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The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. Documentation of Program Change INTRODUCTION The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) disposal regulations, during this reporting period (FY 2001), are contained in 10 CFR 60. The regulations in 10 CFR 60.21(b)(5) required that a repository license application must contain a description of site characterization work actually conducted by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and an explanation of why such work differed from activities described in the Site Characterization Plan: Yucca Mountain Site, Nevada Research and Development Area (SCP) (DOE 1988). The Documentation of Program Change (DPC) is revised annually to update and document these changes. The NRC recently promulgated its final rule on the Disposal of High-Level Radioactive Wastes in a Geologic Repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, as 10 CFR 63 (66 FR 55732). This new rule (10 CFR 63.21(b)(5)) retains the requirement that a repository license application contain a description of site characterization work conducted, but no longer requires a comparison with the original SCP (DOE 1988). Nevertheless, the decision was made by the DOE to prepare Revision 04 of the DPC. The scope of and need for future revisions of the DPC are currently being re-evaluated since 10 CFR 63 became effective on December 3, 2001. Also, the DOE promulgated its final rule on Yucca Mountain Site Suitability Guidelines as 10 CFR 963 (66 FR 57298), and the EPA promulgated its final rule on the Public Health and Environmental Radiation Protection Standards for Yucca Mountain, Nevada, as 40 CFR 197 (66 FR 32074)1. The SCP (DOE 1988) was developed in accordance with the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982 (NWPA), as amended, and has been the basis for the site characterization phase of the geologic repository program. In 1989, the DOE assessed the progress and needs of the repository program and established a schedule that would result in a suitability determination for Yucca Mountain in fiscal year (FY) 2001, and if the site is suitable and a license granted, would result in start of disposal operations in FY 2010. In parallel with the DOE assessment, the approach to underground characterization changed as vertical shaft and drift accesses were replaced by inclined ramps and drifts. From 1989 to 1994, the DOE planned for and then conducted a comprehensive program of site investigations based on the SCP. By 1994, external and internal factors had tended to broaden, rather than focus the program; Congress had also begun to express concern about continuing growth in the estimated cost of site characterization. Furthermore, because the site characterization schedule did not call for definitive results until a license application was completed in 2001, progress was difficult to demonstrate or measure. Thus in 1994, the DOE issued a revised Civilian Radioactive Waste Management Program Plan (Program Plan) (DOE 1994a) that was designed to show early observable progress with the financial resources likely to be available. The program needed to be restructured, reorganized, and replanned in a manner that was simpler, more visible, and understandable to management and external oversight, and more flexible to respond to future changes. Increasing scientific understanding, along with periodic total system performance assessment calculations, enabled focusing the ongoing site characterization program on the remaining uncertainties that are significant to the design, operation, and safe performance of the potential repository. The previous approach to site characterization called for extensive testing to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the Yucca Mountain site to allow decisions to be made simultaneously on site suitability, licensing, and repository design issues. Within the overall site technical program, the new approach distinguished among tests required to evaluate site suitability, to support licensing and define a cost-effective design, and to confirm the safety of the repository before closure. This distinction permitted phasing of tests to achieve an earlier evaluation of whether Yucca Mountain appeared to be suitable and preserves the schedule for licensing, constructing, and operating the repository if the site were found suitable. It also accommodates available resources. As a result, a new, more flexible approach was developed, and site investigations were phased in such a manner that some of the original planned tests could be de-emphasized and others could be shifted to confirmatory status. Previous progress reports have reported these changes as they affected study plans, design activities, and performance assessment plans. The Civilian Radioactive Waste Management Program (Program) intends to continue evaluations and adjustments of work scopes as information needs evolve. Congress endorsed the 1994 Program Plan (DOE 1994a) and provided a 37 percent increase in funding for FY 1995; subsequently, important progress was made. However, guidance from Congress and a significant funding reduction in FY 1996 required another revision to the Program Plan, which was issued in May 1996 (DOE 1996a). Under the funding reductions, the 1994 Program Plan was no longer sustainable. The Project was refocused to emphasize core scientific activity, which had continued to develop site characterization data and models throughout this period; excavation of sections of the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) necessary for scientific study; and completion of the repository and waste package conceptual designs. Activities supporting the preparation and filing of a license application for the repository were deferred. In FY 1997, the program was further focused on a 1998 assessment of the viability of geologic disposal at Yucca Mountain. The NWPA, as amended, requires the Secretary of Energy to determine the suitability of the Yucca Mountain site as a nuclear waste repository and, if the determination is positive, forward a recommendation regarding siting of the potential repository to the President. Reflecting these top-level program redirections in detailed annual and long-range plans was a major task during FY 1996. With a baselined program in place at the beginning of FY 1997, documenting changes from the original plans presented in the SCP (DOE 1988) was a priority. Through the production of the 16th semiannual Site Characterization Progress Report: Yucca Mountain, Nevada (DOE 1997a), progress reports provided links from the SCP to the requirements or planning documents that provide the basis for ongoing programs and have also documented changes to the site study and activity structure in the SCP. The DPC, previously an appendix to the progress report and separated in 1998 as a stand-alone document, is intended to continue that documentation process by providing a status and rationale for changes in the design and performance assessment programs. Most changes to the program will be found in the approaches to, amount of, and sequencing of field data collection activities. While there have been noticeable changes to the repository and waste package design concepts since the Site Characterization Plan Conceptual Design Report (SNL 1987), there has not been a correspondingly large number of substantial changes in the technical information needed to design the repository and waste package. The most significant change to the original conceptual design plans described in the SCP (DOE 1988) is the waste package. That waste package was a thin-walled container designed to be emplaced in boreholes; current plans have shifted to a large, multi-barrier waste package that will be emplaced in large drifts. A number of changes in the waste package design program are linked to this change. Similarly, as additional information about the geotechnical character of the site has become better understood, and as system studies have examined alternative approaches to address 10 CFR 60 requirements, the repository design concept has evolved to be responsive to this information. For example, the SCP (DOE 1988) conceptual repository design (SNL 1987) was interfaced with the ESF design that used vertical shafts for access. Current repository designs are integrated with the drift-based testing approach that has been used for the ESF. These changes to the current repository design, while appearing to be substantially different from the conceptual design that served as the basis for the SCP, have resulted in few substantive changes in the definition of the technical information needed to design the repository. While maturation in the understanding of constraints and design solutions has resulted in designs that are more responsive to 10 CFR 60 requirements, there has not been a concomitant large number of significant changes in the approaches embodied in the issue resolution strategies developed to address these regulatory requirements. For performance assessment, changes in the regulatory framework together with new site and design information have increased our knowledge base so that improved approaches can be defined. Many of these improved approaches have been discussed with NRC staff during technical interactions or summarized in previous progress reports. This report is a continuation of documentation begun in Progress Report #15 (DOE 1997b), extended in Progress Report #16 (DOE 1997a), and produced separately in 1998 as Documentation of Program Change, Revision 00 (CRWMS M&O 1998a); in 1999 as Documentation of Program Change, Revision 01 (CRWMS M&O 1999f); in 2000 as Documentation of Program Change, Revision 02 (CRWMS M&O 2000a); and in 2001 as Documentation of Program Change, Revision 03 (CRWMS M&O 2001c). The DPC provides a systematic review and documents the changes since the SCP (DOE 1988) was issued at a level of detail commensurate with the current planning basis. Following this introduction, the changes in site investigations, repository design, waste package design, and performance assessment are discussed in turn. The discussions first outline the background leading to the changes and then provide the current status for each study. Progress Report #15 (DOE 1997b) summarized changes in the program since the issuance of the SCP (DOE 1988). Additional detailed documentation of the rationale and justification for changes was provided in Progress Report #16 (DOE 1997a). Revision 00 of the DPC (CRWMS M&O 1998a) provided an update of information for April 1, 1997, through September 30, 1997. Revision 01 of this document (CRWMS M&O 1999f) provided an update of information from October 1, 1997, through September 30, 1998. Revision 02 of this document (CRWMS M&O 2000a) provided an update of information from October 1, 1998, through September 30, 1999. Revision 03 of the DPC (CRWMS M&O 2001c) provided an update of information from October 1, 1999, through September 30, 2000. This revision (Revision 04) provides an update of information from October 1, 2000, through September 30, 2001. As part of the ongoing annual and long-range planning efforts, work plans are evaluated to ensure that the scope and schedule for activities will support the major milestones of the Program. Annual updates to the DPC reports will provide rationale and justification for changes to the program as performance and design information matures. Ultimately, the adequacy of the revised site characterization program will be judged on the basis of whether sufficient scientific and engineering information has been developed at each stage of the program to provide the technical basis necessary to support a decision on whether to continue the program. 1. SITE PROGRAMS (SCP SECTION 8.3.1) The Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982 and the high-level radioactive waste disposal regulations found in 10 CFR 60, specified that the DOE develop a Site Characterization Plan (SCP) (DOE 1988) before beginning any activities to characterize potential repository sites. In addition, the disposal regulations specified that any potential license application will contain a description of changes to the site characterization program since the SCP was issued. This requirement in 10 CFR 60.18(g) was the basis for the development of the Documentation of Program Change documents. After the end of the reporting period for Revision 04 of this DPC, the NRC issued new disposal regulations (10 CFR 63) specific to the Yucca Mountain site (66 FR 55732), which no longer require a comparison with the original SCP. The SCP (DOE 1988) presented the initial general plan for the Yucca Mountain site and was based on then-available information about the site, and on then-current conceptual designs for the repository and the waste package. The SCP was intended to provide the framework for all the site programs, but it was also intended to provide program flexibility. The framework was to be augmented by study plans that were to be developed for each study and were intended to supply site-specific requirements for each study. These plans were intended to describe the specific objectives of each study, specify the approaches and methods to be used to collect data, describe the accuracy and precision requirements for the data, and identify the uses for which the data were needed. The SCP (DOE 1988) envisioned an extensive program of data collection designed to characterize the natural features and processes of the site, and reduce, or at least bound, the uncertainties associated with the various characterization parameters. At the outset, the DOE recognized that it was initially committing to conduct a very large number of studies and that many of them would later be shown to be redundant or possibly unnecessary. Thus, the SCP contemplated periodic revisions as the site characterization program matured. The purpose of the program was originally to provide the scientific data needed to support the evaluation of site suitability and develop the license application for construction authorization. As discussed in the introduction to this document, although the original purpose of the Project has been maintained, the Project was refocused to emphasize core scientific studies and excavation of those parts of the ESF needed for in situ scientific studies. With completion of the ESF, the revised program strategy was designed to maintain momentum in scientific investigations, provide data needed to support the Viability Assessment, the site suitability recommendation to the President, and submittal of a license application to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. In planning the program described in the SCP (DOE 1988), the DOE adopted an approach that began with identifying the regulatory requirements that must be satisfied in siting and licensing the repository, identifying the performance and design information needed to address those requirements, and developing specific investigations to obtain the needed information. This approach was embodied in an issue resolution strategy, which was discussed in some detail in Section 8.1 of the SCP. An important part of this strategy was an issues hierarchy (discussed in Section 8.1.1 of the SCP and in the DOE Mission Plan (DOE 1985) that consisted of key issues, related issues, and information needs. The key issues and related issues were based on the requirements in the disposal regulations. The information needs defined the data and analytical techniques that were needed to resolve each issue. The issues hierarchy stated questions about the performance of the disposal system and identified the information that would be required before a site could be