast majority of waste packages (flow pathway 4) cannot occur; only diffusive radionuclide transport through the waste package can occur in the 10,000 years after repository closure. Radionuclide transport by diffusion is possible only for dissolved species. In films thinner than the diameter of the colloids, transport is physically hindered. In thicker films, the substantially lower diffusion coefficients for colloids relative to dissolved species will tend to prevent appreciable colloid transport. For the nominal scenario, only a small fraction of the waste packages (e.g., the probability of three or more failed waste packages is 0.026 (BSC 2003i, Table 46)) is expected to have small manufacturing weld defects near the waste package lid, allowing water vapor to diffuse into the package, saturate the contents of the package, and dissolve radionuclides, thereby establishing a pathway for diffusive radionuclide transport (Figure 1-4). Only the small fraction of fuel rods that arrive at the repository with perforated cladding (about 0.1%) can lead to the release of radionuclides during the 10,000-year regulatory period. Additional cladding failures from other mechanisms (e.g., localized corrosion, static loading of rock) during the regulatory period are not anticipated. The cladding that is initially perforated is assumed to split along the entire length of the fuel rod. Subsequent degradation of exposed fuel is assumed to produce a water-saturated rind through which dissolved radionuclides diffuse, thereby leaving the waste matrix and entering into the corrosion products in the waste package. 1-8 No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 10,000 years. Figure 1-4. Degradation of Waste Form under Nominal Scenario Class NOTE: For the nominal scenario, waste form degradation is limited and only diffusive release through manufacturing defects occurs because the drip shield and waste package remain intact for the first July 2004 1.2.2 Degradation in the Seismic Disruptive Scenario For the seismic disruptive scenario class (BSC 2002b, Section 4.3), the drip shields, waste packages, and cladding can be disrupted due to vibratory ground motion, fault displacement, and rockfall, as discussed in Seismic Consequence Abstraction (BSC 2003c, Table 31). The most likely waste package failure mechanism from a seismic event is accelerated stress corrosion cracking in areas that exceed the residual stress threshold for Alloy 22. It is postulated that a dense network of stress corrosion cracks would form, and the effective area of these cracks, which is much less than the overall affected surface area of the waste package, is the area through which flow and transport occur (Figure 1-5). The percentage of cladding that is perforated is a function of the peak ground velocity associated with the seismic event. The models of how the cladding splits once it is perforated and how radionuclides are transported through the rind are the same in the seismic scenario as they are in the nominal scenario. For those waste packages associated with undamaged drip shields or not encountering dripping water, radionuclide releases will be due to diffusion, similar to conditions in the nominal scenario. 1-9 No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 Figure 1-5. Degradation of Waste Form under the Seismic Disruptive Scenario 1.2.3 Degradation in the Igneous Intrusion Scenario In the igneous intrusion scenario, a basalt dike is envisioned to intersect the repository (BSC 2002b, Section 4.2). Damage to waste packages and waste forms is conceptually divided into two distinct zones. In Zone 1 (where the emplacement drifts are intersected by the basaltic dike), the drip shields, waste packages, and commercial SNF cladding are disrupted and breached from the shock wave and heat. As a result, the waste form is distributed throughout the cooled magma but is chemically unchanged from the nominal scenario model. The latter is a reasonable assumption because the melting temperatures of fuel components are typically higher than the expected maximum temperature of the magma. Therefore, the waste degradation rates and dissolved concentration of radionuclides in water in the basalt would have the same dependence on water chemistry as does waste not affected by the intrusion (BSC 2004d, Section 6.5.1.2). In Zone 2, no damage is assumed, and thus, conditions are expected to be the same as in the nominal scenario (BSC 2004d, Section 8.1). Degradation and dissolution of the waste form in breached waste packages in Zone 1 and degradation of the waste in Zone 2 occur once the drift cools (nominally, within roughly 100 years). In Zone 1, the drift is assumed to be completely filled with basalt. This scenario is most reasonably modeled as a uniform percolation of basalt-equilibrated fluid contacting bare fuel components (Figure 1-6) (BSC 2004d, Section 6.3). 1-10 July 2004 No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 Figure 1-6. Degradation under the Igneous Intrusion Scenario 1.3 NOTE REGARDING THE STATUS OF SUPPORTING TECHNICAL INFORMATION This document was prepared using the most current information available at the time of its development. This technical basis document and appendices providing KTI agreement and AIN request responses prepared using preliminary or draft information reflect the status of Yucca Mountain Project scientific and design bases at the time of submittal. In some cases, this involved the use of draft analysis model reports and other draft references whose contents may change with time. Information that evolves through subsequent revisions of the analysis model reports and other references will be reflected in the LA as the approved analyses of record at the time of LA submittal. Consequently, the project will not routinely update either this technical basis document or its KTI agreement appendices to reflect changes in the supporting references prior to submittal of the LA. July 2004 1-11 No. 7: In-Package Environment INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK 1-12 No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 July 2004 Revision 1 2. RADIONUCLIDE INVENTORY This section summarizes the various waste forms and waste package configurations planned for the repository, as well as the screening process used to select the radionuclides included in the source term and the quantities of those radionuclides. The sources of data are presented, as are the uncertainties, limitations, and confidence in the source term model. The information in this section is drawn primarily from Radionuclide Screening (BSC 2002a) and Initial Radionuclide Inventories (BSC 2003d). The information presented in this section serves as input to the in-package chemistry model (Section 3), the commercial SNF cladding degradation model (Section 4), and the waste form degradation models (Section 5), as shown in Figure 1-2. 2.1.1 Waste Packages Four types of waste are to be placed in the repository: commercial SNF, naval SNF, DOE SNF (not including naval SNF), and high-level radioactive waste (HLW) glass. Three packaging schemes will be used for these waste types. One waste package type will contain only commercial SNF. The second will contain only naval SNF but will be modeled as a commercial SNF waste package. The third waste package type, designated as a codisposal waste package, will contain DOE SNF and HLW in the same waste package. Figure 2-1 illustrates how waste in these categories will be combined and placed into waste packages. Commercial SNF is classified into two broad categories based on the design of the reactor that produced the fuel: pressurized water reactor (PWR) or boiling water reactor (BWR). Commercial nuclear power plants use a variety of fuels and fuel configurations in their reactor cores to generate power. The predominant nuclear fuel is enriched uranium dioxide. Fuel pellets are packed into long cylindrical fuel rods that vary in size depending on reactor design, and these fuel rods, which are clad in Zircaloy or stainless steel, are bundled into assemblies. The number of fuel rods per assembly and the number of assemblies in a reactor core vary, depending on the core and reactor design (i.e., PWRs or BWRs). DOE SNF consists of more than 250 distinct types of SNF, and, much like commercial SNF, radionuclide inventories vary widely depending on the history of the fuel. The large quantity of DOE SNF is indicative of the large number and variety of different research reactors within the DOE complex. The DOE fuel assemblies have been categorized by the size, shape, composition, and condition of the assemblies, and the size and corrosion resistance of the canister into which they may be loaded (DOE 2003a). The DOE SNF waste forms will be packaged in stainless steel canisters that will be loaded into the waste packages. 2.1 TYPICAL WASTE PACKAGES, RELEVANT PROCESSES, AND MODELING ASSUMPTIONS July 2004 2-1 No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 Source: BSC 2003d, Figure 1. Figure 2-1. An Overview of Various Waste Package Types Containing Different Wastes The HLW in storage at DOE sites is produced by treatment of waste from weapons production and by the reprocessing of SNF (mostly DOE SNF). The technology for immobilization of HLW is vitrification in a borosilicate glass. HLW glass will come from four DOE sites and will be delivered to the repository in either short (about 10 ft long) or long (about 15 ft long) pour-canisters. The Hanford Site will produce long canisters while the Savannah River Site and Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory will produce short canisters. Additionally, a small amount of HLW glass has been produced in short canisters at the West Valley Demonstration Project in New York State. Because the fuels reprocessed at each of these sites differ, the radionuclide inventory of the HLW and resultant glass product will vary among the sites. Details regarding the design and long-term performance of naval SNF are provided in a separate report that has limited distribution for security purposes. Naval SNF is conservatively treated as commercial SNF in the TSPA-LA. July 2004 2-2 No. 7: In-Package Environment Based on design criteria such as structural integrity, thermal performance, criticality safety, and shielding properties, 10 waste packages were designed to accommodate the numerous waste types (DOE 2002a, Section 3.1). Five waste package designs are used to dispose of the two types of commercial SNF (BWR and PWR), three waste package designs are used to dispose of high-level radioactive waste glass from the four different sources (Hanford, West Valley, Savannah River, and Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory) as well as DOE SNF, and two waste package designs are used to dispose of naval SNF. Table 2-1 lists the contents of each of the 10 different waste packages and Figure 2-2 illustrates these waste package designs. Table 2-1. Waste Package Designs Waste Package Design 21-PWR Absorber Plate 21-PWR Control Rod 12-PWR Long 44-BWR 24-BWR 5-DHLW/DOE SNF Short 5-DHLW/DOE SNF Long Naval SNF Short Naval SNF Long Source: DOE 2002a, Tables 3-2 and 3-3. Capacity: 21 commercial pressurized water reactor assemblies 38%/55% and an absorber plate for preventing criticality Capacity: 21 commercial pressurized water reactor assemblies 1%/1% with higher reactivity, requiring additional criticality control that is provided by the placement of control rods in all assemblies Capacity: 12 commercial pressurized water reactor assemblies 2%/2% and an absorber plate for preventing criticality; longer than the fuel assemblies placed in the 21-PWR packages. Because of its smaller capacity, it may also be used for fuel with higher reactivity or thermal output. Capacity: 44 commercial boiling water reactor assemblies and 25%/32% an absorber plate for preventing criticality. Capacity: 24 commercial boiling water reactor assemblies with higher reactivity, requiring a thicker absorber plate to prevent criticality than that used in the 44-BWR design Capacity: 5 short high-level radioactive waste canisters and 1 short DOE SNF canister. Capacity: 5 long high-level radioactive waste canisters and 1 long DOE SNF canister 2-MCO/2-DHLW Long Capacity: 2 DOE multicanister overpacks and 2 long high-level 1%/<1% radioactive waste canisters. Capacity: 1 short naval SNF canister Capacity: 1 long naval SNF canister Description Approximate Percentage of Waste Packages/Approximate Percentage of MTHM 1%/<1% 14%/3% 15%/4% 2%/<1% 1%/<1% For purposes of modeling in the TSPA-LA, two representative waste package types are considered: (1) a representative commercial SNF waste package and (2) a representative codisposal waste package designed to hold both DOE SNF and HLW glass. As shown in Table 2-1, the number of commercial SNF configurations dominates the number of codisposal waste package configurations. Both waste package designs consist of a waste package with an outer corrosion resistant layer of Alloy 22 and an inner layer of stainless steel for structural strength (BSC 2003i, Section 1). No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 July 2004 2-3 Source: DOE 2002a, Figure 3-5. Figure 2-2. Waste Package Configurations for Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel, U.S. Department of Energy Spent Nuclear Fuel, N Reactor Fuel, and High-Level Radioactive Waste Glass No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 July 2004 2-4 Revision 1 2.1.2 Radionuclide Screening Determining the initial radionuclide inventory is the foundation for estimating the