selected and licensed. The issues hierarchy was developed as a three-tiered framework consisting of key issues, related issues, and information needs. On the highest tier were four key issues that embodied the principal requirements established by the regulations governing geologic disposal. Each of the key issues was expanded, in the next tier, into a group of related issues that elaborated on the requirements stated in the parent key issue. The lowest tier consisted of still more detailed sets of requirements called “information needs” that were associated with each issue. This framework provided a convenient means to distinguish broad questions of overall performance and suitability (key issues) from more specific questions about the characteristics of the site, the design of the repository and the waste package, and the performance of the total geologic disposal system. The framework also distinguished the key issues and related issues from the requirements for basic information needed to resolve the issues. The investigations for the site characterization program have evolved based on the technical information obtained from laboratory and field studies, model development and data application activities. Rapidly increasing scientific understanding, along with periodic total system performance assessment (TSPA), have enabled focusing the ongoing site characterization program on the remaining uncertainties that are significant to the design, operation and safe performance of the potential repository. Re-evaluation and prioritization of Project needs has been a continuous process based on scientific judgment and resource availability, governed by scientific criteria to ensure that data needed for site description, performance assessment, and design purposes were collected and analyzed. Data-collection that is redundant or no longer relevant has been eliminated. The data-collection needs have been further analyzed and refined as additional knowledge has been gained through years of site characterization activities and analysis of site data. In addition, major technical revisions to the repository program, including reconfiguration of the ESF from a shaft-and-main configuration to a ramp-and-main configuration, mechanical excavation of the ESF using a large diameter tunnel boring machine, and reconfiguration of the repository from vertical borehole emplacement to in-drift emplacement, required major revisions to the site programs. The ramp-and-main configuration provided increased opportunities for observation of changes in stratigraphic, lithologic, and structural characteristics of the host rock. As a result, the strategy and methods for in situ mapping of fracture networks, faults, and lithostratigraphic features have changed considerably. Most notable of these changes has been the acquisition of a large volume of data collected through detailed mapping of the ESF and the East-West Cross Drift. Some questions about geohydrologic features and processes, inferred from the results of surface-based tests, could be answered by direct observation. Because of the increased opportunities for direct underground observation and sampling, it was possible to reduce the scope of some surface-based testing activities. Section 1 of this report is organized by individual site characterization programs. For each program, background and SCP plans are summarized by study within each investigation. Subsequently, changes that have occurred, the basis for the changes, and the current status of each study are described. 1.1 GEOHYDROLOGY PROGRAM (SCP SECTION 8.3.1.2) The geohydrology program was developed to provide an understanding of the groundwater environment that is essential to assessing the viability and suitability of the site. Groundwater is expected to be the major transport medium of radionuclides to the accessible environment. The general SCP strategy to accomplish the geohydrology program was to conduct investigations that would result in complete and accurate descriptions of the pertinent components of the hydrologic system. The descriptions would reflect understanding of the hydrologic properties, initial and boundary conditions and processes, and their interrelationships. The results of the geohydrology program were to be combined with the results of other site programs to produce a site model, or a complete description of the site. The geohydrology program consisted of the data collection and evaluation activities that were to result in hydrologic models that describe two distinct regimes of the hydrologic system: the unsaturated zone and the saturated zone. Each of these regimes was to be characterized to provide input to the hydrologic models. The unsaturated zone hydrologic model was to be developed only at the site scale, whereas the saturated zone models were to be developed at both site and regional scales. The hydrologic regimes described by these models were to be those that significantly affect the resolution of hydrologic-related design and performance issues; these regimes, therefore, were to be the principal subjects of investigation in the geohydrology program. The investigations included in the geohydrology program are summarized in the following sections. 1.1.1 Studies to Provide a Description of the Regional Hydrologic System (SCP Investigation 8.3.1.2.1) Background and SCP Plans. The objectives of this investigation were to develop a conceptual model of the regional hydrologic system to help assess the ability of the site to contain and isolate waste; and to construct a consistent, regional, numerical model of groundwater flow, so that reliable boundary conditions could be assigned to the more critical site area embedded within the regional model. This investigation included four studies developed to accomplish the following: 1. Study 8.3.1.2.1.1 (characterization of meteorology for regional hydrology): This study was to: ? Characterize precipitation in the area surrounding Yucca Mountain and its relationship to surface run off, with particular emphasis on the Fortymile Wash drainage basin ? Provide site-specific information on storm precipitation at and near the network streamflow-measurement sites as input to precipitation-run off models and to infiltration studies. 2. Study 8.3.1.2.1.2 (characterization of run off and streamflow): This study was to: ? Collect data on the characteristics, magnitudes, frequencies, and timing of surface-water run off at, and peripheral to, Yucca Mountain ? Develop an understanding of the relationships between specific run off events and the characteristics of the storms ? Provide calibration data for precipitation-run off models for the regional study area; ? Provide data and interpretations of surface-water run off for evaluations of the amounts and processes of groundwater recharge ? Document both quantitatively and qualitatively the characteristics of debris transported by intense surface run off and assess the potential for flood hazards and related fluvial-debris hazards. 3. Study 8.3.1.2.1.3 (characterization of the regional groundwater flow system): This study was to: ? Prioritize data needs for use in the regional groundwater flow description ? Determine the regional potentiometric distribution, including the cause of the large hydraulic gradient ? Characterize the regional hydrogeologic framework to support reliable estimates of groundwater flow direction and magnitude ? Use hydrologic, hydrochemical, and heat-flow data to determine the magnitude and direction of groundwater flow ? Determine to what extent (quantitatively, if feasible) Fortymile Wash has been a source of recharge to the saturated zone under present and past conditions ? Improve estimates of groundwater discharge by evapotranspiration in the Amargosa Desert to provide boundary-condition data for regional groundwater flow models. 4. Study 8.3.1.2.1.4 (regional hydrologic system synthesis and modeling): This study was to: ? Synthesize available data and identify groundwater flow system boundaries, hydrogeologic units, structural controls, and other hydrogeologic features pertaining to the regional groundwater flow system ? Update an existing two-dimensional, subregional, parameter-estimation mode ? Perform subregional, two-dimensional cross-sectional modeling to estimate groundwater flow direction and magnitude along a potential flow path through the repository block to the accessible environment and extending into the region ? Develop a comprehensive, regional, three-dimensional numerical groundwater flow model ? Use the regional model to test the impacts of possible future tectonic activity and climatic changes on the saturated hydrologic system. Changes and Status. The primary objectives of this investigation have not changed since the SCP (DOE 1988) was issued. The SCP, however, described a more extensive program of data collection. The studies for this investigation have evolved based on technical information obtained from laboratory and field studies, model development and data application activities of the site characterization program. Rapidly increasing scientific understanding, along with periodic TSPA, have enabled focusing the ongoing site characterization program on the remaining uncertainties that are significant to the design, operation and safe performance of the potential repository. Re-evaluation and prioritization of Project needs has been a continuous process based on scientific judgment and resource availability, governed by scientific criteria to ensure that data needed for site description, performance assessment, and design purposes were collected and analyzed. Data-collection redundancy and overlap have been eliminated. The data collection needs have been further analyzed and refined as additional knowledge has been gained through site characterization activities. 1. In the meteorology study (8.3.1.2.1.1), rainfall run-off models were not developed because direct relationships between precipitation and both infiltration (Hudson and Flint 1996, p. 1; Flint et al. 1996, p. 1) and recharge (Hevesi and Flint 1995, p. 1; D’Agnese, Faunt et al. 1997, pp. 50–56) were developed for hydrologic models using methods that did not require simulation of the run off component. Also, because run off occurs so infrequently, it was determined to be infeasible to maintain readiness for run off monitoring with available Project resources. Instead, the emphasis of the meteorology study was focused on analyzing regional and synoptic-scale weather patterns that impact infiltration at Yucca Mountain and on statistically analyzing the spatial variability of average annual precipitation as it relates to estimates of groundwater recharge for the regional saturated zone flow model. Meteorological data collection and analysis activities were focused on determining the seasonality, duration, intensity, and spatial variability of storms that produce net infiltration in the many small watersheds that compose the Yucca Mountain site area. To accomplish this, a network of full weather stations and tipping-bucket precipitation gauges was maintained through FY 1995 and then reduced in FY 1996 (CRWMS M&O 1995a, pp. 6.3-4 and 6.3-36; see also (Dixon 1996). Operation of a reduced-intensity, site-area, meteorological data-collection effort is continuing. The Radiological Environmental Programs Department operated the network during 1997 and 1998. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) resumed operating responsibility for the tipping- bucket precipitation-gauge portion of the network in 1999 (see Section 1.9.2, Changes and Status). In FY 2000, operation of the tipping-bucket precipitation-gauge network was assumed by the University of Nevada Las Vegas, Harry Reid Center under contract to DOE. The M&O Integrated Analysis & Management group (formerly Radiological & Environmental Programs Department) retained operation of four full meteorological stations plus a limited number of additional precipitation gauge sites. This arrangement continued during FY 2001. The DOE believes that the site-area data collection effort will be adequate to provide data needed for the site recommendation and license application. Whether additional precipitation data are needed was addressed, at least partially, by the sensitivity analyses performed as part of the Total System Performance Assessment-Viability Assessment (TSPA-VA) (DOE 1998a, Volume 3). The TSPA-VA did not treat precipitation as a separate parameter because precipitation is a major component of the net infiltration model, the results of which were used directly in the TSPA-VA. In general, the TSPA-VA results indicate that potential increases in confidence for net infiltration are related more to factors other than the distribution of present-day precipitation. These factors include: ? Transitions from one future climate state to another ? Mean annual temperature during future climate states ? Timing and duration of future climate states ? Development of a more quantitative basis for uncertainty in net infiltration ? Consideration of other aspects of future climates that would affect net infiltration (cloudiness, vegetation, surface water run off-run-on, and snow cover) ? Enhanced calibration of the net infiltration model using well-documented present- day analogs (DOE 1998a, Volume 3, Section 6.5.1.1). In the TSPA for Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) (CRWMS M&O 2000af), precipitation was treated the same as it was in the TSPA-VA in that it is represented in flow fields that consist of three infiltration cases (lower, mean, and upper) within each of the three climate states (present-day, monsoon, and glacial-transition) (DOE 2001a, Section 4.2.1.4.1). Uncertainties in net infiltration were evaluated in the Analysis of Infiltration Uncertainty (CRWMS M&O 2000ai), where precipitation was one of 12 uncertain parameters. 2. In the run off and streamflow study (8.3.1.2.1.2), regional-run off studies and data collection for precipitation-run off modeling were terminated before being fully implemented because the data were not needed for the regional groundwater-flow model (D’Agnese, Faunt et al. 1997, pp. 43–56). Regional groundwater modeling did not require run off data for model calibration because data describing a direct relationship between precipitation and groundwater recharge was used. In recent years, the emphasis of the streamflow study shifted to measuring the run off component of the water balance in small watersheds at Yucca Mountain in support of the unsaturated zone infiltration study (8.3.1.2.2.1) (Progress Report #9, Section 2.2.1.2 (DOE 1994b); Progress Report #13, Section 3.1.2 (DOE 1996b). However, because the net-infiltration component is so small compared with the run off component and because run off occurs so infrequently, this approach was abandoned after instrumenting only a few watersheds (Progress Report #14, Section 3.1.2 (DOE 1996c)). In FY 1998, four continuous-recording stream flow gauges on Split Wash and Pagany Wash were reactivated in anticipation of El Niño climatic conditions during the winter of 1997-1998 to provide data to validate and improve the coupled surface run off-infiltration module of the site-scale unsaturated zone flow model. El Niño produced several winter storms that produced significant run off in these and other washes at Yucca Mountain during February 1998. Run off data were collected at several sites. However, at the end of FY 1998, all Yucca Mountain streamflow measurement sites were deactivated. Because flooding and fluvial-debris transport were shown by the Preclosure Hydrology Program (8.3.1.16) to pose little or no threat to the ESF, the potential repository (YMP 1995a, pp. 2-6, 2-11), or surface facilities at Yucca Mountain, studies to document transport of debris by severe run off were terminated before being fully implemented. 