radionuclide source term for all transport processes in the TSPA-LA model. This determination involves two steps. First, a screening process is used to determine those radionuclides with the highest contribution to expected dose.1 Those radionuclides shown not to contribute significantly to expected dose can be eliminated from further consideration; in practice, this involved separating the radionuclides that make up roughly 95% of the dose (see below) from the remainder. Second, the initial inventory of radionuclides is estimated for each waste form type and each waste package type. Radionuclides contained in the waste packages include fission products from reactor operations, actinides from neutron capture in uranium and plutonium, and activation products from neutron irradiation of structural materials and trace elements. Altogether, these fission products, actinides, and activation products include more than 100 radionuclides that may be collectively present in the waste packages at the time of repository closure. Many of the radionuclides are present in small quantities or have intrinsic physical and chemical properties that limit the quantities that can reach the RMEI (e.g., short half-life, low solubility, or strongly sorbing characteristics). Such nuclides will not be significant contributors to expected dose and will not pose a radiological risk to a RMEI at the point of compliance. The remaining nuclides represent only a small set of the total and need to be considered in the evaluation of repository postclosure performance. Radionuclides with half-lives less than 10 years that are not decay products of other radionuclides in the waste inventory will not contribute significantly to the dose in the groundwater scenarios (BSC 2002a, Assumption 5.9). As an additional constraint, radionuclides that are most important to expected dose were determined using the screening process of the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurement. This screening was based on dose calculations, which in turn consider consumption of locally produced vegetables, fish, meat, and milk; water consumption; inadvertent ingestion of soil; gardening and shoreline activities; inhalation; and exposure to contaminated ground. Two screening factors were calculated for each radionuclide, one for scenario classes involving groundwater transport (nominal, seismic, and igneous intrusion), and one for the volcanic eruption scenario, which does not involve groundwater transport. Screening factors for groundwater transport scenario classes accounted for radionuclide sorption and solubility characteristics. The screening factors are described in Screening Models for Releases of Radionuclides to Atmosphere, Surface Water, and Ground (NCRP 1996) and were adjusted to reflect the local biosphere, as described in Attachments I and II of Radionuclide Screening (BSC 2002a). Radionuclides were screened by calculating a radionuclide-screening product for each radionuclide. The radionuclide-screening product, which is meant to be roughly proportional to dose, is obtained by multiplying the screening factor for each radionuclide by the activity of that radionuclide in the inventory. These screening products were ranked from largest to smallest, 1 Some radionuclides that are not directly important to expected dose are still included because (1) regulatory requirements mandate their inclusion (40 CFR 197.30, 10 CFR 63.331), or (2) they are parents to radionuclides that are important to dose. July 2004 2-5 No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 and were then summed, starting with the largest and adding the next largest until all of the screening products of each contributing radionuclide were included in the sum. Radionuclides were then screened based on their contribution to the summed radionuclide-screening product. The screening was at the 95% level, meaning that ranked radionuclides that contributed up to 95% of the summed radionuclide-screening product were considered potentially important and were retained for analysis (BSC 2002a, Section 5.5). The relative importance of individual radionuclides to expected dose was evaluated for several waste types, time frames, and release scenarios. Those scenarios that require groundwater transport (e.g., nominal, seismic, and igneous intrusion) were evaluated together as “groundwater scenarios.” The eruptive igneous scenario, which does not involve groundwater transport, was analyzed separately. Because radionuclide transport mechanisms differ between the scenarios that involve groundwater transport and the eruptive igneous scenario, the set of radionuclides identified as being important also differs between the groundwater-transport and nogroundwater- transport scenarios. The effects of inventory abundance, radionuclide longevity, element solubility, and element transport affinity were considered. To evaluate the effects of inventory abundance, eight waste types were examined (i.e., BWR, PWR, HLW, and DOE SNF for both average and bounding waste forms of each type). For the 10,000-year regulatory period, the screening times were at 100, 200, 300, 500, 1,000, 2,000, 5,000, and 10,000 years after emplacement. These sets of screening times capture the main features of the changing dominant radionuclides and their relative activities (BSC 2002a, Section 6.2.3). To evaluate the effects of element solubility and transport affinity, the elements were evaluated in three solubility groups (highly soluble, moderately soluble, and slightly soluble to nonsoluble) and in three transport affinity groups (highly sorbing, moderately sorbing, and slightly sorbing to nonsorbing). The isotopes in each group were compared to one another for relative importance. The results of the screening process at the 95% level are shown in Table 2-2. The table also includes eight radionuclides (241Pu, 245Cm, 228Ra, 235U, 230Th, 232Th, 242Pu, and 236U) that were not important to expected dose but that must be included in the inventory because of regulatory requirements or because they are parents to radionuclides that are important to expected dose (BSC 2003d, Section 6.1). The rationale for inclusion of these eight radionuclides is as follows: • The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and NRC regulations require consideration of the combined activity of 226Ra and 228Ra in groundwater (40 CFR 197.30, 10 CFR 63.331). Therefore, 228Ra must be added to the list of radionuclides. Because 228Ra is produced by the decay of 236U and 232Th, both 236U and 232Th must be included in the inventory. 230Th must be included because it decays into 226Ra. • 241Pu and 245Cm must be included because they decay to 241Am, which is one of the screened-in radionuclides. • 235U must be included because it decays (via short-lived 231Th) to 231Pa, which is one of the screened-in radionuclides. • 242Pu must be included because it decays into 238U, which is one of the screened-in radionuclides. July 2004 2-6 No. 7: In-Package Environment As shown in column 2 of Table 2-2, 28 isotopes of 14 elements must be included in the TSPA-LA model during the 10,000-year regulatory period for scenario classes involving groundwater transport. A subset of these 28 isotopes and 14 elements (i.e., 14 isotopes of eight elements, as shown in column 3 of Table 2-2) must be included in 10,000-year TSPA-LA model for volcanic eruption. Therefore, 28 isotopes of 14 elements are included in the initial inventory for TSPA-LA calculations. Table 2-2. Radionuclides Included in Inventory for the 10,000-Year Regulatory Period Radionuclide 227Ac 241Am 243Am 14C 245Cm 135Cs 137Cs 129I 237Np 231Pa 238Pu 239Pu 240Pu 241Pua 242Pub 226Ra 228Rac 90Sr 99 229 230 232 Tc Th Thd The 232U 233U 234U 235Uf 236Ue 238U Isotopes Groundwater Scenario Classes X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 28 Volcanic Eruption (No Groundwater Transport) X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 14 8 Elements Source: BSC 2002a, Table 10; BSC 2003d, Table 16 and Section 6.1. NOTE: a Included because precursor to 241Am. b Included because precursor to 238U. c Included for groundwater protection requirements. d Included because precursor to 226Ra. e Included because precursor to 228Ra. f Included because precursor to 231Pa. No. 7: In-Package Environment 14 Revision 1 July 2004 2-7 Revision 1 2.2 MODEL OF RADIONUCLIDE INVENTORY The nominal repository is designed to accommodate a total waste inventory of 70,000 MTHM. As designed, approximately 63,000 MTHM of the total inventory is commercial SNF and approximately 7,000 MTHM is DOE SNF and HLW. The radionuclide inventory for a representative commercial SNF and a representative codisposal waste package was derived by averaging the radionuclide inventories in each of the commercial SNF and codisposal waste package configurations over the number of waste packages per configuration. Approximately 221,000 commercial SNF assemblies will be disposed of in the five proposed commercial SNF waste package designs (see first five entries of Table 2-1). These configurations are designed to accommodate each assembly based on its criticality safety needs. Each assembly, depending on the reactor configuration, initial fuel enrichment, burnup, and the age of the waste (time in storage), will have a unique isotopic composition. The total number of commercial SNF waste packages is 7,472 (BSC 2003d, Table 17). Naval SNF is a robust fuel, more robust than commercial SNF and much more robust than DOE SNF. Releases from naval SNF waste packages are expected to be lower than those for commercial SNF waste packages (BSC 2001, Section 6.5). As such, naval fuel is not treated as DOE SNF in the codisposal waste package. For the TSPA-LA analysis, the 300 naval SNF waste packages have been treated as if they were commercial SNF waste packages with respect to their waste form degradation mechanisms and effects, as well as their initial radionuclide inventory (BSC 2003d, Section 6.2 and Attachment II). Naval SNF will be disposed of in two different waste package configurations, as shown in Figure 2-2. Approximately 16,000 HLW glass logs and 3,600 DOE SNF canisters will be disposed of in the codisposal waste package configurations. The total number of codisposal waste packages is 3,412 (BSC 2003d, Table 17). The result of the radionuclide screening analysis and the initial radionuclide inventory analysis is the initial radionuclide inventory (in terms of mass) of those radionuclides determined to be important to expected dose for a representative commercial SNF waste package and a representative codisposal waste package. The nominal initial radionuclide inventory for each waste form is given in Table 2-3; uncertainty in the radionuclide inventory is discussed in Section 2.4. For certain radionuclides, the activity decreases with time as a result of simple radioactive decay; for others, the activity increases with time because of in-growth. For those radionuclides in the fission product category, the model abstraction calculates the variation of activity with time in accordance with the first order decay law. The inventory of short-lived fission products, such as 90Sr and 137Cs, decreases substantially over the 10,000-year compliance period. In contrast, the inventories of long-lived fission products such as 14C, 99Tc, and 129I decrease only slightly over the compliance period. 2-8 July 2004 No. 7: In-Package Environment Table 2-3. Nominal Initial Radionuclide Inventory for Each Waste Form Commercial SNF (g per waste package) 2.50 × 10-6 8.28 × 103 1.26 × 103 1.37 × 100 1.77 × 101 4.41 × 103 5.97 × 103 1.75 × 103 4.63 × 103 9.28 × 10-3 1.54 × 103 4.37 × 104 2.08 × 104 2.69 × 103 5.34 × 103 –b –b 2.52 × 103 7.64 × 103 –b 1.54 × 10-1 –b 1.03 × 10-2 5.83 × 10-2 1.77 × 103 6.34 × 104 3.89 × 104 7.92 × 106 Radionuclide 227Ac 241Am 243Am 14Ca 245Cm 135Cs 137Cs 129I 237Np 231Pa 238Pu 239Pu 240Pu 241Pu 242Pu 226Ra 228Ra 90Sr 99Tc 229Th 230Th 232Th 232U 233U 234U 235U 236U 238U Source: BSC 2003d, Section 7.1, Table 21. NOTE: Year of inventory projection: Commercial SNF, 2033; DOE SNF, 2030; and HLW, 2030. Total number of waste packages is 11,184 (7,772 commercial SNF and 3,412 codisposed). a 18% of 14C for commercial SNF resides in the hardware outside of the cladding. b For these radionuclides, the inventory is an unknown small number. For the radionuclides of actinide elements, the model abstraction accounts for the decay sequence and calculates the activity of each radionuclide as a function of decay and in-growth. Many of the actinide elements in Table 2-3 are daughter products. If the nuclear waste remains contained in the waste packages, the decay history of each radionuclide can be analytically calculated in accordance with its decay sequence and half-life (Figure 2-3). No. 7: In-Package Environment DOE SNF (g per waste package) 1.2 × 10-3 2.15 × 102 6.63 × 100 1.78 × 100 9.11 × 10-2 9.59 × 101 9.57 × 101 3.51 × 101 8.02 × 101 2.11 × 100 1.23 × 101 2.18 × 103 4.28 × 102 2.88 × 101 2.97 × 101 4.50 × 10-5 1.49 × 10-5 5.14 × 101 1.56 × 102 3.19 × 10-1 1.16 × 10-1 2.14 × 104 1.26 × 100 5.30 × 102 4.66 × 102 2.47 × 104 1.23 × 103 6.74 × 105 2-9 Revision 1 HLW (g per waste package) –b 2.07 × 10-4 4.07 × 101 6.24 × 10-1 5.89 × 10-2 1.38 × 102 3.28 × 102 7.89 × 101 1.08 × 102 1.66 × 100 4.24 × 101 6.06 × 102 5.01 × 101 1.32 × 100 4.22 × 100 2.63 × 10-5 6.51 × 10-6 1.89 × 102 1.10 × 103 3.58 × 10-3 8.81 × 10-4 3.23 × 104 4.43 × 10-4 2.11 × 101 2.53 × 101 1.53 × 103 6.50 × 101 2.57 × 105 July 2004 July 2004 Source: BSC 2002a, Table 2; Figure adapted from CRWMS M&O 2000a, Figure 3.5-6. Figure 2-3. Decay Histories for Radionuclides Modeled in Total System Performance Assessment for License Application 2-10 No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 2.3 SOURCE OF DATA AND SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS A 1995 data submittal from the commercial utilities provided the basic information from which the TSPA for the site recommendation (TSPA-SR) analysis inventory for commercial SNF was developed. At that time, the utilities supplied historical information about reactor assembly discharges up through December 1995, and they provided forecasts for the next five assembly discharges from their reactors. With this information, a design basis waste stream was developed in 1999 Design Basis Waste Input Report for Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel (CRWMS M&O 1999a), as well as forecasts for assembly discharges over the lifetime of each commercial power reactor. This same information is also used for the TSPA-LA analysis to arrive at the nominal values in Table 2-4. In addition, 2002 Waste Stream Projections Report (Williams 2003) was used in conjunction with the 1995 data to develop the uncertainty bounds for the nominal commercial SNF inventory values. 