3. In the regional groundwater system characterization study (8.3.1.2.1.3), the drilling program designed to resolve uncertainties in the regional potentiometric distribution (including the large hydraulic gradient) has not been implemented. In particular, a deep hole in the Amargosa Desert intended to establish geologic control and obtain potentiometric-head data for the Paleozoic carbonate aquifer was not drilled. Instead, data from sources outside the Project have been relied upon almost exclusively to characterize the regional hydrogeologic framework and the regional potentiometric surface for input to the three-dimensional, regional groundwater-flow model. Despite the almost exclusive use of outside data, the three-dimensional groundwater-flow model was successfully developed and calibrated (D’Agnese, Faunt et al. 1997, pp. 86–94). Recently, however, with support from the DOE Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Office (YMSCO), Nye County initiated a drilling and testing program in the saturated zone down-gradient from Yucca Mountain in the Amargosa Desert. This program, called the Nye County Early Warning Drilling Program (EWDP), involves drilling a series of shallow and deep boreholes to obtain aquifer parameters, perform hydraulic testing, and conduct long-term water-chemistry and water-level monitoring (Stellavato 1997). Fifteen shallow boreholes to depths of 1000 feet are intended to obtain aquifer parameters for the alluvial and upper tuff aquifers. Six holes, as much as 4000-feet deep, are intended to obtain hydraulic properties, geochemical, and water level information for the deep Paleozoic carbonate aquifer. The EWDP boreholes are also intended to obtain data on the long-term effects of repository development. Through FY 2001, most of the Nye County EWDP boreholes have been drilled, stratigraphic interpretations have been made, and hydraulic and tracer tests have been conducted in the alluvium. Although possible causes of the large hydraulic gradient have been identified through analyzing available geologic and geophysical data (Fridrich et al. 1994; Luckey et al. 1996, pp. 21–25) and through hydraulic testing in well USW G-2, the cause of this feature remains an unresolved issue (Luckey 1996, pp. 2 and 3). During FY 1997 and FY 1998, additional field work and data collection were performed at borehole USW WT-24 in an attempt to further understand and characterize the large hydraulic gradient. Drilling, water quality sampling, and testing of borehole USW WT-24, which is located within the large hydraulic gradient area north of the potential repository location, have confirmed that perched water exists on top of the Topopah Spring Tuff basal vitrophyre. Further, deepening of borehole USW WT-24 into the Prow Pass Tuff revealed a tentative water level that seems to be consistent with the large hydraulic gradient. Several alternate concepts for the large hydraulic gradient were considered during preliminary testing of the site-scale saturated zone flow model (Czarnecki et al. 1997, pp. 26–29), including: ? Faults containing low-permeability gouge ? Faults juxtaposing transmissive and non-transmissive rocks ? An extensive perched water body ? A highly permeable fault that drains water from the upper part of the aquifer. In early FY 2002, a revision to the saturated-zone water-level analysis/modeling report was prepared to incorporate data from borehole USW WT-24 and apply an alternate concept for development of a potentiometric-surface map for the area north of Yucca Mountain where the large hydraulic gradient is located (USGS 2001c, Section 1). This concept assumes that water levels in boreholes USW G-2 and UE-25 WT #6 represent perched conditions, and are not representative of the regional potentiometric surface. By not using the data from those two boreholes and incorporating water-level data from borehole USW WT-24, the large hydraulic gradient is reduced from about 0.11 to between 0.06 to 0.07, and the potentiometric contours are more widely spaced (USGS 2001c, Section 6.2). Furthermore, potentiometric contours are not offset where they cross faults, as would not be expected where the contours are perpendicular or nearly perpendicular to the fault trace To date, because of time constraints and technical limitations of the simulation code, only the low-permeability fault gouge concept has been tested with the model. Although reconnaissance-level studies have determined that groundwater recharge to the saturated zone occurs in upper Fortymile Wash (Savard 1996; Luckey 1996, pp. 3 and 4; Savard 1998), the field studies to quantify this recharge have not been conducted because they were determined to be of low priority (CRWMS M&O 1995a). Similarly, although evapotranspiration feasibility and prototype work was performed (Progress Report #11, Section 3.1.3 (DOE 1995a)), the field studies to improve estimates of groundwater discharge by evapotranspiration in the Amargosa Desert have not been conducted. Instead, estimates of regional groundwater recharge and discharge were improved using a modification of the Maxey-Eakin method. This method uses a geostatistically derived distribution of average annual precipitation and a regional distribution of recharge potential based on elevation, vegetation, slope-aspect, and rock and soils permeability data obtained using remote-sensing and Geographic Information System techniques (D’Agnese, Faunt et al. 1997, pp. 43–56). With this approach, the three-dimensional groundwater flow model has been successfully developed and calibrated. 4. In the regional hydrologic system synthesis and modeling study (8.3.1.2.1.4), updating of an existing two-dimensional, subregional, parameter-estimation model, developed in 1984, and two-dimensional cross-sectional modeling along a potential flow path have not been performed as separate activities. However, much of the work scope intended for these activities is being accomplished by the development and testing of the regional, three-dimensional groundwater flow model (Activity 8.3.1.2.1.4.4). The distribution of estimated values of hydraulic conductivity from parameter-estimation simulations of the model are regression estimates based on field data for the region (D’Agnese, Faunt et al. 1997, pp. 106–111), but the model still contains uncertainty. This is because field values of hydraulic conductivity range over two to three orders of magnitude for each rock type. Overall, the range of hydraulic conductivity values for the entire model is more than seven orders of magnitude. Furthermore, there are only about 20 potentiometric-level control points for the lowest layer of the model where most of the Paleozoic carbonate aquifer is represented. Model simulations indicate that the hydraulic conductivity of the Paleozoic carbonate aquifer controls important features of the large hydraulic gradient (D’Agnese, Faunt et al. 1997, p. 89). Also, model results indicate that flow in the Paleozoic carbonate aquifer has substantial influence on flow in the overlying volcanic rocks. Overall confidence in the simulation of the Paleozoic carbonate aquifer has been strengthened by good control on discharge from the aquifer through well-documented spring discharge data (D’Agnese, Faunt et al. 1997, p. 86). The overall regional saturated zone flow system in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain appears to be controlled by the deep Paleozoic carbonate aquifer. From a postclosure performance perspective, however, the overlying tuffaceous and alluvial aquifers are more significant because these would contain any likely travel paths for radionuclides moving between the potential repository and the accessible environment. In addition, any future use of groundwater in the region would likely concentrate on the shallower tuffaceous and alluvial aquifers rather than on the deeper, albeit more transmissive, carbonate aquifer. Results of the TSPA-VA indicated substantial uncertainty in the overall saturated zone flow system and the potential transport of radionuclides in the area between 10 km and 20 km down-gradient from the potential repository (DOE 1998a, Volume 3, Section 6.5.1.9), particularly where flow leaves the tuffaceous aquifer and enters the alluvial aquifer. Additional water level, hydrochemical, and hydraulic-characteristics data are needed in this area to reduce uncertainty with respect to groundwater flow paths and transport properties. These data needs are being met by studies being conducted as parts of the EWDP and at the Alluvial Testing Complex (see Section 1.1.3, Changes and Status, Item 1). A saturated zone flow and transport model abstraction and testing workshop was held April 1-3, 1997, in Denver, Colorado (CRWMS M&O 1997a). The purposes of the workshop were to develop a comprehensive list of issues related to key uncertainties about saturated zone flow and transport behavior, prioritize the list of issues based on impact to long-term performance of the potential repository, and develop analysis plans to aid in the resolution of high-priority issues and provide a basis for model abstraction in TSPA-VA (CRWMS M&O 1997a, Executive Summary, p. x). The categories of high-priority issues include conceptual models of saturated zone flow, conceptual models of saturated zone geology, transport processes and parameters, and coupling to other components of TSPA (CRWMS M&O 1997a, Table 1-1). Analysis of the high-priority issues is continuing. Although large-scale anisotropy has not been characterized by field tests, regional structural features (major faults and fault zones) have been included in the regional model to improve its performance (see Section 3.1.4 of Progress Report #15 (DOE 1997b) under Activity 8.3.1.2.1.4.4). In an effort to increase confidence in the regional saturated zone model, the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP) model is being integrated with other DOE-sponsored work in southern Nevada, including the Underground Testing Area groundwater flow model. The expanded and upgraded model is referred to as the Death Valley regional flow system. In addition, a new set of boreholes is being drilled by Nye County in the Amargosa Desert along U.S. Highway 95. These boreholes, which constitute the first phase of Nye County’s EWDP, are providing additional stratigraphic, water level, and hydrochemical data to reduce uncertainties in the regional flow model (see description of Changes and Status for Study 8.3.1.2.1.3.). Furthermore, Nye County's EWDP has additional phases that include constructing monitoring wells along Fortymile Wash and the Alluvial Testing Complex (see Figure 1-1 and description of Changes and Status for Study 8.3.1.2.3.1 in Section 1.1.3). More detailed information about the Nye County EWDP is available on the Internet at http://www.nyecounty.com. During FY 1998, regional groundwater modeling focused on refining the fluxes calculated by the model for use in the site- scale saturated zone flow model, incorporating more vertical detail in the area down- gradient from the potential repository, and improving estimates of discharge from regional springs and evapotranspiration areas. In FY 1999, Death Valley regional flow system modeling efforts emphasized geologic framework compilations, refinement of input data sets, refinement of recharge estimates based on simulated net infiltration, comprehensive evaluation of water-level depth-interval data, and model calibration and evaluation. In FY 2000 and 2001, a new regional hydrostructural map and the three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model were completed. In addition, three-dimensional, steady-state, numerical-model simulations of predevelopment conditions in the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system were conducted and documented. As of the end of FY 2001, no specific plans had been developed to use the Death Valley regional flow system model to simulate Quaternary or possible future climatic conditions. However, such plans are under consideration even though Quaternary and possible future climatic conditions have already been adequately simulated (D’Agnese, Faunt et al. 1997). Figure 1-1. Map Showing Locations of Nye County Early Warning Drilling Program Wells Another change in the regional groundwater modeling study was the conduct of simulations of the hydrologic effects of possible future climatic conditions, originally planned under SCP (DOE 1988) Study 8.3.1.5.2.2. The hydrologic effects of two sets of climatic conditions were simulated (D’Agnese, Faunt et al. 1997) using the existing regional groundwater flow model (D’Agnese, O’Brien et al. 1997). One simulation represented climatic conditions for 21,000 years ago, when glaciation was at a maximum. The other simulation represented a possible future climatic condition when atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentrations might be doubled. For the 21,000-years ago conditions, simulated water levels beneath the potential repository block were 60 m higher than present-day levels. Under the conditions of doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide, simulated water levels beneath Yucca Mountain were less than 50 m higher than present-day levels. 1.1.2 Studies to Provide a Description of the Unsaturated Zone Hydrologic System at the Site (SCP Investigation 8.3.1.2.2) Background and SCP Plans. The objective of this investigation was to develop a model of the unsaturated zone hydrologic system at Yucca Mountain that would help assess the suitability of the site to contain and isolate waste. Developing this model requires an understanding of the manner in which water and gases move through the unsaturated zone, including the directions, paths, and rates in which flow occurs. This information was to be provided through the characterization of infiltration, percolation, gaseous-phase movement, and hydrochemistry. Flow and transport modeling designed to simulate the natural system would provide sensitivity analyses to help prioritize additional data collection. This investigation includes nine studies. Of these, the first seven were data-collection studies; the last two were system-modeling studies. These studies were developed to accomplish the following: 1. Study 8.3.1.2.2.1 (characterization of unsaturated zone infiltration): This study was to: ? Characterize the infiltration-related hydrologic properties and conditions of the surficial soils and rocks covering Yucca Mountain ? Characterize present-day, natural infiltration processes and net-infiltration rates ? Characterize the range and spatial variability of infiltration rates, flow velocities, and flow pathways in the near-surface unconsolidated surficial material and consolidated bedrock, using double-ring infiltrometer and ponding studies (artificial infiltration activity) ? Characterize the relationship between precipitation, soil thickness, run off, infiltration, evapotranspiration, and development of perched water tables in the near-surface unconsolidated surficial material in each representative hydrogeologic surficial unit, using small-plot and large-plot rainfall simulation tests (artificial infiltration activity) ? Estimate the future spatial distribution of infiltration rate over the repository block. 2. Study 8.3.1.2.2.2 (water-movement tracer tests): This study was to characterize the percolation of precipitation into the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain, and the movement of water through the unsaturated zone, using chloride and chlorine-36 measurements. 