2002 Waste Stream Projections Report (Williams 2003) provides bounding waste stream information to capture probable limits of what might occur in the future with regard to fuel selection by utilities. Table 2-4. Uncertainty Multipliers for the Initial Radionuclide Inventory for Each Waste Form Type Parameter Isotopes Distribution Minimum Most Likely DOE SNF All except 238U Triangular 0.45 0.62 2.9 Commercial SNF All except 238U Uniform 0.85 N/A 1.4 Maximum Source: BSC 2003d, Section 7.1, Table 22. NOTE: See Section 2.4 for a discussion on how uncertainty multipliers were developed. DOE SNF information was collected from Source Term Estimates for DOE Spent Nuclear Fuels (DOE 2003a). This report provided information for the 28 radionuclides of interest and provided the basis for the modification to the codisposal waste package configurations by the addition of the wide canisters. The HLW radionuclide inventory (in curies per canister for each radionuclide) has been evaluated for the borosilicate glass to be produced at the four sites that will be supplying HLW to the repository: Hanford Site (14,500 canisters), Savannah River Site (5,978 canisters), Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (1,190 canisters), and West Valley Demonstration Project (300 canisters) for a total of approximately 22,000 HLW canisters (CRWMS M&O 2000b, Section 5.0). As this total exceeds the approximately 16,000 HLW canisters that will be disposed of in the mountain, each site’s total radionuclide inventory was proportionally assigned in accordance with its total production. High-Level Radioactive Waste All Triangular 0.70 1 1.5 July 2004 2.4 UNCERTAINTIES, LIMITATIONS, AND MODEL CONFIDENCE An important source of uncertainty in the model of radionuclide inventory stems from the assumption that screening radionuclides at the 95% level is appropriate for TSPA-LA (see Section 2.1.2). To address this uncertainty, an additional screening was performed at the 99% level. At the 99% level, an additional 10 radionuclides were identified as important to dose in the 2-11 No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 groundwater scenarios, and an additional nine radionuclides were identified as important to dose in the volcanic eruption scenario. Of the 10 marginally important radionuclides identified at the 99% level for the groundwater scenarios, five are included in TSPA-LA because they are precursors to radionuclides identified as important at the 95% screening level (241Pu, 242Pu, 232Th, 235 237 U, and 236U); five are not included in the TSPA-LA (36Cl, 244Cm, 63Ni, 210Pb, and 126Sn). Of the nine marginally important radionuclides identified as important to dose in the volcanic eruption scenario, six are included in the TSPA-LA modeling of the volcanic eruption scenario ( Np, 231Pa, 242Pu, 126Sn, 99Tc, and 228Th), while three are not included in TSPA-LA modeling of the volcanic eruption scenario (225Ac, 244Cm, and 225Ra). There are three sources of uncertainty in the radionuclide inventory common to all waste types. The first is due to the computational method and nuclear data used in predicting future radionuclide inventories (e.g., isotopic neutron cross section or decay half-life). The second source of uncertainty is the completeness of records kept for SNF burnup history and HLW batch compositions. The third source of uncertainty, which is the most difficult to quantify, is the uncertainty about future decisions that may influence the creation, packaging, or shipment of waste (BSC 2003d, Section 6.6). An analysis of these sources of uncertainty yielded the uncertainty multipliers shown in Table 2-4. 2.4.1 Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel An analysis of the potential error associated with the computational method and nuclear data, which also includes error in burnup history, has provided correction factors (i.e., ratios) to represent the minimum and maximum errors of 0.89 and 1.08 for the inventory of commercial SNF (BSC 2003d, Section 6.6.1). The uncertainty due to heterogeneity of waste in the repository average inventories was investigated by comparing average burnups of three 1999 arrival forecasts and four 2002 arrival forecasts (BSC 2003d, Section 6.6.1). The minimum and maximum ratios of the projected average burnups for these cases over those given in Table 2-4 are 0.95 and 1.3. When multiplied by the minimum and maximum correction factors of 0.89 and 1.08 for the computational method, a range of 0.85 to about 1.4 is obtained (BSC 2003d, Section 6.6.1). Since all the radionuclide inventory, except 238U, is highly burnup-dependent, they should not be sampled independently. Therefore, an uncertainty multiplier is chosen, which is sampled and then applied to all radionuclide inventories except 238U. In defining the probability distribution of this multiplier, the end points are known, but the shape of the uncertainty distribution is not. In the absence of further information, a uniform distribution is the distribution of choice because it equally weighs all possible values. In the TSPA-LA model, a uniform distribution from 0.85 to 1.4 for an uncertainty multiplier is applied to the nominal values (provided in Table 2-3) for all radionuclides except 238U. The 238U uncertainty is very small and not modeled in TSPA-LA (BSC 2003d, Section 6.6.1). 2.4.2 U.S. Department of Energy Spent Nuclear Fuel The fuel information currently available at DOE storage sites is often determined by the records requirements and the intended disposition path at the time the fuel was placed into storage. These requirements and disposition paths were often unique to each of the sites and evolved over 2-12 July 2004 No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 time. As a result, the availability and completeness of the radionuclide inventories and associated documentation varies considerably for DOE SNF. Detailed characterization of these fuels is not necessary because the conservative source term estimate for these fuels is used for repository design, analyses, and licensing activities. A conservative estimate of this SNF inventory was developed for each of the DOE SNF storage sites. The inventory was generated using calculational techniques described in Methodologies for Calculating DOE Spent Nuclear Fuel Source Terms (DOE 2000), which uses relevant experimental data and confirmatory studies. Additional studies that demonstrate the validity of the model and underlying codes have been performed (DOE 2003a, p. 14). The result of this work is a database with over 500 DOE SNF types. Each DOE SNF type has entries that include the radionuclide inventory, number of assemblies, and number and type of canisters that will contain the DOE SNF. The inventory estimates given in Source Term Estimates for DOE Spent Nuclear Fuels (DOE 2003a) provide both a nominal and a bounding radionuclide inventory estimate for each type of DOE SNF. Even though the bounding radionuclide inventory estimates were provided for the purpose of assessing preclosure risk associated with handling a worst-case canister, the values are used to represent a bounding inventory for assessing postclosure risk as well (BSC 2003d, Section 6.6.2). The nominal and bounding inventories per waste package for the weighted average of all DOE SNF waste reported by Source Term Estimates for DOE Spent Nuclear Fuels (DOE 2003a) were analyzed. A range of total DOE SNF inventory (0.62 to 2 times the nominal inventory) was established on the following basis: • The nominal inventory includes extremely conservative assumptions applied to the small percentage of fuel (0.31%) for which little information is available. These assumptions result in 38% of the total inventory in 0.31% of the fuel, resulting in a potential overestimation of the total curie inventory by about 38% (DOE 2003a, p. 39). • The best estimate inventory has a ratio of 0.62 to the nominal inventory (BSC 2003d, Section 6.6.2). The best estimate inventory is lower than the nominal through removal of the extreme conservatism applied to the small percentage of fuel (0.31%) with little information and in effect replacing these assumptions with the approximation that the 0.31% of the fuel has the same inventory as the average of the remaining fuel (DOE 2003a). • The bounding radionuclide inventory is 1 to 2 times the nominal inventory per waste package (BSC 2003d, Section 6.6.2). Taking the total DOE SNF inventory, including uncertainty, the inventory was applied across the expected number of DOE SNF canisters. Because of uncertainty in the loading of fuel into the DOE SNF canisters, the DOE SNF canister count range is between 2,500 and 5,000, with a best estimate of 3,607 (DOE 2003a; Luptak 2003). Applying a factor of 3,607/5,000 (0.72) to the best estimate inventory (0.62 times the July 2004 2-13 No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 nominal) and a factor of 3,607/2,500 (1.44) to the maximum DOE SNF inventory (2 times the nominal) and 3,607/5,000 to the reasonable canister inventories results in a per canister inventory range of 0.45 to 2.9 times the nominal, with a best estimate of 0.62 times the nominal. This range is shown in Table 2-4. 238 Like commercial SNF, the uncertainties of the DOE SNF radionuclide inventories are correlated, and an uncertainty multiplier is defined to capture the uncertainty for all radionuclides except U. The inventory of 238U has much less relative uncertainty than the other radionuclides because it is present in the initial fuel and generally changes little during reactor operation. Only three points are available to define a probability distribution for the DOE SNF multiplier, a minimum value, a most likely value, and a maximum value. In this situation, the choice of a triangular distribution is reasonable. Thus the DOE SNF multiplier is defined as a triangular distribution, with a minimum of 0.45, most likely value of 0.62, and a maximum of 2.9. It is to be applied to the nominal values for DOE SNF grams per waste package in Table 2-3 for all isotopes except 238U. 2.5 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS The radionuclide inventory component defines the four waste forms (commercial SNF; naval spent fuel (which is modeled as commercial SNF); DOE SNF; and HLW glass) and the two representative types of waste packages (commercial SNF waste packages and the codisposal waste packages containing both DOE SNF and HLW glass) planned for disposal in the repository. In addition, of the more than 100 radionuclides potentially present in the repository, 28 radionuclides have been identified as being important to dose during the 10,000-year regulatory period. The initial inventory of these 28 radionuclides for the three waste forms modeled in TSPA-LA is given, as is the uncertainty associated with that inventory. The inventory of commercial SNF, which is the most abundant waste type to be disposed of in the 2.4.3 High-Level Radioactive Waste Glass The uncertainty in the repository average inventories was investigated by comparing three radionuclide loadings and three canister-filling cases (BSC 2003d, Section 6.6.3). As was the case with commercial SNF and DOE SNF, the uncertainties in HLW radionuclide inventories are dependent on the same factors for HLW, in this case radionuclide loading per canister. Therefore, an uncertainty multiplier is again used to represent the uncertainty in the HLW inventory. With the current information, the nominal values reported in Table 2-4 are the most likely values, and thus the most likely value for the uncertainty multiplier is 1 (BSC 2003d, Section 6.6.3). The minimum number of waste packages is 0.70 times the central value, and the maximum number of canisters is 1.3 times the central value. Because of the uncertainty in possible new vitrified waste forms at the Savannah River Site with loading up to 50% higher, it is prudent to overestimate the upper limit. A maximum loading of 55% was chosen to provide margin, which corresponds to a ratio of 1.5 (BSC 2003d, Section 6.6.3). With the most likely maximum and minimum defined, a triangular distribution is chosen for the HLW uncertainty multiplier for use by the TSPA-LA model. This multiplier is to be applied to the nominal HLW inventories shown in Table 2-3 for all isotopes (including 238U). The uncertainty multiplier has a triangular distribution with a minimum of 0.70, most likely value of 1, and a maximum of 1.5 as shown in Table 2-4. 