3. Study 8.3.1.2.2.3 (characterization of percolation in the unsaturated zone– surface-based studies): This study was to: ? Characterize and statistically describe the flux-related, matrix hydrologic properties of major unsaturated zone hydrogeologic units and structural features as functions of moisture content or potential through laboratory testing of geologic samples obtained from surface-based boreholes and from the ESF ? Determine the present vertical and lateral variation of percolation flux through the hydrogeologic units and structural features by measuring the potential field and determining the in situ bulk permeability of the unsaturated media in vertical boreholes throughout the site ? Evaluate the hydrogeologic significance of fracturing, brecciation, and gouge development within the Solitario Canyon fault zone by drilling and testing a horizontal borehole ? Investigate the relationships between present flux and past climatic conditions. 4. Study 8.3.1.2.2.4 (characterization of percolation in the unsaturated zone–ESF studies): This study was to: ? Perform ESF hydrologic tests to supplement and complement the surface-based hydrologic information needed to characterize the Yucca Mountain site and to provide information for analyzing fluid flow and the potential for radionuclide transport through unsaturated tuff ? Combine the integrated results from the ESF hydrologic tests with data from the surface-based studies to provide an overall understanding of the unsaturated zone hydrologic system (ESF tests were designed to provide phenomenological information about water flow through unsaturated, fractured tuffs, in addition to providing basic hydrogeologic data) ? Conduct ten sets of hydrologic tests in the ESF: (1) Intact-fracture testing to evaluate fluid-flow and chemical-transport properties of single, relatively undisturbed fractures (2) Percolation testing to determine the hydrologic conditions that control the occurrence of fluid flow within fractures and matrix (3) Bulk-permeability testing to determine “representative” characteristics of fracture networks for model simulations at the scale at which the fractured host rock behaves as an equivalent porous medium (4) Radial-borehole testing to determine rock mass hydrologic properties (including bulk air permeability) and to detect vertical movement of liquid water and/or vapor within hydrogeologic units and along contacts (5) Excavation-effects testing to monitor changes to both the stress state and fractured rock permeability caused by excavating and lining the ESF and to calibrate a coupled hydraulic-mechanical model (6) Testing of the Calico Hills nonwelded hydrogeologic unit to determine hydrologic processes, conditions, and properties under both present and expected future conditions (7) Perched-water testing to detect any occurrence of perched-water zones, estimate hydraulic properties of the zones, and determine the implications of perched water on flux, flow paths, and travel times (8) Hydrochemistry testing to understand the gas transport processes; provide independent evidence of flow direction, flux, and travel time of gas and water; and determine the extent of water-rock interaction and the geochemical evolution of water (9) Multipurpose-borehole testing near the ESF to monitor potential interference of ESF construction with ESF tests, identify perched water, and confirm engineering and hydrogeologic properties of the rock before ESF construction (10) Testing of hydrologic properties and flow conditions of major faults encountered in the long drifts at the main test level of the ESF. 5. Study 8.3.1.2.2.5 (diffusion tests in the ESF): This study was to determine in situ the extent to which nonsorbing tracers diffuse into the water-filled pores of the tuffs of the Topopah Spring welded unit and the Calico Hills nonwelded unit in the ESF. 6. Study 8.3.1.2.2.6 (characterization of gaseous-phase movement in the unsaturated zone): This study was to: ? Describe the pre-waste emplacement gas-flow field and its effect on net water- vapor transport from the unsaturated zone ? Identify structural controls on gas-phase flow ? Determine conductive and dispersive properties of the unsaturated zone for gas flow to assess potential transport of gaseous radionuclides (e.g., carbon-14) ? Provide the parameters necessary for modeling gas flow ? Perform model simulations of gaseous flux of moisture affecting deep percolation and transport of tracers in the gas phase. 7. Study 8.3.1.2.2.7 (characterization of the unsaturated zone hydrochemistry): This study was to: ? Perform hydrochemical investigations to understand gas-transport mechanisms and provide evidence of gas-flow direction, flux and travel time within the unsaturated zone ? Design and implement methods for extracting pore fluids from the tuff ? Provide independent evidence of flow direction, flux, and travel time of water in the unsaturated zone ? Determine the extent of the water-rock interaction and model geochemical evolution of water in the unsaturated zone. 8. Study 8.3.1.2.2.8 (fluid flow in unsaturated, fractured rock): This study was to ? Develop and validate (through ESF testing) detailed conceptual and numerical models of fluid flow and transport within unsaturated, fractured rock ? Apply these models to volumes of fractured rock at or below the dimensions at which the rock can be replaced conceptually by an equivalent porous medium ? Use the models to help design and interpret hydrologic and pneumatic tests and provide information about model parameters that can be incorporated into site- scale models (Study 8.3.1.2.2.9). 9. Study 8.3.1.2.2.9 (site unsaturated zone modeling and synthesis): This study was to: ? Develop appropriate conceptual models for the site unsaturated zone hydrogeologic system ? Select, modify, or develop numerical hydrologic models capable of simulating the hydrogeologic system and its component subsystems ? Construct appropriate hydrologic models for the natural site hydrogeologic system to simulate and investigate the present state of the system and predict probable future and past states of the system under changes in the environmental conditions; ? Evaluate the accuracy and uncertainty of the models, using stochastic modeling, conventional statistical analyses, and sensitivity analyses ? Integrate data and analyses to synthesize a comprehensive, qualitative, and quantitative description of the site unsaturated zone hydrogeologic system under present as well as probable, or possible, future conditions. Changes and Status. The primary objectives of this investigation have not changed since the SCP was issued. The SCP (DOE 1988), however, described a more extensive program of data collection. The studies for this investigation have evolved based on technical information obtained from laboratory and field studies, model development and data application activities of the site characterization program. Rapidly increasing scientific understanding, along with periodic TSPA, have enabled focusing the ongoing site characterization program on the remaining uncertainties that are significant to the suitability of the potential repository site (DOE 1994a). Re-evaluation and prioritization of Project needs (DOE 1994a) has been a continuous process based on scientific judgment and resource availability, governed by scientific criteria to ensure that data needed for site description, performance assessment, and design purposes were collected and analyzed, and to eliminate data-collection redundancy and overlap that would result from completion of all the studies in the SCP (DOE 1988). The data-collection needs have been further analyzed and refined as additional knowledge has been gained through years of site characterization activities. This process has resulted in the following changes to the investigation. 1. In FY 1995, the unsaturated zone infiltration study (8.3.1.2.2.1) was reconfigured and accelerated (Progress Report #12, Section 3.1.5 (DOE 1995b)) in response to the site suitability initiative described in the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management Program Plan (DOE 1994a, Volume 1, pp. 18–21), which was implemented “to support a stepwise evaluation of the suitability or unsuitability of the Yucca Mountain site” (DOE 1994a, Volume 2, p. 15). Under the Program Plan, key evaluations were to be accelerated (compared to the SCP schedule) to focus more effectively on site suitability apart from all the considerations associated with the license application (DOE 1994a, Volume 1, p. 20). In support of the suitability initiative, a Technical Basis Report on geohydrology and transport was scheduled for completion in FY 1998, requiring completion of an intermediate, integrated geology-hydrology-geochemistry model in FY 1997 (DOE 1994a, Volume 2, Figure 2-3). Because the infiltration study was to develop the upper boundary condition for site-scale models of unsaturated zone flow and transport, the study had to be accelerated and reconfigured. As a result, the artificial-infiltration tests described in the SCP were deferred, even though their primary purpose was to validate the numerical infiltration model that has been developed. Consequently, although the numerical infiltration model is technically valid, it contains uncertainty with respect to important rock properties and processes at the alluvium-bedrock interface. The primary goal of the reconfigured study was to define the spatial and temporal distribution of moisture flux for the upper boundary condition for site-scale models of unsaturated zone groundwater flow and transport. In this context, the boundary condition was developed as a conceptual and numerical model using arid-land watershed processes. The model has provided a dynamic link between infiltration flux and known climatic variability, potential climatic trends, potential changes in the surface environment (such as loss of vegetation), and sporadic but extreme meteorological events. The integration of hydrologic-process models for the surface and near-surface environments with mapped surficial-material hydrologic properties and mapped present-day net infiltration rates (as measured in the neutron-access boreholes) has resulted in a stochastic-deterministic simulation of future upper-boundary conditions, including the probability and magnitude of potential fast pathways of net infiltration. A surficial-materials infiltration-properties map of the Yucca Mountain area showing the spatial distribution of eight statistically significant soil units was developed, but the field and laboratory measurements used to produce the map were reduced both in number and in scope from that envisioned in the SCP (DOE 1988) because of the prioritization and accelerated schedule for the infiltration study. The effects of the reduction on data representativeness and utility of the properties map have not yet been determined. Moisture monitoring in the network of neutron-access boreholes was discontinued at the end of FY 1995, after 10 years of monitoring, because sufficient data had been collected for this phase of the Program. A synthesis report was prepared in FY 1996 (Flint et al. 1996) using existing data to assess the current status of the study and to provide input for the Viability Assessment. A multiple linear regression model was developed to correlate annual shallow-infiltration estimates measured in 69 neutron-access boreholes to annual precipitation, depth to bedrock, and other hydrogeologic factors (Hudson and Flint 1996, p. 1), but the series of double-ring-infiltrometer and ponding studies intended to determine the range and spatial variability of infiltration rates (artificial infiltration), were not conducted. Similarly, although one detailed water-balance study of Split Wash was initiated to develop and calibrate the evapotranspiration component of the infiltration model, the number and scope of watershed-scale studies was reduced considerably. Further, the artificial infiltration control-plot studies were not implemented. These studies would have measured water-potential gradients in the shallow subsurface (<15 m) under ambient conditions to determine the direction of water flow and the extent to which barometric pumping might be removing water in the vapor phase from the system. Finally, although a numerical model was developed to simulate the interaction of processes that result in net infiltration, the small- and large-plot rainfall-simulation tests (artificial infiltration) were not conducted; these tests were intended to validate the model with respect to temporal and spatial distribution of infiltration under both current-climatic and wetter conditions. Specifically, these tests would have provided field data on rock properties and processes of the alluvium-bedrock interface to replace the available data that were collected from the alluvial surface and from deeper within the bedrock units. At present, the Project has no plans to collect these data on rock properties and processes at the alluvium-bedrock interface. One of the objectives of the artificial infiltration experiments described in the SCP (DOE 1988) was to approximate the increased infiltration that might result from potentially wetter climatic conditions in the future by simulating those conditions in the field. Even though the artificial infiltration experiments have not been conducted, monitoring of moisture flux in the neutron-access boreholes over the last 10 years has afforded an opportunity to observe a significant range of natural infiltration events. The termination of the neutron-moisture monitoring at the end of FY 1995 has precluded measurement of the subsurface redistribution of water that infiltrated during the larger storm events. Subsurface redistribution of water may require several years. Nonetheless, as a result of several El Niño winter storm events over the last few winters (especially 1992, 1993, and 1995), unusually large precipitation events have, in fact, occurred and have provided useful insights about the potential effects of wetter conditions on infiltration rates. These El Niño events are estimated to be analogous to the expected precipitation during global warming (due to increases in greenhouse gases) and possibly wetter pluvial periods in the future. Although monitoring the vertical moisture profiles immediately following these events provided direct, qualitative evidence of the increased infiltration, in the absence of quantitative information on water potentials and fracture-matrix interactions at the alluvium-bedrock interface, longer term direction of flow (up or down), and therefore net infiltration, is not known with certainty. In the TSPA-VA (DOE 1998a, Volume 3), uncertainties about individual components of the infiltration model were not analyzed. Instead, overall uncertainty about net infiltration was considered by running two performance-assessment simulations: one with three times and the second with one-third the distribution of infiltration used for the base case (DOE 1998a, Volume 3, Section 3.1.2.2). In general, the TSPA-VA results indicated that potential decreases in uncertainty for net infiltration are related to several factors including: ? Transitions from one future climate state to another ? Mean annual temperature during future climate states ? Timing and duration of future climate states ? Development of a more quantitative basis for uncertainty in net infiltration ? Consideration of other aspects of future climates that would affect net infiltration (cloudiness, vegetation, surface water run off-run on, and snow cover) ? Enhanced calibration of the net infiltration model using well-documented present- day analogs (DOE 1998a, Volume 3, Section 6.5.1.1). For the TSPA-SR, completed in December 2000, the infiltration model was enhanced (CRWMS 2000af). For example, uncertainty in estimated infiltration rates was addressed by simulating mean, lower-bound and upper-bound infiltration for the modern and two future climate states by using present-day analog climate sites. In addition, the Project is focusing on determining the resulting percolation at the repository level and the potential for the Paintbrush nonwelded (PTn) hydrogeologic unit to divert flow laterally above the repository (Progress Report #17 (DOE 1998b, Section 5.2). During FY 1997 through FY 1999, work focused on enhancing the numerical infiltration model to reduce the uncertainty in some of its components. Enhancements include development of a coupled net infiltration-surface-flow routing module, improved simulation of surface evaporation and root-zone transpiration, more accurate simulation of effective bedrock permeability, and inclusion of the effects of temperature in simulation of potential future climates. In FY 1999 and FY 2000, the infiltration model was revised and used to simulate present-day climate conditions and two possible future climate states: monsoonal and glacial transition (USGS 2001a). The revised climate scenarios for future climate were simulated with the infiltration model in order to realistically account for climate changes that are likely to occur during the next 10,000 years, which is the regulatory period for the potential repository. To facilitate the input of infiltration values into the TSPA model, uncertainties in net infiltration were evaluated further in AMR Analysis of Infiltration Uncertainty (CRWMS M&O 2000ai). 2. The water movement test study (8.3.1.2.2.2) was expanded considerably in scope and complexity from that outlined in the SCP (DOE 1988, pp. 8.3.1.2-179–8.3.1.2-181). The expanded scope was intended to provide corroboration of borehole data, which were initially interpreted as indicating that pore waters were on the order of hundreds of thousands of years old. Corroboration, if provided, was expected to support low-flux arguments. The SCP indicated that sampling of tuffs for chlorine-36 would focus primarily on obtaining a profile in what was then planned to be a vertical shaft ESF. Additional chlorine-36 measurements were to be performed on samples collected after a survey of Yucca Mountain to determine areas of active percolation. Since that time, the set of targets for sampling has expanded to include: ? Soil samples within the “perimeter-drift boundary” and from pits in Midway Valley ? Drill cuttings from the last set of neutron-access holes and deep systematic drilling, unsaturated zone and north ramp geologic boreholes ? Pore water extracted from cores of deep unsaturated zone and geologic boreholes in the ESF, East-West Cross Drift and Busted Butte Field Transport Facility ? Rain water and water from the bottom of neutron holes ? Perched water from several deep boreholes near the ESF ? Water samples from several deep saturated zone holes ? Water from springs and shallow wells in the Amargosa Valley and Death Valley ? Packrat middens (Progress Reports #6 through #15 (DOE 1992a, 1992b, 1993, 1994b, 1994c, 1995a, 1995b, 1996b, 1996c, and 1997b)). With reconfiguration of the ESF into the ramp and drift configuration, the number of samples from the ESF and Cross Drift has increased substantially through systematic sampling along these tunnels and their niches and alcoves, and sampling of exposed discrete structural features that are potential fast-transport paths (Fabryka-Martin et al. 1997, Section 6.4). The most significant aspect of this expanded sampling was finding elevated levels of chlorine-36 at several locations in the ESF and Cross Drift. These were attributed to the transport of bomb-pulse chlorine-36 to the sampled depths in less than 50 years. The locations at which these elevated signals occurred appeared to be associated with faults. The complexity of the study consequently increased by using the chlorine-36 method to investigate the spatial frequency of fracture flow, residence times of infiltrating water, and groundwater travel times. In addition, the chlorine-36 results have been used in connection with the site-scale unsaturated zone transport model to estimate percolation flux at the repository horizon, to establish bounds on the ranges of hydrologic parameter values used in the site-scale model, and to develop and evaluate alternative conceptual models of flow and transport at the site. The study has also given increasing attention to the implications of pore water chloride concentrations as a surrogate measure of infiltration rates and as another environmental tracer useful for calibrating numerical flow models of the unsaturated zone. For these reasons many of the samples selected for chlorine-36 analysis have also been analyzed for chloride contents. During FY 2000 and FY 2001, a chlorine-36 validation study was initiated and conducted because of concerns about possible contamination, representativeness of samples, lack of bomb-pulse chlorine-36 in the southern part of the ESF, and difficulties with replicating earlier analyses (DOE 2001c, Section 1.2.2). As a part of the validation study, additional samples have been collected from the ESF and analyzed for chlorine-36 and tritium. The validation study is expected to be completed during FY 2002. 3. The percolation in the unsaturated zone surface-based study (8.3.1.2.2.3) has been reduced in scope in accordance with the priorities and planning assumptions for site investigations implemented for FY 1996 (CRWMS M&O 1995a, Volume 1, p. 6.3-1). The SCP (DOE 1988) indicated that 17 vertical boreholes would be drilled, tested, and instrumented in support of this study, 9 holes would penetrate to just above the potential repository horizon, and 8 holes would penetrate the unsaturated zone below the potential repository horizon. Monitoring of pneumatic pressure, temperature, and water potential was to be performed in each hole for a minimum of 3 to 5 years. Although 16 holes have been drilled and used by this study, four of these were drilled along the alignment of the north ramp of the ESF rather than in the feature-based locations originally planned. Of the 16 holes drilled, 8 terminated above the repository horizon and 7 penetrated to below the repository horizon. However, no deep borehole has been drilled, or excavation made, to characterize the Ghost Dance fault in the Calico Hills Formation below the repository horizon. No additional surface-based drilling is scheduled in this area in the Long-Range Plan (CRWMS M&O 1996a, p. A-6), except that which could be a part of confirmatory testing. Perched water was detected in 7 of the 16 boreholes (CRWMS M&O 2000c, Section 8.5.2). Of the 16 holes drilled, 7 have been instrumented as planned to monitor pneumatic pressure, temperature, and water potential, while 2 holes were instrumented for pressure and temperature (Nye County), 2 for pressure only (flexible borehole liners), and 1 for vertical seismic profiling. A significant change in the study has been the increased emphasis on the effects of ESF construction on the natural gas-phase system. This occurred because of commitments made to the NRC to perform “pneumatic instrumentation and data collection in the vicinity of the ESF, prior to the passage of the tunnel boring machine, to characterize the pneumatic pathways of the mountain before the ESF cuts across possible pneumatic barriers” (CRWMS M&O 1995a, Volume 1, p. 6.3-1). Air-injection tests to determine gas-phase permeability have been conducted in 4 of the holes, only one of which penetrated below the repository horizon. Air-permeability testing in surface-based boreholes was suspended because sufficient data have been collected to support this phase of the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management Program. Further, no cross-hole pneumatic or gas-tracer tests have been conducted, and no additional pneumatic tests are planned. Contrary to the SCP (DOE 1988), no boreholes have been drilled and tested on opposite sides of the Solitario Canyon fault or at the southern end of Yucca Mountain. In FY 1999, borehole USW SD-6 was drilled from the crest of Yucca Mountain to obtain information about rock properties of the repository horizon and hydrologic data on the saturated zone. The hole was drilled to a depth of 2,808 ft (855.9 m). There are no plans to instrument this or other surface-based boreholes at the crest for hydrologic monitoring in the unsaturated zone or for vertical seismic profiling. Pneumatic and aqueous tracer tests in instrumented boreholes associated with the Solitario Canyon study have been deleted from the testing program, consistent with the revised program strategy described in the Program Plan (DOE 1994a, Volume 1, Appendix A, p. A-4). However, many of the objectives of the Solitario Canyon fault horizontal borehole study are expected to be met by planned hydrologic testing in the cross drift being constructed as part of the Enhanced Characterization of the Repository Block (ECRB), also known as the East-West Cross Drift. However, testing has yet to be implemented. For more information on the ECRB cross drift, see the description of study 8.3.1.2.2.4 below. Although there are no additional surface-based boreholes planned to intersect the Ghost Dance fault, two test alcoves off the main ESF tunnel have been constructed, and horizontal boreholes drilled from these alcoves intersected the Ghost Dance fault. Much of the hydrogeologic testing planned for these boreholes has been completed (see Progress Report #17 (DOE 1998b, Section 5.2)). Data from these tests were used to characterize hydrologic conditions in the vicinity of the fault at the repository horizon. These hydrologic conditions have been used to constrain the unsaturated zone flow and transport models (Bodvarsson et al. 1997, pp. 7-27 through 7-33). From FY 1995 through FY 1998, monitoring of pneumatic pressure, temperature, and water potential continued in all seven instrumented boreholes. During late FY 1998 and early FY 1999, three boreholes were removed from the active monitoring network to reduce costs. Monitoring in the other four boreholes continued through FY 2000 and FY 2001. After performing a detailed decision analysis in late FY 2001, the DOE decided to deactivate the remaining boreholes because no additional data were needed from them to support the site recommendation or the license application. Following final equipment calibration and other close-out activities, the remaining four boreholes are expected to be deactivated by the end of the first quarter of FY 2002. 4. In the percolation in the unsaturated zone ESF study (8.3.1.2.2.4), a number of changes in testing strategy resulted from reconfiguration of ESF from vertical shafts to ramps and drifts. The multipurpose-borehole testing was deleted because of its association with vertical shafts and was replaced by the series of north ramp geologic holes and other boreholes. The intact-fracture and excavation-effects tests have been terminated consistent with the strategy described in the Program Plan (DOE 1994a, Volume 1, Appendix A, p. A-4) because they would not lead to reduction in residual uncertainty in hydrologic parameters at the site scale. The in situ testing for the bulk-permeability test has been combined with the radial-boreholes and major-faults tests, both of which are ongoing, consistent with the work-consolidation efforts implemented as part of FY 1996 planning (CRWMS M&O 1995a, pp. 6.3-51 and 6.3-52). The modeling part of the bulk-permeability test is being accomplished under Study 8.3.1.2.2.8 (fluid flow in unsaturated fractured rock). Although the percolation tests on blocks of intact rock were deleted from the testing program, a reconfigured series of in situ field tests have been implemented. These tests are continuing to estimate hydrologic properties of the faulted and unfaulted rock mass and the flux of water moving downward through the repository horizon in the ESF under present-day conditions. These tests include the Ghost Dance Fault hydrologic testing, niche seepage studies, cross drift niche test, cross drift systematic hydrological characterization, Alcove 8/Niche 3 test, and the cross drift bulkhead and moisture-monitoring studies. Testing of the hydrologic properties of the Ghost Dance Fault in the ESF is documented in LeCain et al. (2000). In the niche seepage studies, a series of seepage-rate threshold tests were conducted at three niches along the ESF main drift during FY 2000. The data were used for the development, calibration, and validation of the Seepage Calibration Model (CRWMS M&O 2001a) as it applies to the TSw middle nonlithophysal unit. The cross drift niche test is being conducted to measure seepage and seepage thresholds in the TSw lower nonlithophysal unit. The cross drift systematic hydrological characterization effort, started in May 2000, is utilizing slanted boreholes drilled into the crown of the cross drift at an interval of one borehole every 30 m. The boreholes are used for determination of spatial heterogeneity of seepage potential and to measure effective porosity. The Alcove 8/Niche 3 test is evaluating seepage potential in a fault zone and the Cross Drift bulkhead and moisture-monitoring study is investigating the source of moisture (seepage or condensation) observed in sections of the cross drift that have been isolated from ventilation. Progress in these studies is described in Progress Report 23 (DOE 2001c) and in Section 3.3. of Progress Report 24 (in progress). Because perched water was never encountered in the ESF, the perched-water test was never implemented. However, perched-water testing was conducted in surface-based boreholes under Studies 8.3.1.2.2.3 (Section 1.1.2) and 8.3.1.2.3.1 (Section 1.1.3). Extensive studies of secondary minerals deposited in the unsaturated zone and fluid inclusions within the minerals have been conducted and are continuing in the ESF and cross drift. These studies are intended to determine the age of the deposits, source of the deposition water, temperature of the water, percolation flux associated with mineral deposition, distribution of flux in fractures and fault zones, and the overall response of the unsaturated zone to past climate changes. These studies are summarized and statused in Section 1.4.2, Changes and Status, item 1. A test not anticipated in the SCP (DOE 1988) involving moisture monitoring in the ESF is under way. This test is intended to develop a water mass balance for the ESF and to determine how much naturally occurring water is being removed from the ESF by the ventilation system. In addition, two drift-scale seepage tests have been implemented in alcoves off the ESF main drift and north ramp. The seepage test in the Southern Ghost Dance Fault Alcove (Alcove 7) is being conducted under close to natural conditions, in that the alcove was sealed from the rest of the ESF in December 1997 with a bulkhead to inhibit drying of the alcove by the ESF ventilation system. A drip-detection system was installed in the Southern Ghost Dance Fault Alcove to monitor natural seepage into the alcove, which is located at the repository horizon about 200 m (650 ft) below land surface. This seepage test was implemented just prior to a period of increased surface infiltration caused by above-normal precipitation because of El Niño climatic conditions. The other drift-scale seepage test is being conducted under artificial conditions in the Upper Tiva Canyon Alcove (Alcove 1), which is only 35 m (115 ft) below land surface. In this seepage test, water was applied artificially to the land surface using a drip-irrigation system to simulate wetter-than-normal climatic conditions. This test was conducted to observe how a moisture front moves through fractured rock and how the drift itself influences percolation through the fracture network. Results of the Alcove 1 seepage test are described in Progress Report 22 (DOE 2000a). Another major study in the ESF involved the East-West Cross Drift. The cross drift was constructed from the ESF north ramp to the southwest about 2.8 km (1.6 mile) (CRWMS M&O 1997b). The cross drift crosses over the main loop of the ESF, traverses the repository block from northeast to southwest, and then penetrates the Solitario Canyon fault system. A series of five studies will be conducted in the cross drift: ? Geologic mapping of stratigraphy and structure ? Analysis of geotechnical and hydrologic rock properties ? Mineralogical analysis to estimate past percolation flux and flow paths ? Hydrological studies to assess the moisture conditions, identify preferential and/or fast flow paths, and assess effects of variable surface infiltration ? Predictive analyses. The predictive analyses involved preparation of a series of reports on the geology, hydrology, and geochemistry along the cross drift before excavation in order to help confirm and validate the general understanding of the repository block. As noted above, extensive moisture monitoring is being conducted in the cross drift bulkhead and moisture-monitoring study. Discrete testing of the Calico Hills nonwelded (CHn) hydrogeologic unit in the ESF was deleted from the study plan in Revision 9 of the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Program Baseline (YMP 1992). However, testing in the CHn may be conducted as part of future testing activities in the cross drift. To obtain early information on the CHn, a large-scale unsaturated zone transport test was started during FY 1998 within the Busted Butte facility about 6 km (3.6 mi) from the south portal of the ESF. This two-phase test is providing information crucial to understanding radionuclide retardation and colloid migration in the Calico Hills Formation (Bussod et al. 1997, pp. 5-31, 5-39). The test results also will help resolve scaling issues associated with the use of laboratory data to validate transport-model input for the Total System Performance Assessment. 