2-14 July 2004 No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 repository, has the least uncertainty while the inventory of DOE SNF, which is the least abundant waste type to be disposed of in the repository, has the most uncertainty. Because the TSPA-LA model can simulate the degradation and failure of individual waste packages, the radionuclide inventories are provided on a grams-per-package basis. July 2004 2-15 No. 7: In-Package Environment INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK 2-16 No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 July 2004 Revision 1 3.1 ASSUMPTIONS As discussed in Section 2, two general types of waste packages are considered as representative of all waste packages: commercial SNF and codisposal waste packages containing both DOE SNF and HLW glass. For purposes of modeling in-package chemistry, the latter is represented by a waste package containing two N Reactor SNF canisters and two HLW canisters (BSC 2004b, Section 6.3.3). N Reactor SNF was selected to represent the DOE SNF in the codisposal waste package because examination of the dissolution rate literature for other DOE SNF waste forms (DOE 2002b, Section 6) indicates that the degradation rate of N Reactor fuel generally exceeds that of the other types of DOE SNF and because N Reactor SNF comprises approximately 85% of the total metric tons of heavy metal of DOE SNF (DOE 2002b, Appendix D). The in-package chemistry model simulates chemical interactions of water with the waste package materials and waste forms for both types of waste packages under different physical, hydrologic, and chemical conditions. The simulations are performed with the reaction-path code EQ3/6 (Wolery 1992; Wolery and Daveler 1992), with the assumption that the water will always maintain equilibrium with precipitated secondary mineral phases as waste package components slowly dissolve. The outer shell of the waste package (Alloy 22) is assumed to be inert because of its extremely slow corrosion rate (CRWMS M&O 2000c, p. 109, Section 6.9.1). The calculation also assumes that oxygen is in equilibrium with the ambient atmosphere outside of the waste package. Therefore, the fugacity of O2 is set to the atmospheric value, 0.2 atm (BSC 2004b, Section 6.3.1). Localized reducing conditions may occur as corrosion products limit the access of oxygen to metal surfaces. However, lower redox conditions would favor substantially lower radionuclide solubilities. Two different water ingress models are considered (BSC 2004b, Section 1): the no-drip model, which represents scenarios in which advection through the waste package does not occur, and the seepage-dripping model, which represents scenarios in which water can flow through the waste 3. IN-PACKAGE CHEMISTRY Two sets of calculations were performed to estimate the chemistry of fluids reacting with SNF: one set represents conditions expected under the nominal and seismic scenario classes; the other set represents conditions expected under the igneous intrusion scenario. The bulk of this section describes the in-package chemistry model for the nominal and seismic scenario classes. Section 3.6 presents the in-package chemistry model for the igneous intrusion scenario. The in-package chemistry model simulates the chemistry of water as it reacts with waste package components and waste forms inside failed waste packages. The primary input parameters for the in-package chemistry model include the chemistry of seepage waters, the compositions of waste package materials and waste forms, and the corrosion rates of waste package components. The outputs of the model (which include pH, ionic strength, fluoride concentration, and total carbonate) are used, either directly or indirectly, as inputs to the models that evaluate dissolved concentrations of radionuclides, commercial SNF matrix degradation, HLW glass degradation, and colloid stability in the TSPA-LA calculations. The material presented in this section is primarily drawn from In-Package Chemistry Abstraction (BSC 2004b). 3-1 July 2004 No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 package. In the no-drip model, water enters a failed waste package by vapor diffusion and subsequently reacts with the package materials and waste forms. The solutes exit the package by diffusion only. The evolution and the uncertainty range of in-package chemistry were simulated using individual waste package components or the combinations of these components as reactants, based on the consideration that water mixing may not fully occur in the waste package due to lack of advective flow. In the seepage-dripping model, seepage water drips into a waste package and continuously exits the package by advection after reacting with the package contents. In this case, the in-package chemistry is simulated by assuming that solutions reacting with various waste package components will be well mixed during the percolation inside a waste package. One of the model boundary conditions is that a continuous water film forms over the waste package components. The thickness of the film is fixed to be 1 mm for commercial SNF and 2 mm for codisposal waste packages in the no-drip model, and 2.5 mm for commercial SNF and 3.5 mm for codisposal waste packages in the seepage-dripping model. The basis for these thicknesses is that they represent the minimum values required by the EQ3/6 code to complete the entire suite of simulations. They are also reasonable separation half-distances for the situation being modeled; with degradation and collapse of basket materials, the interior of the waste form will consist of loosely compacted fuel and basket elements separated by millimeterto centimeter-size apertures. In the current model, no water evaporation is allowed to occur inside the waste package (BSC 2004b, Section 6.3.2). This assumption may lead to a lower ionic strength of in-package water. As discussed in Section 7, a high ionic strength decreases colloid stability; thus, a lower ionic strength could allow more radionuclides to escape from the waste package in colloidal form (BSC 2003h, Figures 4 and 7). 3.2 RELEVANT PROCESSES 3.2.1 Water Fluxes In the no-drip model, it is assumed that water will form a continuous water film on waste package components. However, in reality, this may not occur because water condensation can only be possible when the waste package temperature is equal to or below the ambient temperature. Given the fact that the interior of a waste package is the source of heat and the waste package temperature after closure is maintained above 40°C during the 10,000-year regulatory period (BSC 2004e, Figure 6.5-3), the formation of a water film over waste package materials seems unlikely. As a simplifying assumption, this thermal effect is not considered in the in-package chemistry model. The diffusive flux of water vapor is calculated to be 0.8 L/yr (43.88 mol/yr) per waste package for isothermal conditions (BSC 2004f, Section 6.3.1). The no-drip model is simulated in EQ3/6 as a titration (Wolery and Daveler 1992). That is, water and the reactants are added to a reaction vessel at their respective kinetic rates or diffusion flux for water; products form and may redissolve, but no water exits the system (Wolery and Daveler 1992, p. 42, Figure 3). In the seepage-dripping model, seepage drips onto the upper surface of the waste package and penetrates the waste package through an opening. The solution then flows through the waste July 2004 3-2 No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 package, forming a film on the interior waste package components, reacting, mixing, and transporting the dissolved material out of the waste package. There is no accumulation of water in the waste package. The water flux through the waste package is varied from 0.15 to 15.0 L/yr, representing low to moderate seepage rates (BSC 2003j, Figure 6.8-3). Use of a lower water flux increases the contact time of water with waste package components and thus allows the chemical reactions to progress further. For sensitivity analyses, a few simulations were performed with flux rates as high as 1,000 L/yr. In the seepage-dripping model, the solid-centered flow-through option in EQ6 is used. This option simulates a single-cell batch reactor. Seepage water gflowsh into the cell at a specified rate while reactants are added to the cell at rates dictated by the degradation rates of their source materials. Water exits the cell at the same rate as it enters. 3.2.2 Kinetic Degradation of Package Components The rate at which waste package components degrade, together with the rate of water influx, determine the evolution of in-package water chemistry. The degradation rate of commercial SNF is formulated as a function of pH and dissolved carbonate concentration, while the rate of HLW dissolution is described as a function of pH only, based on transition state theory and experimental measurements (see Section 5). For the corrosion of the codisposed N Reactor SNF and the metal alloys in the waste package, constant reaction rates are used. The reaction rates also depend on the surface areas of waste package components exposed, which have been estimated based on the configurations and dimensions of waste packages (BSC 2004b, Sections 6.5.2 to 6.5.4). The surface areas are assumed to remain constant during degradation. This assumption is reasonable because the surface area would decrease as the quantity of a remaining reactant decreases while, on the other hand, it could also increase due to grain disaggregation. For the no-drip model, the calculations have been performed for the following percentages of surface area exposure: 10% for commercial SNF, 100% for HLW glass, and 50% for N Reactor SNF. For the seepage-dripping model, the following percentages are considered: 1%, 10%, and 100% for commercial SNF, and 100% for both HLW and N Reactor SNF. These values were chosen only to parameterize the impact of coverage on effluent chemistry. The time-dependent percentage of commercial SNF surface area exposed as cladding splits (discussed in Section 4) and the surface areas of commercial SNF and high-level radioactive waste used in the waste form degradation models (discussed in Section 5) are not input to the in-package chemistry model when the model is implemented in TSPA-LA. (Eq. 3-1) (Eq. 3-2) 3.2.3 Potential Generation of Alkaline or Acid Waters The waste package components could have a significant impact on the predicted in-package pH. The dissolution of high-level radioactive waste glass, which contains high concentrations of sodium and potassium, could generate an alkaline condition by releasing alkalis (Na+, K+, or Ca2+) into solution: Glass.Na+ + H+ ¨ Na+ + Glass.H+ In contrast, the Carbon Steel Type A516, which contains elemental sulfur, is a strong acid generator: Metal.S + H2O + 3/2O2 ¨ SO4 2. + 2H+ + Metal+ 3-3 July 2004 No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 Similarly, the Stainless Steel Type 304L, also containing elemental sulfur, could also potentially generate an acid solution. However, its effect is expected to be much smaller than Carbon Steel Type A516, because of its very slow corrosion rate. The pH resulting from these two reactions will be altered by other chemical reactions such as surface complexation on corrosion products, leading to a near neutral pH range. 3.2.4 Surface Complexation Steel corrosion, which is rapid relative to fuel oxidation, will result in a large accumulation of ferric (hydr)oxide corrosion products inside the waste package. It is estimated that 10 to 40 moles of ferric (hydr)oxides (ferrihydrite, goethite, or hematite) are potentially able to form per liter of void space due to the degradation of low carbon and stainless steel (BSC 2004b, Section 6.3.3). Roughly half appears in the first 100 years after package failure due to the degradation of Carbon Steel Type A516. From 0.2% to 90% of precipitated iron(III) is able to react with solutions. This is equivalent to 0.02 to 40 moles of pH-buffering sites available per liter of water. Such a large buffering capacity will be a dominant factor controlling in-package chemistry. Given the fact that Carbon Steel Type A516 contains only trace amounts of sulfur (approximately 0.035 wt %) (Table 3-1), the proton release from reaction (Equation 3-2) will be overwhelmed by surface complexation on the corrosion products. Since the isoelectric point of ferric (hydr)oxides is approximately pH 7 to 8 (Davis and Kent 1990, Table 4, p. 210), the surfaces of these solids will acquire protons at pH less than 7 and lose them to solution at pH greater than 8, in effect limiting the pH range to near neutral. July 2004 3-4 No. 7: In-Package Environment Sulfur Silicon Nickel Cobalt Iron Boron Zinc Element Carbon Manganese Phosphorus Chromium Molybdenum Nitrogen Copper Magnesium Titanium Aluminum Total Source: BSC 2004b, Table 8. 100.00 NOTE: a A nickel alloy interspersed with gadolinium (UNS N06464) is recommended to replace Neutronit as the absorber material. The effects of this change on in-package chemistry should be negligible because deleting the Neutronit does not significantly change the quantity of available stainless steel; the low corrosion rates of the nickel alloy relative to stainless steel will result in slightly higher in-package pH (i.e., less aggressive), and gadolinium will form phosphates that are fairly insoluble (Loros and Williams 2004). 