5. No diffusion tests have been conducted in the ESF (Study 8.3.1.2.2.5), and plans to conduct such tests have been suspended indefinitely. Natural radioisotopes have been encountered in samples collected at several locations from the ESF and surface-based boreholes. The occurrence of these naturally occurring (albeit possibly anthropogenically enhanced) tracers will continue to be used in conjunction with laboratory testing of matrix diffusion processes and parameters to define the role of matrix diffusion in the unsaturated zone radionuclide transport model. In addition, tracer testing in the saturated zone at the C-hole complex has provided information, at the scale of several tens of meters, about the role of matrix diffusion in the tuffaceous rocks at Yucca Mountain. Preliminary results of C-hole tracer tests completed in the Prow Pass Tuff (the uppermost unit in the saturated zone) indicate that matrix diffusion occurs, flow rates and hydraulic conductivity are very low, lithium sorption is greater than predicted by laboratory tests, and microsphere transport is reduced, indicating low hydraulic conductivity (Progress Report 20, Section 3.4 (DOE 1999b). 6. Although the gas-phase movement study (8.3.1.2.2.6) has collected and used data from about a dozen more boreholes than was expected, the scope of work planned for key locations and boreholes has been reduced because not as many surface-based boreholes were drilled as anticipated by the SCP (DOE 1988), and because of a judgment that sufficient data have been collected to support this phase of the Program. Accordingly, the study investigators were requested to produce a synthesis report in FY 1996 (CRWMS M&O 1995a, p. 6.3-2) using existing data to assess the status of the study and provide input to the Viability Assessment. The results of this study provide input to evaluation of the potential for transport of significant amounts of heat energy and water vapor from the rock mass into the atmosphere under both natural conditions and the thermal load associated with emplaced nuclear waste (Bodvarsson and Bandurraga 1996, Section 12.4; Patterson et al. 1996, p. 3). Gas and water-vapor flow through the unsaturated zone are driven by changes in barometric pressure, temperature-induced density differences, and wind effects. Preliminary evaluations of these mechanisms are described in Patterson et al. (1996, pp. 67–75), Bodvarsson and Bandurraga (1996, Section 2.3.1), and Weeks (1993). Examples of reduced technical scope include the fact that neither the two vertical boreholes planned to straddle the Solitario Canyon fault nor the horizontal borehole to penetrate it were drilled. Also, the cross-hole tracer tests planned for the USW UZ-9 borehole complex have not been conducted because this cluster of boreholes has been deleted from the testing program. Further, the extensive sampling of boreholes for chlorofluorocarbons to determine residence time of gas in the Tiva Canyon welded (TCw) hydrogeologic unit and to investigate possible breaches in PTn hydrogeologic unit was not conducted. A significant change from the original study strategy has been the use of the effects of ESF construction on the gas-phase system to estimate pneumatic properties of the unsaturated zone. This occurred because of commitments made to the NRC to perform “pneumatic instrumentation and data collection in the vicinity of the ESF, prior to the passage of the tunnel boring machine, to characterize the pneumatic pathways of the mountain before the ESF cuts across possible pneumatic barriers” (CRWMS M&O 1995a, Volume 1, p. 6.3-1). This was new work, identified since the SCP (DOE 1988) was issued. The work was done to take advantage of the opportunity to use barometric responses to estimate large-scale pneumatic diffusivity in the ESF. Specifically, a numerical gas-flow model of the ESF north ramp was constructed to simulate the progressive effects of excavating the north ramp as detected in nearby surface-based boreholes (Patterson et al. 1996, pp. 50–67). A parameter-estimation technique was used to determine horizontal and vertical permeabilities of the Topopah Spring Tuff. Although this preliminary, three-dimensional gas-phase modeling of the ESF north ramp area was done for this study, all remaining site-scale, gas-phase modeling will be done under Study 8.3.1.2.2.9. 7. In the unsaturated zone hydrochemistry study (8.3.1.2.2.7), pore water has been extracted for hydrochemical and isotopic analysis from the cores of 9 of the 15 boreholes drilled to support deep unsaturated zone studies (see item 3 above). The scope of the hydrochemistry study was reduced because sufficient data have been collected to support this phase of the Program. Accordingly, a synthesis report was produced in FY 1996 using existing data to provide input for the Viability Assessment (CRWMS M&O 1995a, p. 6.3-2). Detailed, time-series gas-composition and isotopic-content data has been collected from borehole USW UZ-1, which is north of the repository. Gas samples have been collected from 8 other boreholes, but in two instances the sampling was very limited (Yang, Rattray et al. 1996, pp. 40–47). Further, gas samples have been collected from below the repository horizon in the Calico Hills Formation in one borehole (Yang, Yu et al. 1998, p. 4). Overall, although inferences and conclusions regarding fluid movement have had to be based on fewer data from fewer locations in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain, the data collected are sufficient to meet the basic objectives and strategy for this study. Significant additional information on naturally occurring radioisotopes has been collected from the ESF. These data have increased confidence in the unsaturated zone flow and transport models. These data from the ESF combined with the borehole hydrochemical and isotopic data have been used to constrain these models. 8. Because of significant changes in the ESF testing strategy (see item 4 above), the flow in unsaturated fractured rock study (8.3.1.2.2.8) has de-emphasized development of conceptual and numerical models solely for design and interpretation of small-scale ESF tests. Instead, the study has concentrated on using all data available from the ESF to construct representative fracture-flow models at about the drift scale. These models, particularly of the Topopah Spring welded (TSw) hydrogeologic unit, have provided a basis for calculation of the spatial distribution and magnitude of fracture flow that could seep into drifts of the potential repository (Tsang et al. 1997; CRWMS M&O 2000aj). Evaluation of the fracture-network models is complete; it has been determined that one of the most appropriate models is the dual-permeability model, including both fracture and matrix continua. This model has now been used as one of the main models for TSPA for both the drift-scale seepage model and the site-scale model. In addition, as part of model development, a series of modeling approaches for small-scale flow phenomena have been applied directly to the unsaturated zone site- scale model (Bodvarsson et al. 1997, Chapters 7, 21, and 24). These include fracture- matrix interaction modules, a hysteresis model, and an equivalent for unsaturated fracture models. These approaches and models provide the theoretical and applied basis for evaluating various complex processes within the site-scale model. 9. The site-scale unsaturated zone modeling and synthesis study (8.3.1.2.2.9) has exceeded expectations for simulation of the site-scale unsaturated zone system. This has occurred, in part, because of significant advances in the numerical code and computer technology used in the modeling effort (Section 3.1.13, Activity 8.3.1.2.2.9.2 of Progress Report #15 (DOE 1997b); Progress Reports #7, #8, and #9, Section 2.2.1.13, Activity 8.3.1.2.2.9.2 (DOE 1992b, 1993, and 1994b)). In addition, construction of the ESF ramp-and-drift configuration, during the time that the site-scale model was being developed, afforded an unexpected opportunity to calibrate the gas-phase part of the model. Although it has been necessary to develop and calibrate the model with data from fewer surface-based boreholes than originally expected, data from instrumented boreholes documenting atmospheric-pressure fluctuations from ESF construction on the gas-phase system has made possible enhanced, large-scale, transient-state modeling of gas-pressure propagation through the mountain (Ahlers et al. 1995, Section 4). These data have led not only to enhanced simulation of the gaseous phase but also to improved understanding and representation of fracture and fault diffusivities and permeabilities in the site-scale model. Further, using temperature-gradient and heat-flow data for the unsaturated zone has led to enhancement of the ability of the model to simulate and predict moisture flow (Progress Report #15, Section 3.1.13, Activity 8.3.1.2.2.9.3 (DOE 1997b); Bodvarsson and Bandurraga 1996, Chapters 6, 8, and 9). The model calibration has been further refined by using a variety of site information, including pneumatic pressures, saturations, updated data on the geologic framework, hydrologic properties, fracture and fault properties, vertical temperature variations, and perched water data. Hydrochemistry and isotopic ratios have also been considered. Conceptual models for fracture-matrix interaction have also been incorporated. The Unsaturated Zone Model utilized this calibrated hydrologic property set with a three-dimensional, steady-state, isothermal, dual-permeability modeling approach, including both fracture and matrix continua, to generate 39 flow fields for use by TSPA. Enhancements are currently planned or underway, including—but not limited to—the use of multi-dimensional inversions, continued updating of the hydrologic properties with new site data, and further development of the fracture-matrix interaction model. During FY 1998 through FY 2000, development of the unsaturated zone flow and transport model for TSPA-SR was completed, including coupled-processes and drift-seepage components. Complete descriptions of model development and results of simulations are documented in Unsaturated Zone Flow and Transport Model Process Model Report (CRWMS M&O 2000aq). During FY 2001, components of the unsaturated-zone model were updated, including flow, transport, coupled processes, and drift seepage. Descriptions of the updated model components and results of recent simulations are described in the FY 01 Supplemental Science and Performance Analyses, Volume 1: Scientific Bases and Analyses (SSPA Vol. 1) (BSC 2001k). A major technical issue that has emerged since the SCP (DOE 1988) was written concerns the relation between site-scale percolation flux and the quantity of water that might seep into an individual drift in the potential repository. Consequently, modeling of gas and water movement in the vicinity of a drift is receiving considerable emphasis (Tsang et al. 1997) (see also Progress Report #19, Section 2.3 (DOE 1999a); Progress Report #20, Section 3.3 (DOE 1999b); and appropriate sections of more recent progress reports). Drift-scale modeling has been conducted and is continuing to: ? Incorporate results from various ESF hydrologic tests into the model for calculating the temporal and spatial distribution of fluxes near a drift ? Study the sensitivity of the model results to parameters not well established from measurements ? Calibrate modeling results against observations in the ESF and, in particular, recent niche experiments ? Estimate seepage locations and seepage flow rates at each location and for each realization of the drift model ? Incorporate the effects of near-field thermal and chemical alterations (i.e., calcite and/or silica precipitation cap) ? Simulate drift seepage for a number of alternative drift geometries, including rectangular and moderate step-like geometries. The results of recent drift-scale seepage and coupled-processes models are documented in Seepage Calibration Model and Seepage Testing Data (CRWMS M&O 2001a), Seepage Model for PA Including Drift Collapse (CRWMS M&O 2000aj), and Drift-Scale Coupled Processes (DST and THC Seepage) Models (BSC 2001i). 