100.00 3.2.5 Precipitation and Dissolution of Uranium Minerals The uranium mineral, schoepite, together with iron corrosion products, dominates the composition of the alteration products from 500 years and beyond (BSC 2004b, Section 6.8.2). Whether schoepite dissolution produces or consumes hydrogen ions depends on the pH of the solution: (Eq. 3-3) (Eq. 3-4) UO3¡¤2H2O + 2H+ ¡ê UO2 +2 + 3H2O for pH ¡Â 5.5 These two reactions constitute a negative feedback that resists pH excursions to high or low pH, and ultimately constrains pH values near the schoepite solubility minimum pH 6.5 to 7, No. 7: In-Package Environment Table 3-1. Composition of Steel and Aluminum Alloys Carbon Steel Type A516 (wt %) 0.28 1.045 0.035 0.035 0.29 . . . . . 98.3 . . . . . . Neutronita (wt %) 0.04 . . . . 18.5 13 0.2 2.2 . 64.82 1.245 . . . . . 100.00 UO3¡¤2H2O + 3HCO3 . ¡ê UO2(CO3)3 .4 + H+ + 3H2O for pH > 7-7.5 SS31600 (wt %) 0.02 2.00 0.045 0.03 0.75 17.00 12.00 . 2.50 0.08 65.58 . . . . . . Al-6061 (wt %) . 0.15 . . 0.60 0.195 . . . . 0.7 . 0.25 0.275 1.0 0.15 96.68 100.00 100.00 3-5 Revision 1 Stainless Steel Type 304L (wt %) 0.03 2.00 0.05 0.03 0.75 19.00 10.00 . . 0.10 68.05 . . . . . . Al-1100 (wt %) . . . . 0.45 . . . . . 0.50 . . 0.05 . . 99.00 100.00 July 2004 Revision 1 depending on the ambient carbon dioxide fugacity. The carbon dioxide fugacity determines the total concentration of aqueous carbonate species (see Section 3.5.3). 3.2.6 Effect of Radiolysis When radiation passes through a material, some energy is deposited in the medium and chemical reactions can occur from the local deposition of energy (radiolysis). When gamma and fast neutron energy pass through moist air, nitric acid is produced. Hydrogen peroxide is generated from the radiolysis of water. Thus, radiolysis could potentially influence the results of the in-package chemistry model. However, EQ3/6 simulations show that the amount of acid produced from radiolysis has an insignificant effect on in-package chemistry (BSC 2004b, Attachment III). 3.2.7 Effect of Temperature Most EQ3/6 simulations were run at either 25°C or 50°C. However, a few simulations were run at higher temperatures to investigate the effect of temperature on pH and ionic strength (BSC 2004b, Section 6.7.5). The results show that as temperature increases, pH tends to decrease and ionic strength remains largely unaffected. The reason for the decrease in pH is related to the increased dissociation of the water molecule as temperature rises. The effect of temperature was included in the pH abstraction used in TSPA-LA, as described in Section 3.5.1. 3.3 SOURCE OF DATA The primary input parameters for the in-package chemistry model include the chemistry of seepage waters, the compositions of waste package materials and waste forms, and the corrosion rates of waste package components (BSC 2004b, Section 4). For reference, some of these parameters are listed in Tables 3-1 through 3-4. Table 3-4 gives experimental corrosion rates of the metal alloys in the waste package. The corrosion rate data in Table 3-4 were collected under a variety of conditions and provide the basis for the metal alloy corrosion rates used in the inpackage chemistry abstraction and shown in the last column of Table 3-4. July 2004 3-6 No. 7: In-Package Environment Table 3-2. Input Water Composition for Model Calculation Units mg/L mg/L mg/L mg/L mg/L mg/L mg/L mg/L mg/L mg/L mg/L pH Source: BSC 2004b, Table 2. Parameter Ca Mg Na K Si SiO2 NO3 HCO3 Cl F SO4 pH NOTE: c aSample: ECRB-SYS-CS1000/7.3-7.7/UC; DTN: GS020408312272.003. bSample: ECRB-SYS-CS2000/16.3-16.5/UC; DTN: GS020408312272.003. DTN: MO0006J13WTRCM.000. d Harrar et al. 1990, pp. 4–9. Calcium Pore Water ECRB-SYS-CS1000/ 7.3-7.7/UCa 94 18.1 39 7.6 N/A 42 2.6 397 21 3.4 36 7.6 No. 7: In-Package Environment Sodium Pore Water ECRB-SYS-CS2000/ 16.3-16.5/UCb 81 3.3 120 6.1 N/A 42 0.41 362 24 6 31 7.4 3-7 Revision 1 Well J-13c 13.0 2.01 45.8 5.04 28.5 N/A 8.78 Calculated from charge balance 7.14 2.18 18.4 7d July 2004 Table 3-3. Chemical Composition of Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel, N Reactor Fuel, and High-Level Radioactive Waste Glass Element Uranium Neptunium Plutonium Zirconium Molybdenum Technetium Ruthenium Cesium Barium Gadolinium Oxygen Aluminum Sulfur Calcium Phosphorus Silicon Boron Fluorine Iron Potassium Magnesium Sodium Source: BSC 2004b, Tables 10 and 11. No. 7: In-Package Environment Commercial SNF (mol/100 g) 0.3617 0.0009 0.0027 0.0005 0.0009 0.0008 0.0020 0.0013 0.0010 0.0035 0.7385 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N Reactor Fuel (mol/100 g) 0.42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3-8 Revision 1 High-Level Radioactive Waste Glass (mol/100 g) 0.00782 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00108 0 2.70 0.0863 0.00401 0.0162 0.000489 0.776 0.291 0.00166 0.172 0.0751 0.0333 0.577 July 2004 Metal Carbon Steel Type A516 (times less than 0.53 years) Carbon Steel Type A516 (times greater than 1.0 years) Neutronit Aluminum Alloy Stainless Steel Type 316 Stainless Steel Type 304L Source: BSC 2004b, Table 9; BSC 2004g, Table 7-4. Min. 78.71 58.08 50.25 7.39 65.77 29.53 6.77 3.69 0.001 0.025 1.810 0.40 0.12 0.037 0.001 1.588 0.660 NOTE: ó = standard deviation; SDW = simulated dilute water; SCW = simulated concentrated water. See note in Table 3-1. Rate Used in the In-Package Chemistry Model (µm/yr) 72 0.1 3.0 0.1 0.1 3.3.1 Initial Water Compositions For the seepage-dripping model, three water compositions have been used for the initial conditions (BSC 2004b, Table 2), as shown in Table 3-2: (1) a calcium-dominated pore water, (2) a sodium-dominated pore water, and (3) a J-13 well water. The calcium- and sodium-dominated pore water compositions were used because they were obtained from core samples near the repository. The decision to use these water compositions was based on several lines of reasoning. The J-13 well water composition was used for comparison purposes (i.e., to maintain continuity between the current work and past in-package chemistry analyses). The calcium and sodium pore water compositions, corresponding to pore waters “W5” and “W4,” respectively in Drift-Scale Coupled Processes (DST and THC Seepage) Models (BSC 2004e), are used because they were obtained from core samples proximal to the repository. These two pore waters represent possible in situ water compositions in the unsaturated repository horizon. Pore water compositions can also be perturbed thermally during the postclosure time period. However, a sensitivity analysis has shown that this perturbation is negligible (BSC 2004b, No. 7: In-Package Environment Table 3-4. Metal Alloy Corrosion Rates 0.0014 14.787 0.7362 Median Mean 130.70 101.95 102.71 81.14 77.05 68.08 62.77 12.78 12.42 77.43 74.56 51.80 48.70 10.61 10.83 6.84 6.75 0.004 0.003 0.206 0.203 11.060 10.190 7.38 12.95 9.50 9.69 4.76 0.0083 0.0136 0.003 0.248 0.229 1.939 0.214 0.1285 11.441 11.134 5.08 5.816 2.03 Freshwater (29.5°C) 0.0007 0.0475 Max. 130.02 104.20 22.06 106.93 88.68 14.36 9.35 0.011 0.330 29.220 36.93 110.91 0.51 1.570 39.147 15.900 Condition SDW (60°C) SDW (90°C) SCW (60°C) SCW (90°C) SDW (60°C) SDW (90°C) SCW (90°C) SCW (90°C) Freshwater (29.5°C) Freshwater (50°C to 100°C) Saltwater (26.7°C) Freshwater Saltwater Freshwater (50°C to 100°C) Saltwater (26.7°C) Freshwater (25°C to 100°C) Saltwater (26.7°C) Saltwater (90°C) Corrosion rate (µm/yr) 3-9 Revision 1 ó 12.37 15.13 14.17 3.77 8.83 12.99 2.02 1.25 0.004 0.088 10.84 15.34 0.146 3.346 0.298 5.953 July 2004 Revision 1 Figure 14). For the no-drip model, the initial water is assumed to be pure water in equilibrium with the ambient fugacities of CO2 and O2 (BSC 2004b, Section 6.3). 3.3.2 Compositions of Waste Package Components The chemical composition of each component is listed in Table 3-3. Table 3-3 summarizes the composition of commercial SNF, N Reactor fuel, and HLW glass. As discussed in Section 2, the commercial SNF is an oxide fuel while the N Reactor SNF is a uranium metal fuel. 3.3.3 Corrosion Rates Metal corrosion rates are used to estimate the mean lifetime of the waste form internals and allow prediction of the time needed for structural collapse to occur. Metal corrosion proceeds initially by the direct oxidation of reduced constituents (iron, aluminum, chromium, etc.) to form a coating of metal hydroxides that can slow the further access of water and oxygen to the dissolving metal surface. Consequently, absolute rates of corrosion depend on both the oxidation step and the stability and chemical reactivity of the corrosion product layer. Solution chemistries that solubilize the latter, for example, can accelerate corrosion. Corrosion rates are important to the in-package chemistry model because they allow some predictions to be made of the rate of metal hydroxide accumulation, which is important for pH control, radionuclide sorption, and potential colloid formation. The corrosion rates of metal alloys are given in Table 3-4. These rates will encompass various aqueous parameters such as temperature (up to 100°C), water type (i.e., fresh versus saline), and pH. The corrosion rates of the different waste forms can be found in Section 5 of this document. Note that the corrosion rate of Carbon Steel Type A516 is about 3 orders of magnitude higher than that of Stainless Steel Type 304L. Therefore, even though both materials contain a similar sulfur content, their impacts on in-package pH will be quite different, as discussed in Section 3.2.3. 3.4 EVOLUTION OF IN-PACKAGE CHEMISTRY The temporal evolution of in-package chemistry is calculated by assigning kinetic rates to waste package component degradation. Note that the starting time for the in-package chemistry model refers to the time at which waste packages are breached and sufficient water becomes available for chemical reactions. As discussed in Section 3.2, the in-package chemistry is controlled not only by waste and waste package corrosion and the associated mineral precipitation or dissolution, but also by surface complexation on corrosion products. The EQ3/6 code does not model interfacial chemical processes such as surface complexation. Thus, in-package conditions have been modeled in two steps. First, EQ3/6 calculations were made simulating the evolution of these conditions without considering the effects of surface complexation reactions for 20,000 years following the start of reactions in the package (which is significantly beyond the 10,000-year regulatory period). Second, the effects of surface complexation reactions on the in-package pH are modeled. The surface sites on which these reactions take place will be available for at least several hundred years, as long as a significant amount of steel degradation is occurring. During this period, surface complexation rather than the reactions modeled by EQ3/6 will likely control the in-package pH (BSC 2004b, Section 6.3.3). 3-10 July 2004 No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 The pHs predicted inside the waste form tend to be near neutral indicating that the pH-buffering ability of corrosion product surface complexation and schoepite dissolution will limit pH excursions. The isoelectric point of ferric corrosion products and the solubility minimum of schoepite are both near neutral. Equilibration of acidic or alkaline fluids with ferric corrosion products and schoepite consequently limits pHs to between approximately 4.5 and 8. Increasing carbon dioxide levels causes a slight shift of pHs to lower values while favoring the formation of carbonate-containing surface complexes at the corrosion product-solution interface and dissolved uranyl-carbonate species. The pH abstractions capture the net effect of these processes (BSC 2004b, Section 6.8.2). 3.4.1.1 No-Drip Model Figure 3-1 displays the EQ3/6 simulation results for individual commercial SNF components at 25°C (BSC 2004b, Figure 1). The figure provides information on how each waste package component contributes to the in-package pH and shows the upper and lower pH limits for a commercial SNF package without considering the effects of surface complexation reactions. Note that the horizontal axis is in terms of moles of material dissolved independent of time. The low pH resulting from Carbon Steel Type A516 corrosion is due to the combination of oxidation of elemental sulfur, the large quantity of Carbon Steel Type A516, and its high corrosion rate relative to the other waste package components. Both the Al-6061 and the commercial SNF have neutral to slightly basic pH profiles, while the S31600 and Neutronit (borated Carbon Steel Type 316) have slightly acidic pH profiles. The simulations have also been performed for multicomponent ensembles and resulted in a similar pH range (BSC 2004b, Figure 2). The simulations show that if it were not for the surface complexation reactions, the early-time pH (less than 100 years) will be controlled by Carbon Steel Type A516 dissolution, and for 100 to 500 or 1,000 years the pH would be controlled by Al-6061 dissolution. At times greater than 500 to 1,000 years, when surface complexation reactions may no longer be effective, the pH will be controlled by equilibrium with the corrosion products. 