1.1.3 Studies to Provide a Description of the Saturated Zone Hydrologic System at the Site (SCP Investigation 8.3.1.2.3) Background and SCP Plans. The objective of this investigation was to develop a model of the saturated zone hydrologic system of Yucca Mountain that will help assess the suitability of the site to contain and isolate waste. Developing this model requires an understanding of groundwater flow. This understanding will be provided through studies focusing on the determination of boundary conditions imposed by structure, recharge, and discharge; hydraulic gradients in three dimensions; and bulk aquifer properties of units. Modeling activities will use the resulting information to calculate groundwater flow paths, fluxes, and velocities within the saturated zone. This investigation included three studies developed to accomplish the following: 1. Study 8.3.1.2.3.1 (characterization of the site saturated zone groundwater flow system): This study was to: ? Determine the hydrogeologic nature of the Solitario Canyon fault in the saturated zone ? Refine the spatial and temporal distribution of the potentiometric surface at the site to determine hydraulic gradients and groundwater flow magnitudes and directions ? Analyze water-level fluctuations to determine their causes and to estimate formation properties ? Analyze previously completed single- and multiple-well hydraulic-stress tests conducted in the C-holes to determine types of flow, hydraulic boundaries, and bulk hydraulic properties ? Conduct multiple-well interference testing in the C-holes to determine hydraulic properties, the appropriateness of anisotropic porous-media or fracture-network models, and the appropriateness of single-well or multiple-well tests ? Conduct single- and multiple-well conservative tracers tests at the C-holes and throughout the site to determine transport properties ? Conduct reactive tracer tests in the C-holes and throughout the site to determine properties of the geologic media that will affect retardation of radionuclides in the saturated zone. 2. Study 8.3.1.2.3.2 (characterization of the saturated zone hydrochemistry): This study was to: ? Describe the spatial variations in chemical composition of saturated zone groundwaters in the regional and site areas through analysis of representative water samples collected from wells and springs ? Describe the chemical and isotopic composition of the upper part of the saturated zone through analysis of representative water samples collected from the upper 100 m of the saturated zone ? Conduct geochemical modeling to identify chemical and physical processes that influence groundwater chemistry ? Aid in the identification and quantification of groundwater travel times, climatic conditions during periods of recharge, and fluxes to and from the saturated zone by analyzing the chemical and isotopic compositions of interstitial-water and gas samples collected from immediately above the water table. 3. Study 8.3.1.2.3.3 (saturated zone hydrologic system synthesis and modeling): This study was to: ? Synthesize available data into a conceptual model and make a qualitative analysis of how the site saturated zone hydrogeologic system was functioning ? Develop fracture-network models for simulating groundwater flow and conservative solute transport and relate results of hydraulic and conservative- tracer tests in wells to fracture-network characteristics ? Develop a comprehensive site-scale model of groundwater flow and transport to simulate groundwater flow direction and magnitude for input into travel-time calculations and evaluate the appropriateness of the porous-media and fracture-network concepts. Changes and Status. The primary objectives of this investigation have not changed since the SCP (DOE 1988) was issued. The SCP, however, described a more extensive program of data collection. The studies for this investigation have evolved based on technical information obtained from laboratory and field studies, model development and data application activities of the site characterization program. Rapidly increasing scientific understanding, along with periodic TSPA, have enabled focusing the ongoing site characterization program on the remaining uncertainties that are significant to the suitability of the potential repository site (DOE 1994a). Reevaluation and prioritization of Project needs (DOE 1994a) has been a continuous process based on scientific judgment and resource availability, governed by scientific criteria to ensure that data needed for site description, performance assessment, and design purposes were collected and analyzed; and to eliminate data-collection redundancy and overlap that would result from completion of all the studies in the SCP (DOE 1988). The data collection needs have been further analyzed and refined as additional knowledge has been gained through site characterization activities. This process has resulted in the following changes to the investigation: 1. In the site-scale saturated zone groundwater flow system study (8.3.1.2.3.1), the study of the Solitario Canyon fault in the saturated zone has not been conducted and is not included in the long-range plan. This is a result of the judgment (CRWMS M&O 1996a, p. A-6) that Solitario Canyon fault is not considered as crucial to predicting movement of radionuclides in the saturated zone as are hydrogeologic features and conditions down-gradient from the repository area. Although 14 of the planned 22 water table boreholes were drilled in the early 1980s, only one of the additional 8 water table holes described in the SCP (DOE 1988) has been drilled (USW WT-24). Water table boreholes that have not been drilled include two for the Solitario Canyon fault study and a second to investigate the large hydraulic gradient. Some hydraulic tests have been conducted in borehole USW G-2, but these tests resulted in no new major understanding, and the nature and cause of the large hydraulic gradient remain unresolved. Two possible hydrogeologic models for the large hydraulic gradient have been described by Fridrich et al. (1994). As a result, estimates of saturated zone flux, flow velocities, and dilution beneath the site may differ considerably for different explanations of the cause of the large hydraulic gradient (Luckey 1996, p. 2). During FY 2000 and FY 2001, a comprehensive analysis of site saturated-zone water levels was performed to provide the saturated- zone, site-scale flow and transport model with the configuration of the potentiometric surface and to target water-level data for model calibration (USGS 2001b). At the end of FY 2001, responsibility for maintaining the site water-level monitoring network was assumed by the University of Nevada Las Vegas Harry Reid Center. The Project has recognized the need for additional drilling to investigate the nature of the large hydraulic gradient. Consequently borehole USW WT-24 was drilled and partially tested in an attempt to reduce the uncertainty associated with the existence of the large hydraulic gradient north of the potential repository site and to determine whether or not perched water exists in the area. Water-quality sampling and hydraulic testing have confirmed that perched water exists on top of the Topopah Spring Tuff basal vitrophyre at the location of USW WT-24. Further, deepening of borehole USW WT-24 into the Prow Pass Tuff revealed an apparent water level that seems to be consistent with the large hydraulic gradient. (Note: USW WT-24 was completed at a depth of about 2834 feet (864 m) on May 14, 1998. For information on drilling progress, see CRWMS M&O 1998o.) Although the C-holes multiple-well interference and tracer tests have been conducted mostly as planned, not as many of the high-producing flow zones have been tested as originally planned, and testing at the low-producing zone will probably be limited (Progress Report #16, Section 3.1.14 (DOE 1997a). To date, cross-hole hydraulic and tracer tests at the C-holes have been conducted in the lower part of the Bullfrog Tuff and the Prow Pass Tuff. The Prow Pass tests were completed in February 1999 and data were submitted to the Project technical database. In FY 2000 and FY 2001, final calibrations were obtained for equipment used in the C-holes tests (transducers and flow meters) and data packages were modified. In addition, data, analyses, and interpretations from the C-holes hydraulic and tracer tests were compiled as input to the saturated-zone in situ-testing AMR, which is in preparation. C-holes testing was reduced in scope in accordance with the priorities and planning assumptions for site investigations implemented for FY 1996 (CRWMS M&O 1995a, Volume 1, p. 6.3-62). In addition, the sequencing of testing has been modified so that hydraulic, conservative-tracer, and reactive-tracer tests are being conducted sequentially in a single flow zone before conducting any tests in the next flow zone. Although single-well hydraulic tests have been conducted in two water table holes (USW WT-10 and UE-25 WT#12), the results are of limited value (O’Brien 1997, p. 35) because storativity data were not obtainable from the tests, and well-bore losses imparted additional uncertainties to the test results. Therefore, no other single-well hydraulic or tracer tests are planned. Instead, a second multiple-well test site has been drilled along a flow path south of the repository site, and the complex is now being called the Alluvial Testing Complex (ATC). The multiple-well test site being considered is near the proposed 20-km compliance boundary (probably near U.S. Highway 95) and will be implemented cooperatively with the Nye County EWDP. This test site offers the opportunity for hydraulic and tracer testing in the alluvium. A few widely spaced wells were drilled in FY 1999 by Nye County, and one of these (NC-EWDP-19D1) was chosen for the ATC. Additional wells were drilled in FY 2000 to obtain a closely spaced well cluster that allows hydraulic and tracer testing over reasonable time frames. Hydraulic and tracer tests were conducted at the ATC during FY 2000 and FY 2001 to determine hydrologic properties and to measure the reduction in the concentration of solutes as they move through the saturated zone. Results from the Nye County EWDP and the Alluvial Testing Complex are summarized in Section 3.4 of Progress Report 24 (in progress). 2. In the saturated zone hydrochemistry study (8.3.1.2.3.2), the SCP (DOE 1988) called for intensive water and gas sampling from discrete intervals in 22 water table holes, 14 existing and 8 new holes. Hydrochemical testing was to include the clean out of all existing water table holes, extraction and analysis of interstitial water from cores of the new holes, and multi-element geochemical analyses of selected samples. Although a few mixed-interval samples have been collected from two water table holes, the C-holes, and USW G-2, the site saturated zone hydrochemistry study remains only partially implemented. Subsequent to the SCP, a plan was devised for in situ determinations of pH, Eh, and temperature in all 22 water table holes using a sophisticated downhole hydrochemical tool. However, this plan was abandoned because of the high cost of the tool, uncertain potential for increasing knowledge, and the need to support critical saturated zone modeling efforts. Although a limited number of water samples have been collected for chemical and isotopic analyses from springs during the regional study near Death Valley, the regional hydrochemistry study also remains only partially implemented. The saturated zone hydrochemistry study has not been implemented as planned because of the programmatic judgment (CRWMS M&O 1995a, Volume l, p. 6.3-66) that saturated zone hydrochemistry studies would have less impact on site suitability determinations than other studies and were therefore assigned a lower priority. This is consistent with the strategy described in the Program Plan (DOE 1994a, Volume 1, Appendix A, p. A-4) that not all studies in the SCP (DOE 1988) would be completed before the suitability of Yucca Mountain is evaluated. It should be kept in mind that the primary purpose of the saturated zone hydrochemistry study was to use hydrochemical and isotopic data to corroborate purely hydrogeologic evidence of regional and site-scale groundwater sources, recharge, fluxes, flow paths, and travel times. Hydrochemical corroboration for regional flow paths has been adequately accomplished, as described below. However, a similar evaluation at site scale may not be possible at present because of a lack of hydrochemical data from existing boreholes in the immediate vicinity of Yucca Mountain. The importance of the hydrochemical corroboration at the site scale is debatable and does not currently have a high priority. In FY 1998, because the NRC announced its intention to issue new disposal regulations specific to Yucca Mountain (which ultimately became 10 CFR Part 63) that would be dose based, the Project re-evaluated the need for hydrochemical investigations in the saturated zone and implemented systematic hydrochemical sampling of wells down-gradient from Yucca Mountain. The focus of this testing has shifted to the Nye County wells along U.S. Highway 95 and in the northern Amargosa Desert because of their proximity to the proposed compliance boundary. Consequently, hydrochemical and isotopic sampling of wells down-gradient from Yucca Mountain continued during FY 1999, FY 2000, and FY 2001 to help determine flow paths in the saturated zone. Regional hydrogeochemical information has been collected by other programs along the likely paths of regional groundwater flow. The regional data, combined with the limited data collected under this study, have been used to enhance confidence in the regional groundwater flow model. The geochemical “signatures” of greatest interest are distributions of major dissolved ions and stable isotope ratios that occur over large scales and are indicative of general mixing and geochemical evolution along regional flow paths. Accordingly, following calibration of the regional groundwater flow model, general flow-path maps were generated from model output and superimposed over a series of maps depicting regional hydrochemical data. Apparent hydrochemical evolution along major flow paths was evaluated qualitatively to corroborate the possibility or likelihood of the flow path generated by the model. These evaluations were performed along general flow paths from major recharge areas (i.e., Spring Mountains, Pahute Mesa, Sheep Range) to major discharge areas (i.e., Ash Meadows, Oasis Valley, Furnace Creek Ranch). Even though the hydrochemical-data sets along these major flow paths are somewhat incomplete and discontinuous, in general, the hydrochemical evaluation corroborated the flow paths generated by the flow model. To continue this analysis, a new activity was implemented in FY 1999 titled “Isotopic and Hydrochemical Saturated Zone Studies” with the principal objective of delineating saturated zone flow paths and establishing travel times down-gradient from the potential repository using hydrochemical and isotopic data. The results of the initial phase of this activity are summarized in Progress Report 23 (DOE 2001c). The results are being used to constrain and validate the regional groundwater flow model in terms of testing the credibility of model flow paths with regard to the chemical and isotopic parameters along these suggested pathways. This effort continued in FY 2000 and FY 2001 and is expected to continue for several more years. 