3.4.1 Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel Waste Packages 3-11 July 2004 No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 Source: DTN: MO0403SPAIPCHM.004, CSNF_singlereact_NDM.xls. 3.4.1.2 Seepage-Dripping Model The evolution of in-package chemistry for the median water flux and 10% fuel exposure at 25°C predicted by EQ3/6 is shown in Figure 3-2. Although nominal temperatures in the repository will exceed 40°C for the first 10,000 years, 25°C runs were used initially to identify the relevant chemical processes and trends as thermodynamic and kinetic data are better known at the slightly lower temperature. It can be seen that the compositions of seepage water have virtually no effect on the pH evolution. The solution pH will be quickly overwhelmed by waste package corrosion over the first 10 years. Low pH values modeled without considering the effects of surface complexation reactions result from the relatively fast corrosion of a large quantity of Carbon Steel Type A516 corrosion (Figure 3-2). As shown in the figure, however, this pH will be buffered by the corrosion of other waste package components after a few hundred years. The commercial SNF is predicted to completely degrade over approximately 5,000 years. Figure 3-1. pH Calculated as a Function of Moles of Reactant Dissolved in Kilograms of Water for Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel Single Component Degradation under No-Drip Conditions July 2004 3-12 No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 NOTE: C22C25B = Ca-pore water, C22J25B = J-13 pore water, and C22N25B = Na-pore water. Source: DTN: MO0403SPAIPCHM.004, CSNF_SDM_25_rev03.xls. 3.4.2 Codisposal Waste Packages 3.4.2.1 No-Drip Model Figure 3-3 displays the 25°C pH profiles for individual codisposal waste package components as calculated by EQ3/6. Again, note that the horizontal axis is in terms of moles of material dissolved independent of time. The codisposal waste package displays a much wider variation in pH compared to the commercial SNF package (Figure 3-1). This is because the HLW generates high pH conditions due to its high concentrations of sodium and potassium. The Al-1100, S31600, and N Reactor fall in the middle of the pH range at approximately 5.7 to 6.2. The corrosion of Carbon Steel Type A516 and Stainless Steel Type 304L corrosion leads to pH values of 1.5 to 2, as shown in Figure 3-3. However, over the first few hundred years this low pH will be buffered by surface complexation reactions of the corrosion products (BSC 2004b, Section 6.8.2). Furthermore, over longer time periods, results of the codisposal waste package multicomponent ensemble runs show that this low pH will be buffered by either HLW glass or N Reactor fuel, since the TSPA-LA model does not take cladding credit for N Reactor fuel or the glass pour canisters (BSC 2004b, Section 6.6.2.1, Figure 9). Figure 3-2. Evolution of pH and Reactants for Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel Waste Packages under 1.5-L/yr Seepage-Dripping Conditions and 10% Fuel Exposure at 25°C July 2004 3-13 No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 Source: DTN: MO0403SPAIPCHM.004, CD_singlereact_NDM.xls. 3.4.2.2 Seepage-Dripping Model Figure 3-4 displays the 25°C evolution of pH and reactants for codisposal waste packages under seepage conditions. The pH profiles converge early in the simulations indicating that the model pH response is insensitive to starting water composition, which is similar to the pH profile behavior of the commercial SNF seepage-dripping model (Figure 3-2). The figure shows that the N Reactor fuel dissolves in just a few years. The rapid dissolution of the N Reactor fuel diminishes its contribution to the overall in-package chemistry. However, the resulting large quantity of schoepite may have the capacity to influence the in-package chemistry for an extended duration. The minimum pH for codisposal waste packages is approximately one unit higher that for commercial SNF under the same chemical and physical conditions (Figure 3-2). Another important feature of the pH profiles in Figure 3-4 is the absence of a period of sustained high pH (greater than 9) that might be expected from the dissolution of the HLW glass. The codisposed no-drip models, single reactant and ensemble, both predicted that high pH conditions are possible in the absence of an acid-producing reactant (i.e., steel alloy) (Figure 3-3). However, in the seepage-dripping model, seepage is allowed to “stream” through the waste package reacting with waste package components, and it is unlikely that seepage, which has reacted with HLW glass could exit a waste package without contacting a steel component along its flow path. Figure 3-3. pH Calculated as a Function of Moles of Reactant Dissolved in Kilograms of Water for Codisposed Single Component Degradation under No-Drip Conditions July 2004 3-14 No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 Source: DTN: MO0403SPAIPCHM.004, CDNR_SDM_25_rev03.xls. Seepage-Dripping Conditions and 10% Fuel Exposure at 25‹C Figure 3-4. Evolution of pH and Reactants for Codisposal Waste Packages under 1.5-L/yr (Eq. 3-6) (Eq. 3-7) (Eq. 3-8) July 2004 3.4.3 pH Regulated by Surface Complexation As discussed in Section 3.2.4 (also see BSC 2004b, Section 6.3), a large quantity of Fe oxyhydroxides formed from steel corrosion will be available for surface complexation reactions. The surface protonation and deprotonation reactions as described by (Dzombak and Morel 1990; Appelo et al. 2002) are: + .>Fe-O-H + H+ K1 = [>Fe-O-H][H+]/[>Fe-O-H2 +] = 10.7.29 (Eq. 3-5) >Fe-OH2 >Fe-OH .>Fe-O. + H+ K2 = [>Fe-O.][H+]/[>Fe-O-H] = 10.8.93 where >Fe denotes sites exposed at the FeOOH-solution interface. Sorption of bicarbonate ions may also occur: >Fe-O-H + H+ + CO3 2. .>Fe-HCO3 . + H2O KCO3 = [>Fe-HCO3 .]aH2O/[>Fe-OH][H+][ CO3 2.] = 1012.78 3-15 No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 By accounting for the surface complexation effect, the Carbon Steel Type A516 dissolution reaction can be written as: Fe1.76Mn0.019C0.0233Si0.0103P0.00113S0.00109 + mH2O + fO2 ¡ú 0.00109SO4 2. + 0.00113(H3PO4 + H2PO4 . + HPO4 2.) + 0.0103H4SiO4 + 2CO3 + HCO3 .) + 0.019MnO2 + (1.76 . X) FeOOH + 0.0233(H X(>Fe-O-H + >Fe-O-H2 + + >Fe-O. + >Fe-O-CO3 .) + nH+. (Eq. 3-9) where X is the amount of Fe in FeOOH (moles) that is exposed to solution, mH2O is moles of water, and fO2 is fugacity of oxygen. Given a value of X = 0.176 (10% of Fe sites, a reasonable value for goethite) for dissolution of 1 mol of Carbon Steel Type A516 into a near neutral solution: 4 (Eq. 3-10) n = 2[SO 2.] + [H2PO4 .] + 2[HPO4 2.] + [HCO3 .] + [>Fe-O.] + [>Fe-O-HCO3 .] ¨C [>Fe-O-H2 +]. Similarly, charge balance for a solution in contact with carbon dioxide gas at 0.001 atm and into which 1 mol of Carbon Steel Type A516 were dissolved would be: (Eq. 3-11) (H+) + (>Fe-O-H2 +) = 2[SO4 2.] + [H2PO4 .] + 2[HPO4 2.] + (OH.) + (HCO3 .) + (>Fe-O.) +(>Fe-O-HCO3 .). The two phosphate terms can be manipulated with the equilibrium constant for their conversion to give: [H2PO4 .] = 0.00113/(1 + 10.7.2/[H+]) and [HPO4 2.] = 0.00113(1 ¨C 1/(1 + 10.7.2/[H+])). (Eq. 3-12) Substituting these expressions, carbonate equilibrium constants, the surface equilibria above, and rearranging to solve for pH: (Eq. 3-13) (H+) = 0.00218 + 0.00113/(1 + 10.7.2/[H+]) + 0.00226(1 ¨C 1/(1 + 10.7.2/[H+])) + 0.176[10.8.93/(H+) + pCO210.5.28/(H+) ¨C 107.29(H+)] + 10.14/(H+) + 10.7.82 fCO2/(H+) The equation above can be solved for pH as a function of fixed fugacity of CO2. For the relevant fugacity of CO2, the calculation shows that the surface complexation on the corrosion products of Carbon Steel Type A516 can sufficiently neutralize the acidic solution generated by sulfur oxidation and that the solution¡¯s pH will be buffered at 7.3 to 8.1. This will occur immediately after onset of A516 corrosion (that is within the first several decades after waste package breach). The effect of increasing carbon dioxide levels in the waste form is to lower the ambient pH. 3.4.4 Upper pH Limit As discussed in Section 3.2.5, schoepite together with iron corrosion products dominates the composition of the alteration products from time periods of 500 years and beyond. Schoepite July 2004 3-16 No. 7: In-Package Environment dissolves at pH values below about 5.5 to consume protons and at pH values above about 7 to produce protons (Equations 3-1 to 3-2). These two reactions constitute a negative feedback that will constrain pH at 5.5 to 7.5. As Figure 3-3 shows, HLW glass reaction by itself could lead to pH values from 8 to 10. For such high pH values to develop, it would require an unlikely scenario in which water reacts with the glass without also reacting with schoepite inside the waste package. Thus, a “HLW glass only, no steel, no fuel” scenario that produces high pH values is highly unlikely to occur. The most reasonable high-end pH for waste packages containing HLW glass is therefore 6.5 to 7. 3.5 IMPLEMENTATION FOR NOMINAL AND SEISMIC SCENARIOS 3.5.1 Abstraction of pH 3.5.1.1 Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel Waste Package pH Abstraction During the period when surface complexation is implemented (0 to 600 years) and based on the results of the surface complexation analyses, the pH for a commercial SNF waste package for both the nondripping and the dripping models is constrained by the ranges defined as a function of the fugacity of carbon dioxide gas, as shown in Table 3-5. The minimum pH value, pH 4.5, was set based on a simulation at 90°C, indicating that at times greater than 600 years the pH stabilizes around 4.5. This simulation is shown in Figure 3-5 and represents a minimum pH based on the EQ6 results that do not include surface complexation to account for the possibility of localized areas of low pH due to the potential of heterogeneous flow through the waste package internals. The maximum pH values for the 0-to-600-year period are calculated from Equation 3-13. Table 3-5. Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel Lookup Table of pH as a Function of Carbon Dioxide Fugacity Period (years) 0 to 600 minimum pH 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 log(fCO2) -5.0 -4.5 -4.0 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 N/A 600 to 20,000 Source: BSC 2004b, Table 66; DTN: MO0404SPAIPCHM.005. 3-17 No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 maximum pH 8.1 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.7 7.5 7.3 7.0 7.0 July 2004 Revision 1 Source: BSC 2004b, Figure 24. NOTE: C22C25 = 1.5-L/yr seepage dripping conditions, 10% fuel exposure, and calcium pore water at 25°C Figure 3-5. Effect of Increasing Temperature on the pH Profile for Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel Waste Package During the period from 600 to 20,000 years, the minimum pH is set by the high temperature results shown in Figure 3-5 and the maximum by the 50-L/yr results shown in Figure 3-6. These values provide the maximum plausible range of pH. For implementation in TSPA, the 0- to 600-year pH distributions are set using the minimum and maximum pH values (Table 3-5) for each log(fCO2). Values for the latter are taken from the EBS physical and chemical environment model (BSC 2004h). Each distribution is uniform, and pHs for intermediate values of log(fCO2) are linearly interpolated between nearest neighbor values. No uncertainty term is added to the sampled value. The abstracted pH values are independent of both time and temperature, and are not correlated to the pH in codisposal waste packages. For the period from 600 to 20,000 years the pH should be uniformly sampled between pH 4.5 and pH 7 with no additional uncertainty term added. There is no correlation between this pH abstraction and that for codisposal waste packages. July 2004 3-18 No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 Source: BSC 2004c, Figure 20. NOTE: Cases run using calcium–pore water, 10% fuel exposure, at 25°C. 2 3.5.1.2 Codisposal Waste Package Abstractions The abstraction for pH inside a failed codisposal waste package, for both the dripping and nondripping models, is given in Table 3-6, and the basis for the minimum and maximum values are as follows. When the water flux is less than 150 L/yr per waste package, the maximum pH inside a codisposal waste package will not exceed 7 independent of temperature and CO fugacity due to a variety of buffering reactions, for example, schoepite dissolution (BSC 2004b, Section 6.8.2). For water flux values greater than 150 L/yr per waste package, the maximum pH is 8 (BSC 2004b, Figure 22). The lower pH bound, pH = 4.5, was set by the high temperature analysis for both flux conditions (BSC 2004b, Figure 25). For the purposes of implementation in TSPA, a uniform sampling of the ranges given in Table 3-6 with no additional uncertainty will capture the proper pH behavior for nondripping and seepage dripping scenarios in a codisposal waste package. Table 3-6. Codisposal pH Abstraction Period (years) 0 to 20,000 Maximum pH 7.0 Minimum pH 4.5 Flux Condition (L/yr per waste package) Q<150 8.0 4.5 Source: BSC 2004b, Table 67. Figure 3-6. Effect of Water Flux on pH for a Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel Waste Package July 2004 Q>150 3-19 No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 3.5.2 Ionic Strength Abstraction The ionic strength results predicted using the EQ6 model were based on layer thickness values adjusted to avoid exceeding the ionic strength limit of the aqueous model. Thus, the ionic strength boundary condition was set by the model itself. Ionic strength data are used by the colloid submodel to determine if the colloid stability threshold, 0.05 mol/kg ionic strength, has been exceeded. This threshold value is much below the upper limits of the aqueous model (not less than 1 mol/kg) so that use of the higher EQ6 calculated ionic strengths is acceptable. The ionic strengths predicted by EQ6 may be high because the underlying calculations do not