3. In the site saturated zone hydrologic system synthesis and modeling study (8.3.1.2.3.3), construction and calibration of a site-scale, porous-media-equivalent flow model is proceeding generally as planned, and a preliminary model has been completed (Czarnecki et al. 1997). However, because of the application of sophisticated geographic information system and geologic-modeling techniques, the geologic framework model on which the flow model is based may be more rigorous and detailed than was envisioned when the SCP (DOE 1988) was issued. Although not completely calibrated, the final saturated zone, site-scale model will contain uncertainty for several reasons: ? Limited field tests have been completed to characterize the large-scale anisotropy because of a sparseness of hydraulic-test locations to serve as control points for model calibration ? Uncertainty persists about the cause of the large hydraulic gradient ? Uncertainty persists about fluxes at the northern model boundary because no potentiometric data are available in the Timber Mountain area to calibrate the regional model from which boundary fluxes are derived for the site-scale model ? Sparse hard data are available on the geometry and hydraulic properties of the Paleozoic carbonate aquifer underlying Yucca Mountain ? High quality chemical and isotopic data from the saturated zone are not sufficient to corroborate flow patterns. The degree to which these uncertainties in the saturated zone flow model might affect its use in TSPA was ascertained during the saturated zone flow and transport model abstraction and testing workshop, held April 1-3, 1997 in Denver, Colorado (CRWMS M&O 1997a). The workshop identified and prioritized key uncertainties about saturated zone flow and developed analysis plans to aid in the resolution of high-priority issues. Alternative representations of the large hydraulic gradient north of the site were not addressed by an analysis plan (CRWMS M&O 1997a, pp. 1-12). This is because it was the consensus of the workshop participants that these alternative representations would have little or no impact on the predicted concentrations of radionuclides 30 km down-gradient from the potential repository. However, alternative representations of the large hydraulic gradient have been tested as part of the ongoing development and refinement of the site-scale saturated zone flow model. If the potential impacts to onsite performance appear to be large from these alternative flow models, the alternative representations can be incorporated into the abstraction process at a later date (CRWMS M&O 1997a, pp. 1-12). Abstractions are developed using a conceptual model that has a large hydraulic gradient. The Project also conducted a saturated zone flow and transport expert elicitation (CRWMS M&O 1998b). The experts generally agreed that groundwater in the saturated zone flows from beneath the repository to the southeast and south primarily through fractured volcanic tuffs of the middle volcanic aquifer and the valley fill alluvium (DOE 1998a, Volume 3, Section 3.7.1.4). Some panel members suggested that sorptive characteristics of the alluvium could significantly contribute to retardation of some radionuclides. They expected faults and fracture zones to have important impacts on flow in the volcanic units. The panel members offered alternative hypotheses for the large hydraulic gradient north of Yucca Mountain, and there was disagreement regarding the importance of this feature to repository performance. The panel members did agree that any major transient change in the large hydraulic gradient is unlikely. The panel members also generally concurred with interpretations of geochemical and paleospring data indicating water table rises of 80 to 120 m (260 to 395 ft) beneath the repository in response to past climatic variations. For transport of contaminants in the saturated zone, the experts emphasized the limitations of processes that would cause dilution of contaminant concentrations. The experts believe that transport would be by movement in vertically thin plumes through flow tubes beneath the repository. Dilution of contaminants would occur by vertical transverse dispersion and transient fluctuations in the direction of the hydraulic gradient. The experts generally rejected a mixed tank model in which contaminated flow from the unsaturated zone would mix on a large scale with uncontaminated groundwater in the saturated zone. Consequently, the flow model, developed by Czarnecki et al. (1997), was not used for the TSPA-VA flow and transport calculations. Instead, simulations of radionuclide transport in the saturated zone for the TSPA calculations were performed with six one-dimensional flow tubes using the FEHM code (V2.0 STN: 10031-2.0-00), which simulates heat and mass transfer for finite elements (DOE 1998a, Volume 3, Section 3.7.2). Streamtubes are taken from a concept in classical fluid dynamics that is used to visualize and estimate the behavior of the elements of a flow system. Each of the six streamtubes is a continuation of a groundwater flow path from the repository in the unsaturated zone. For TSPA-SR, the updated saturated zone flow and transport model (CRWMS M&O 2000ak) was used to evaluate the migration of radionuclides from their introduction at the water table below the potential repository to the release point to the biosphere, which was assumed to be a hypothetical well down-gradient from the site (DOE 2001a, Section 4.2.9.4). This component of the analysis was coupled with the transport calculations for the unsaturated zone, which describe the movement of contaminants in downward percolating groundwater from the potential repository to the water table. The input to the saturated zone flow-and-transport calculations is the spatial and temporal distribution of simulated mass flux at the water table that has been transported through the unsaturated zone. Although “generic” fracture-network-modeling techniques have been developed, a fracture-network model of the C-hole complex has not yet been developed because the extensive data that would have been required exceeded the data that could be collected. Fracture-network models require intensive fracture mapping and characterization in order to develop a simulated fracture network that is statistically similar to the “real” network. The level of detail required for the fracture data is on the order of that obtained in the ESF. That degree of fracture characterization is not possible in vertical boreholes (even at the scale of the three C-holes) because of limited access to the rock mass and because of the bias introduced by boreholes intersecting subvertical fractures. Although an exhaustive series of tracer tests might be possible to isolate and map individual fractures from one C-hole to another, such tests would be extremely time-consuming and very costly. Moreover, fracture- network modeling has been abandoned in general because analysis of field data and reasonable conceptual models of saturated zone flow at scales of interest (drawdown transients in the C-holes and in neighboring wells as far as 3.5 km) fit continuum analytic models. Furthermore, dispersivities derived from tracer tests at the C-holes exhibit both continuum and non-continuum. 1.2 GEOCHEMISTRY PROGRAM (SCP SECTION 8.3.1.3) The geochemistry program was intended to characterize site geochemical conditions and evaluate the effectiveness of the geochemical “barriers” that are expected to inhibit the transport of radionuclides away from the potential repository. The program of geochemical testing described in the SCP (DOE 1988) concerned characterizing those areas of the site that lie beyond the “altered zone” (see Section 1.15 of this document). The major purpose of the geochemistry program was to quantify the radionuclide retardation factor. This factor was expected to be greater than one, and values greater than one were expected to provide added confidence to the calculations of transport to the accessible environment based on advective and dispersive transport calculations. 1.2.1 Studies to Provide Information on Water Chemistry within the Potential Emplacement Horizon and Along Potential Flow Paths (SCP Investigation 8.3.1.3.1) Background and SCP Plans. The objectives of this investigation were to provide a groundwater chemistry model that would explain the present groundwater composition as a result of interactions of the groundwater with minerals and be able to predict future variations in groundwater chemistry (under anticipated and unanticipated conditions) that could alter radionuclide flux through the saturated and unsaturated zone. This investigation included one study developed to accomplish the following: Study 8.3.1.3.1.1 (groundwater chemistry modeling): This study was to develop pre- and post-emplacement groundwater chemistry models that would integrate the unsaturated and saturated zone data with the processes of water infiltration, water flow, and mineralogic changes to develop a mechanistic description of the current and future groundwater chemistry. The study was also intended to consider changes in infiltration as influenced by climatic conditions; long-term mineralogic changes, particularly those influenced by the thermal pulse from emplaced waste; and changes in the material properties caused by the emplaced waste, or possible igneous activity. These models have been integrated with several investigations in the geochemistry program. Changes and Status. The primary objectives of this investigation have not changed since the SCP was issued. The SCP (DOE 1988), however, described a more extensive program of data collection. The studies for this investigation have evolved based on technical information obtained from laboratory and field studies, model development and data application activities of the site characterization program. Rapidly increasing scientific understanding, along with periodic TSPA, have enabled focusing the ongoing site characterization program on the remaining uncertainties that are significant to the design, operation and safe performance of the potential repository (DOE 1994a). Reevaluation and prioritization of Project needs (DOE 1994a) has been a continuous process based on scientific judgment and resource availability, governed by scientific criteria to ensure that data needed for site description, performance assessment, and design purposes were collected and analyzed. Data-collection redundancy and overlap have been eliminated. The data-collection needs have been further analyzed and refined as additional knowledge has been gained through years of site characterization activities. This process has resulted in changes to the investigation. In the groundwater chemistry modeling study (8.3.1.3.1.1), the number of laboratory experiments on water-rock interaction has been decreased, resulting in remaining uncertainty about the quantitative models of the processes that control water chemistry in the saturated and unsaturated zones. To address a majority of these uncertainties, saturated zone hydrochemistry testing is under way both at Yucca Mountain and in the new Nye County EWDP wells. This testing provides information about spatial variability in water chemistry, oxidation-reduction potential (Eh), pH, colloid content, and groundwater flow using both chemical and isotopic tracers. The oxidation-reduction chemistry of the saturated zone may play a major role in the retardation of the very soluble radionuclides Np and Tc (see Section 1.2.4, Study 8.3.1.3.4.3). Uncertainties also involve the rate and manner in which volcanic glass is altered when it comes in contact with different water compositions. Alteration of glass can strongly influence pH and the concentrations of other constituents in solution. Information has been provided to studies of radionuclide retardation and transport. Additional information on the solid phases involved in the alteration of volcanic glass would be needed to develop detailed deterministic models of groundwater chemistry. The solid phases buffer the dissolved concentrations of major solutes which, in turn, influence the distribution of dissolved radionuclides. A range of possible water and rock compositions, which may change with time, are expected to be encountered along the likely paths of radionuclide transport in the unsaturated and saturated zones. Some of the compositional variation will likely result from repository-induced effects (e.g., temperature increases). To the extent that these variations are known or predictable, they will be included in the hydrochemical model. However, significant uncertainty regarding the identity of secondary phases and reaction kinetics involving these phases will remain. The extent to which these variabilities and uncertainties affect radionuclide transport will be bounded in future TSPAs. In FY 2000 and FY 2001, comprehensive reports on the geochemistry of the unsaturated and saturated zones were developed as input to TSPA-SR (BSC 2001j; CRWMS M&O 2001b). 1.2.2 Studies to Provide Information on Mineralogy, Petrology, and Rock Chemistry within the Potential Emplacement Horizon and Along Potential Flow Paths (SCP Investigation 8.3.1.3.2) Background and SCP Plans. The purpose of this investigation is to provide the baseline set of data and a basic understanding of the natural environment in which geochemical and other processes interact. The objectives of this investigation are to determine the three-dimensional distribution of mineral types, compositions, and abundances in rocks beyond the host rock that provide pathways to the accessible environment; determine the timing, temperatures, and hydrologic conditions of past alteration at Yucca Mountain; study experimentally the dehydration of smectite, zeolite, and glass; and use the results to develop descriptive and predictive models of mineral distributions along potential pathways to the accessible environment. This investigation includes two studies developed to accomplish the following: 1. Study 8.3.1.3.2.1 (mineralogy, petrology, and chemistry of transport pathways): This study was to ? Determine the petrologic variability within the devitrified Topopah Spring Tuff at Yucca Mountain and define the stratigraphic distribution of variability ? Determine the three-dimensional distribution chemistry and total abundance of all major rock-matrix minerals between the host rock and the accessible environment ? Determine the distributions of minerals within fractures at Yucca Mountain. 2. Study 8.3.1.3.2.2 (history of mineralogy and geochemical alteration at Yucca Mountain): This study was to: ? Determine past temperatures from alteration mineral assemblages as a means to estimate the long-term thermal stabilities of important sorptive phases, such as clinoptilolite, and of the silica polymorphs that can influence water composition, precipitation, and the stabilities of other silicate minerals ? Investigate correlations between alteration mineralogy and rock hydrologic properties so that patterns of alteration can provide technical justification for choices of bounding and extrapolated property values used in numerical simulations ? Coordinate mineralogic and textural analysis with isotopic studies of groundwater percolation to promote understanding of fault, fracture, and matrix flow paths ? Determine how minerals and glasses in the rocks at Yucca Mountain will dehydrate and transform under expected thermal loads and investigate the ability of zeolites and smectites to rehydrate after the peak in temperature. Changes and Status. The primary objectives of this investigation have not changed since the SCP was issued. The SCP (DOE 1988, pp. 8.3.1.3-43 to -48), however, described a more extensive program of data collection. The studies for this investigation have evolved based on technical information obtained from laboratory and field studies (Vaniman et al. 1996, pp. 641-646; Levy et al. 1996, pp. 785–789), model development and data application activities of the site characterization program. Rapidly increasing scientific understanding, along with periodic TSPA, have enabled focusing the ongoing site characterization program on the major uncertainties that are significant to the design, operation and safe performance of the potential repository (DOE 1994a). Reevaluation and prioritization of Project needs (DOE 1994a) has been a continuous process based on scientific judgment and resource availability, governed by scientific criteria to ensure that data needed for site description, performance assessment, and design purposes are collected and analyzed. Data-collection redundancy and overlap have been eliminated. The data-collection needs have been further analyzed and refined as additional knowledge has been gained through years of site characterization activities (Vaniman et al. 1996, pp. 641-646; Levy et al. 1996, pp. 785-789). In addition, resource constraints as Site Recommendation and license application approach, has led to termination of some mineralogic and petrologic work or deferral to the outyears. This process has resulted in the following changes to the investigation: 1. In the mineralogy, petrology, and chemistry of transport path