account for removal of dissolved salts from solution by corrosion product sorption. However, the inability to predict the identities and abundances (hence site densities) of the corrosion products over long periods of time prevents estimation of the magnitude of this effect. For example, complete conversion of corrosion products to low site density hematite over time would minimize any change in the ionic strengths predicted by EQ6. The possibility of ionic strength lowering by sorption reactions is dealt with by setting the uncertainty range to favor lower ionic strengths. (Eq. 3-14) 3.5.2.1 where Ionic Strength for Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel Waste Packages The ionic strength distribution for commercial SNF no-drip conditions is constrained from the ensemble calculations (BSC 2004b, Figure 28). In the TSPA-LA model, it is sampled from 0.085 to 0.75 mol/kg with a loguniform probability distribution function. A loguniform distribution is used to envelop calculated ionic strengths that themselves vary by orders of magnitude. The uncertainty in ionic strength described below should be added to the sampled value. For a seepage-dripping condition, the ionic strength is calculated as y = aeb log f y = ionic strength (mol/L) a = constant (unitless) b = constant (unitless) f = seepage flux (L/yr). The values of a and b used in Equation 3-14 were calculated from a curve-fitting procedure and are shown in Table 3-7, along with the appropriate temperature, flux limits, and regression coefficient for the curve fit. Values of ionic strength are either interpolated or linearly extrapolated from the 25°C and 50°C values to other temperatures from 25°C to 99°C (the limits of the in-package chemistry abstraction). As the seepage rate increases, the ionic strength inside the package will approach the values of initial waters. If the flux is less than the minimum, then the ionic strength should be evaluated using the lower flux limit. Likewise, if the flux is greater than the upper limit, then the ionic strength should be evaluated using the upper limit value. 3-20 July 2004 No. 7: In-Package Environment Table 3-7. Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel Seepage Dripping Model Ionic Strength Abstraction b (unitless) -2.1652 a (unitless) 0.4755 Temperature (°C) 25 -2.2424 0.4472 50 Flux Limits Per Waste Package (L/yr) Lower: 0.20 Upper: 185 Lower: 0.16 Upper: 145 Source: BSC 2004b, Tables 70 to 73. 3.5.2.2 Ionic Strength for Codisposal Waste Packages The ionic strength distribution for codisposal waste packages under no-drip conditions is constrained from the ensemble calculations (BSC 2004b, Figure 32). In the TSPA-LA model, it is sampled from 0.0032 to 0.75 mol/kg with a cumulative probability distribution shown in Table 3-8. The distribution in Table 3-8 is derived from the distribution of ionic strengths calculated in the reaction path runs. Table 3-8. Codisposal Waste Package No-Drip Model Ionic Strength Cumulative Distribution Time Period after Waste Package Breach (years) 0 to 20,000 Ionic Strength (mol/kg) 3.2 × 10-3 0.05 0.75 Source: BSC 2004b, Table 74. DTN: MO0404SPAIPCHM.005. For dripping conditions, the ionic strength is a function of seepage rate as shown in Equation 3-14, as it is for commercial SNF waste packages. The values of a and b used in Equation 3-14 were calculated from a curve-fitting procedure and are shown in Table 3-9, along with the appropriate temperature, flux limits, and regression coefficient for the curve fit. Values of ionic strength are either interpolated or extrapolated to other temperatures. For example, while 90°C values are not shown, they can be readily extrapolated from the 25°C and 50°C values. As the seepage rate increases, the ionic strength inside the package will approach the values of initial waters. If the flux is less than the minimum, then the ionic strength should be evaluated using the lower flux limit. Likewise, if the flux is greater than the upper limit, then the ionic strength should be evaluated using the upper limit value. Table 3-9. Codisposal Waste Package Seepage Dripping Model Ionic Strength Abstraction b -2.1306 a 0.5201 Temperature (°C) 25 0.4324 50 Flux Limits Per Waste Package (L/yr) Lower: 0.25 Upper: 180 Lower: 0.18 Upper: 180 Source: BSC 2004b, Tables 75 through 78. -2.1369 3-21 No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 R2 0.9979 0.9971 Probability 0.0 0.13 1.0 R2 0.9993 0.9993 July 2004 Revision 1 3.5.2.3 (Eq. 3-15) Uncertainty in Ionic Strength The variability of ionic strength is illustrated in Figure 3-7. For both the commercial SNF and codisposal waste package seepage-dripping models and no-dripping models at temperatures ranging from 25°C to 99°C (i.e., the temperature boundaries of the in-package chemistry abstraction) a uniformly sampled uncertainty value from the range of -0.8 to 0.4 multiplied by the sampled value is added to the sampled value. This range accounts for uncertainties in carbon dioxide levels as well as the possibility of lower ionic strengths as a result of surface complexation effects. Mathematically, the uncertainty for dripping and nondripping cases is implemented as follows: Ionic strength = ISsampled + (Uncertaintysampled × ISsampled) Source: DTN: MO0403SPAIPCHM.004. Figure 3-7. Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel Ionic Strength Profile with Error Bars NOTE: C22C25 represents commercial SNF, 1.5-L/yr water flux, calcium–pore water, 10% fuel exposure, at 25°C. July 2004 3.5.3 Abstraction of Carbonate and Fluoride Concentrations Total carbonate is used in the kinetic rate expression for the dissolution of commercial SNF; therefore, abstracted values are needed for the TSPA-LA model. In a system where the fugacity 3-22 No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 of carbon dioxide (fCO2) is constant over the modeled period and the pH and temperature are known, the total carbonate can be calculated using the equilibrium mass action expressions: Total C = fCO (Eq. 3-16) 2 (10K 1 + 10(pH + K 1 + K 2 ) + 10(2pH + K 1 + K 2 + K 3 )) where K1 = log K for CO2(g) . CO2(aq); K2 = log K for CO2(aq) . H+ + HCO3 .; and K3 = log K for HCO3 . . H+ + CO3 2.. The values of log K for the above reactions are shown in Table 3-10. Table 3-10. Log K Temperature Interpolation Functions for Use in the Total Carbonate Abstraction Log K Log K expressiona Log K 1 = 7 ~ 10.5T2 . 0.0159T . 1.1023 K 1 K 2 Log K 2 = 5 ~ 10.7T3 . 0.0002T2 + 0.0132T . 6.5804 R2 0.9992 1.0 0.9977 K 3 Log K 3 = .8 ~ 10.5T2 + 0.0128T . 10.618 Source: BSC 2004b, Table 86. DTN: MO0404SPAIPCHM.005. NOTE: aT = temperature in degrees Celsius The effect of fluoride concentration in the in-package solution is not a direct input parameter in TSPA-LA. However, actinide element solubilities are sensitive to fluoride concentrations so the ranges of fluoride concentrations were necessary in developing the dissolved concentration model (Section 6.2, below). Commercial SNF does not contain fluoride; therefore, the sole source of fluoride in commercial SNF waste packages is from the initial seepage waters, which is typically low. In contrast, the HLW contains a trace amount of fluoride, which will contribute the dissolved fluoride concentration. Based on the EQ3/6 simulations, the upper limit of fluoride concentration for codisposal waste packages can be as high as 0.011 mol/kg. 3.6 IMPLEMENTATION FOR IGNEOUS INTRUSION SCENARIO: POSTINTRUSIVE CHEMICAL ENVIRONMENT For an igneous intrusion scenario, waste packages in a drift intersected by intrusion will be completely damaged and encapsulated by basaltic magma, which will cool and solidify, forming a fractured basaltic rock. It is assumed that the postintrusive chemical environment will be dominated by the interaction of seepage water percolating through the rock fractures and the basaltic rock matrix. In this sense, the chemical environment discussed in this section is no longer in-package chemistry per se. The chemical interaction of seepage with the basalt is simulated with EQ3/6 for typical seepage water and basaltic rock compositions and flow rates (BSC 2004d, Section 6.5.3). The simulation results are summarized in Table 3-11. July 2004 3-23 No. 7: In-Package Environment Table 3-11. Value of pH and Ionic Strength for Use in the Igneous Intrusion Scenario log(fCO2) .2 bar .2.5 bar .3 bar .3.5 bar Time Period* x ¡Ü 25 years 25 > x ¡Ü 250 years 250 > x ¡Ü 2500 years 2500 > x ¡Ü 20000 years x ¡Ü 25 years 25 > x ¡Ü 250 years 250 > x ¡Ü 2500 years 2500 > x ¡Ü 20000 years x ¡Ü 25 years 25 > x ¡Ü 250 years 250 > x ¡Ü 2500 years 2500 > x ¡Ü 20000 years x ¡Ü 25 years 25 > x ¡Ü 250 years 250 > x ¡Ü 2500 years 2500 > x ¡Ü 20000 years x ¡Ü 25 years 25 > x ¡Ü 250 years 250 > x ¡Ü 2500 years 2500 > x ¡Ü 20000 years .4 bar Source: BSC 2004d, Table 8-2. NOTE: Time period represents time after re-establishment of seepage flow. Values archived in output DTN: MO0402SPAHWCIG.002. Maximum and minimum pHs were taken from individual EQ3/6 runs. It can be seen from Table 3-11 that the pH of the reacted seepage waters will be maintained at a neutral to mildly basic range and the ionic strength will remain less than 0.2 mol/kg. EQ3/6 simulations also show either no changes or decrease in dissolved fluoride concentration during seepage¨Cbasalt interactions. Therefore, for the TSPA implementation, the fluoride concentration, if needed, should be set to the initial seepage water concentration. 3.7 UNCERTAINTIES, LIMITATIONS, AND MODEL CONFIDENCE When water comes into contact with the materials inside a waste form, the reactions that ensue will be the same as, or very similar to, ones that occur naturally in soils and in other man-made materials. Reduced metals, metal oxides, and glass will dissolve and secondary corrosion products will form, all in the presence of ambient oxygen and carbon dioxide. In soils, the balance between proton production and consumption maintains the pHs to roughly neutral values. Only in highly unlikely scenarios do soil pHs fall below 4 (in essence, when high levels of reduced sulfur are present). Soil pHs exceed 8 to 9 only when the soil fluids are out of contact with the atmosphere and low carbon dioxide fugacities prevail. The in-package chemistry model faithfully reproduces these trends and limits. 3-24 No. 7: In-Package Environment pH Minimum 7.6 7.8 7.8 7.7 8.1 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.6 8.8 8.8 8.7 9.0 9.2 9.2 9.1 9.4 9.6 9.6 9.6 Maximum 7.9 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.4 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.1 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.5 9.7 9.9 9.9 9.9 Revision 1 Ionic Strength (mol/kg) Maximum 1.87 ¡Á 10.2 3.59 ¡Á 10.2 4.00 ¡Á 10.2 3.58 ¡Á 10.2 2.09 ¡Á 10.2 4.33 ¡Á 10.2 5.00 ¡Á 10.2 4.22 ¡Á 10.2 2.43 ¡Á 10.2 5.00 ¡Á 10.2 5.00 ¡Á 10.2 5.00 ¡Á 10.2 3.00 ¡Á 10.2 5.00 ¡Á 10.2 5.00 ¡Á 10.2 5.00 ¡Á 10.2 3.42 ¡Á 10.2 5.00 ¡Á 10.2 5.00 ¡Á 10.2 5.00 ¡Á 10.2 Minimum 9.64 ¡Á 10.3 1.23 ¡Á 10.2 1.22 ¡Á 10.2 1.15 ¡Á 10.2 9.23 ¡Á 10.3 1.31 ¡Á 10.2 1.29 ¡Á 10.2 1.18 ¡Á 10.2 9.14 ¡Á 10.3 1.40 ¡Á 10.2 1.37 ¡Á 10.2 1.19 ¡Á 10.2 9.44 ¡Á 10.3 1.67 ¡Á 10.2 1.62 ¡Á 10.2 1.30 ¡Á 10.2 1.02 ¡Á 10.3 1.97 ¡Á 10.2 1.89 ¡Á 10.2 1.43 ¡Á 10.2 July 2004 Revision 1 The in-package chemistry model combines two approaches to model uncertainty: (1) application of a factorial design approach to account for known large potential variations in model input (reactant combinations, water flux, fuel exposure, temperature, and seepage composition); and (2) sensitivity analysis of lesser known, not as well defined input variations (carbon dioxide fugacity, Carbon Steel Type A516 sulfur content, corrosion rates, extreme temperatures and flux values). Where the first approach provided the functional basis of the in-package chemistry model abstraction, the second approach provided the uncertainty ranges of the abstracted parameters. Thus, the information to be used in TSPA-LA directly incorporates uncertainty exterior to the in-package environment and interior to the in-package environment in a form that can be readily implemented in TSPA-LA (i.e., model uncertainty is propagated through the abstractions). Thus, the only restrictions on the subsequent use of the in-package chemistry model abstraction in TSPA-LA are that all of the abstractions must be applied within the stated limits (flux, temperature, fCO2, and fuel exposure) as specified in In-Package Chemistry Abstraction (BSC 2004b). The in-package chemistry model was validated in two parts. The general output of EQ3/6 was validated by comparison with field observations (BSC 2004b, Section 7). Specifically, the buffering capacity of the in-package environment was considered quantitatively and shown to be reasonable relative to similar natural cases. The reactions that cause long-term shifts from neutral pH in natural systems (e.g., acid generation from metal sulfide oxidation, alkalinity production by base silicate dissolution in the absence of atmospheric carbon dioxide) were shown to be absent in the in-package environment. The modeling of corrosion product surface chemistry was validated through expert review, which concurs that the surface effect approach is reasonable (BSC 2004b, Section 7). 3.8 SUMMARY Based on the modeling results presented in In-Package Chemistry Abstraction (BSC 2004b), in-package chemistry is insensitive to initial water composition, fCO2, decreased corrosion rate of the waste package alloys, and minor modifications to waste package design configuration. The major controlling factors include waste package type (commercial SNF versus codisposal waste package), water flux, fuel exposure (cladding failure) and temperature. The EQ3/6 calculations establish the range of in-package chemical compositions as dictated by dissolution and reprecipitation of solids. Effluent chemistries will be strongly affected by the presence of the surfaces of corrosion products (primarily iron oxides and hydroxides). Corrected for the effect of surface complexation on corrosion products, the in-package pH ranges from 4.5 to 8.1 for the nominal and seismic scenario classes. For the igneous intrusion scenario class, the pH is neutral to slightly basic (7.6 to 9.9). The ionic strength inside a waste package increases with time and can reach a value above 1 mol/L. Increasing temperature and carbon dioxide levels would favor decreased pH and vice versa. Higher temperatures cause a general shift in acid-base equilibria towards lower pHs. Carbon dioxide levels greater than ambient lower pH as well (both inside the waste form and in a basalt-dominated fluid). July 2004 3-25 No. 7: In-Package Environment INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK 3-26 No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 July 2004 Revision 1 4. COMMERCIAL SPENT NUCLEAR FUEL CLADDING DEGRADATION Most commercial SNF is encased in Zircaloy cladding. Therefore, degradation of commercial SNF considers degradation of the Zircaloy cladding, which can fail either before or after emplacement at the repository. The cladding degradation model is implemented in all three scenario classes, although in the igneous intrusion modeling case of the igneous scenario, the cladding in the impacted drifts is assumed to provide no protection for the fuel. Hence, the only aspect of the cladding degradation model implemented in the igneous intrusion modeling case is calculating the surface area available for radionuclide diffusion from the waste form to the corrosion products in the waste package. The fuel rod cladding contained in drifts that are not affected by an igneous intrusion event are treated as those in the nominal scenario. A small fraction (1.04%) of fuel rods is encased in stainless steel cladding rather than Zircaloy cladding. The cladding model for these fuel rods is bounding in that the cladding is assumed to split along the entire length of the fuel rod when the waste package fails. The relevant processes and assumptions supporting the cladding degradation model are presented below, followed by the cladding degradation model abstraction. A discussion of the sources of data, uncertainty, and model confidence building activities concludes this section. The primary sources of information for this section are Clad Degradation–Summary and Abstraction for LA (BSC 2003b), Clad Degradation–FEPs Screening Arguments (BSC 2004a), and Seismic Consequence Abstraction (BSC 2003c). July 2004 4.1 RELEVANT PROCESSES AND ASSUMPTIONS Zircaloy cladding degradation due to general corrosion, localized corrosion (radiolysis-enhanced, pitting, crevice, and fluoride-enhanced), the presence of dissolved silica, creep rupture, internal pressurization, mechanical impact, diffusion-controlled cavity growth, rockfall, electrochemical effects, chemical effects, thermal expansion or stress of in-package components, stress corrosion cracking, and hydride embrittlement is not expected for repository conditions (BSC 2004a, Table 1-1). Some Zircaloy cladding will degrade before disposal, and those fuel rods that have degraded cladding will split when contacted by water as a result of the increased volume of corrosion products. Because naval SNF is considered to be commercial SNF for modeling purposes, naval SNF cladding is assumed to be affected by the same processes (BSC 2004a, Table 1-1). The cladding degradation model consists of two phases: cladding failure (perforation) and the subsequent splitting of the cladding along the length of the fuel rod. The first phase, cladding perforation, is the formation of small cracks or holes in the cladding from various sources. In the absence of the cladding degradation mechanisms given above that are not expected for repository conditions, cladding perforations can occur (BSC 2003b, Section 5.2): 1. During reactor operation and subsequent storage (including other operations before being received at the repository) 2. In the repository by mechanical action resulting from seismic events that can occur at any time (i.e., the seismic scenario class) 4-1 No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 3. In the repository from static loading of rock overburden once the drip shield and waste package have failed after the 10,000-year regulatory period. In the nominal scenario, only the small fraction of Zircaloy cladding with preexisting defects (cause 1, above) is assumed to be perforated during the 10,000-year regulatory period. All stainless steel cladding is assumed to be perforated when the waste package fails. Perforation of cladding from seismic events (cause 2, above) is modeled exclusively in the seismic scenario class. Perforation of cladding from rockfall (cause 3, above) is part of the nominal scenario class but occurs after the 10,000-year regulatory period. Once the cladding has been perforated and the waste package containing the perforated cladding has failed, the cladding is assumed to immediately split along the length of the fuel rod, exposing the fuel to corrosion. This is the second phase of cladding degradation and is shown in Figure 4-1. Corrosion of the fuel occurs primarily along the cladding-fuel interface and along fractures within the fuel matrix. In this phase, corrosion of the fuel forms secondary mineral phases composed of higher oxides of UO2 (commonly called rind), causing the cladding split to widen further and creating a diffusion pathway for radionuclides and water. Perforation and splitting of cladding affects the diffusion of radionuclides from the rind into the corrosion products in the waste package. Figure 4-1. Fuel Rod Showing Cladding, Fractured Fuel, and Cladding Split 4-2 July 2004 No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 A small percentage (1.04%) of commercial SNF has stainless steel cladding instead of Zircaloy cladding. Stainless steel cladding was used in early core designs but is no longer used, so the quantity of stainless-steel-clad fuel is known and is unchanging. Stainless-steel-clad fuel rods are assumed to be perforated upon emplacement in the repository, making them immediately available for splitting lengthwise when the waste package fails (BSC 2003b, Section 6.2.2). It is assumed in this model that there is a finite probability that any delivery of fuel rods to the Yucca Mountain site containing stainless-steel-clad fuel rods will be loaded into two consecutive waste packages. This assumption is necessary because it addresses an absence of direct confirming evidence of how the waste packages are to be loaded. The basis of this assumption is that the stainless-steel-clad fuel is loaded into waste packages as it is received at the repository facilities to simplify surface facility operations. The model addresses the probability that for any stainless-steel-clad fuel delivery, the waste package being loaded could be near full and the remaining stainless-steel-clad fuel assemblies would then be loaded into a new waste package, increasing the number of waste packages containing stainless-steel-clad fuel assemblies. The shipments are not large enough to sequentially load three waste packages for a given delivery (BSC 2003b, Section 5.1). Naval SNF cladding is modeled as commercial SNF cladding. Naval SNF has been found to be more robust than commercial SNF. Using a naval SNF source term developed by the Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program, the DOE estimated that the dose resulting from naval SNF is about four orders of magnitude less than that from an equivalent amount of commercial SNF (BSC 2001, Section 6). A planned classified Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program Addendum to the LA will provide details of this naval SNF source term. Therefore, using commercial SNF as a surrogate for naval SNF will overestimate radionuclide releases from naval SNF. 4.2 MODEL FOR DEGRADATION OF CLADDING The model for degradation of commercial SNF cladding is presented in four parts: • Fraction of cladding that is defective prior to placement in the repository • Number of waste packages containing stainless steel cladding • Mechanical failure of cladding after placement in the repository • The area available for diffusion and volume of water available for UO2 corrosion after the cladding has split. The justification for the cladding degradation model used in TSPA-LA is based in large part on the exclusion of a number of processes considered unlikely to occur in the repository or to have an insignificant impact on repository performance. Some of the processes excluded from the cladding degradation model are general corrosion of cladding, localized corrosion from radiolysis, localized corrosion in pits and in crevices, creep rupture of cladding, stress corrosion cracking, and fluoride-enhanced localized corrosion of cladding. The basis for excluding these processes is given in Clad Degradation—FEPs Screening Arguments (BSC 2004a, Section 6). 4-3 July 2004 No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 4.2.1 Fraction of Cladding Perforated Prior to Placement in the Repository The percent of fuel rods with cladding that has perforations prior to placement in the repository is given by a loguniform distribution with a range of 0.01% to 1% and a median value of 0.1. The loguniform distribution was selected because it gives equal weight to each decade of the full distribution. This failure rate is based on an analysis of reactor historical data by S. Cohen & Associates (1999, p. 2-31). It also includes defects from wet and dry storage at reactor sites and from handling of the waste packages. The as-received perforated fuel rods are available to undergo clad splitting and fuel-pellet corrosion once the waste package fails. S. Cohen & Associates (1999, p. 2-31) concluded that damage of fuel during shipment, if any, will be minor. The rate of cladding perforation resulting from damage during handling at the repository surface facility is considered to be similar to that from damage during reactor operation and was estimated to be 0.0003% (S. Cohen & Associates 1999, p. 7-1) to 0.0005% (CRWMS M&O 2001a, Section 6.4.1). (Eq. 4-1) 4.2.2 Number of Waste Packages Containing Stainless-Steel Cladding The fraction of fuel rods that have stainless steel cladding is 1.04% of the total commercial SNF inventory. Fuel with stainless steel cladding is placed into waste packages as it arrives at the repository. Assuming that deliveries of fuel with stainless steel cladding can be placed into either a single waste package or two consecutive waste packages results in 3.5% to 7% (uniformly distributed) of the waste packages containing stainless-steel-clad fuel rods (see Section 4.3). The percentage of stainless-steel-clad rods in a waste package is calculated in Equation 4-1 as: % SS - clad rods in waste package = (100% × 1.04%) clad fuel rods containing SS - % of waste packages Thus, waste packages containing stainless-steel-clad fuel rods will contain 15% to 30% stainless-steel-clad fuel rods, which are modeled as perforated and available for instantaneous splitting when the waste package fails. 4.2.3 Mechanical Failure of Cladding after Placement in the Repository Once the fuel has been emplaced in the repository, intact cladding can be perforated as a result of seismic events that are modeled exclusively in the seismic scenario class (vibratory ground motion, fault displacement, and rockfall induced by ground motion) or as a result of the static load of a rock overburden. These two causes of mechanical failure are discussed below. Seismic Events–The seismic events representing the seismic scenario class can occur at any time, and the effects of seismic activity on cladding integrity are developed and analyzed in Seismic Consequence Abstraction (BSC 2003c). Seismic events can damage fuel cladding in two ways: damage to the cladding from end-to-end impacts between adjacent waste packages and damage to the cladding from fault displacement. The end-to-end impact between two adjacent waste packages accounts for 87% of the mean damage to the waste package at the 10-6 per year ground motion level and 92% of the mean damage to the waste package at the 10-7 per 4-4 July 2004 No. 7: In-Package Environment Revision 1 year ground motion level (BSC 2003c, Section 6.5.1.2). These results imply that the end-to-end impact of adjacent waste packages produces much more severe forces and accelerations than the side-on impact between a waste package and the emplacement pallet or drip shield. In terms of peak ground velocity, the abstraction for damage to the cladding during a seismic event is a simple lookup table with a linear interpolation between the two points in Table 4-1, which shows that cladding is assumed to be 100% damaged if the peak ground velocity exceeds 1.067 m/s. The peak ground velocity values of 0.55 and 1.067 m/s correspond to mean annual exceedance frequencies of seismic events of 5 × 10-5 per year and 10-5 per year, respectively. There is no uncertainty in this abstraction because it represents a bounding estimate for cladding response at all values of peak ground velocity. Table 4-1. Abstraction for Damage to the Cladding from Vibratory Ground Motion Damage to Cladding (%) 0