FINAL REPORT TOTAL SYSTEM PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT PEER REVIEW PANEL


Front Matter

Title Page
Preface

CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  A. INTRODUCTION
  B. KEY FINDINGS
  C. TSPA-VA METHODOLOGY
  D. FUTURE ACTIONS TO IMPROVE THE TSPA
  E. SPECIFIC TECHNICAL OBSERVATIONS AND FINDINGS
    Advances and Improvements in the TSPA-VA Analysis
    Key Role of Infiltration and Seeps Analysis
    Key Role of the Waste Package
    Disruptive Events
    Potentially Non-Conservative Approaches
    Data and Research Needs

I. Introduction

  A. NATURE OF TSPA PEER REVIEW PROCESS
  B. CONTENT OF PANEL REPORTS
    Interim Reports
    Final Report

II. Main Findings

  A. RELIABILITY OF THE TSPA-VA RESULTS
    Key Points
    Elements of a Credible Analysis
  B. ADVANCES AND IMPROVEMENTS IN THE TSPA-VA ANALYSIS
  C. KEY ROLE OF THE WASTE PACKAGE
    Corrosion Resistance
    Need for Data
    Wet Waste Packages
    Use of the TSPA to Evaluate Design Options
  D. KEY ROLE OF INFILTRATION AND SEEPS ANALYSIS
  E. POTENTIALLY NON-CONSERVATIVE ASPECTS OF THE ANALYSIS
    Cladding
    Soil Buildup in Biosphere Analysis
  F. POTENTIALLY CONSERVATIVE ASPECTS OF THE ANALYSIS
    Transport through Penetrations in Waste Packages
    Retention of Radionuclides in Alteration Products of Spent Fuel
    Potential Sorption of Technetium and Iodine
  G. POTENTIALLY IMPORTANT BUT OMITTED PROCESSES
    Expansion of Steel Corrosion Products
    Hydrogen Embrittlement of Zirconium Cladding
    Stress Corrosion Cracking
  H. DATA NEEDS
    Fundamental Data
    Testing Models
  I. INSIGHTS FROM THE TSPA-VA

III. THE TSPA-VA METHODOLOGY

  A. EXPECTATIONS FOR THE TSPA-VA
    Differing Objectives for the TSPA-VA and the TSPA-LA
    Inherent Uncertainties in the Assessment
  B. METHODOLOGY
    Overall Framework of the Analysis
    Use of Model Abstractions
    Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses
    Use of Expert Elicitations
    Use of Expected Values
  C. COMPLEXITIES OF THE SYSTEM AND OF ITS COMPONENTS
    Modeling of Coupled Processes
    Limitations of the Component Models
  D. MANAGING COMPLEXITIES AND COMPONENT MODEL LIMITATIONS
    Conclusions and Recommendations
  E. OVERALL CONCLUSIONS ABOUT THE TSPA-VA METHODOLOGY

IV. COMPONENT MODELS OF TSPA-VA

  A. THE UNSATURATED ZONE UNDER INITIAL CONDITIONS
    Infiltration Rate
    Hydrologic Properties
    Seepage
  B. THERMOHYDROLOGY
    Background
    Coupled Effects
    TSPA-VA Approach
  C. NEAR-FIELD GEOCHEMICAL ENVIRONMENT
    Background
    TSPA-VA Approach
    General Findings
  D. WASTE PACKAGE DEGRADATION
    Overview of Waste Package Performance
    Base Case and Alternate Designs
    Environmental Conditions At, On, and Within the Waste Packages
    WAPDEG and Individual Corrosion Models
    Waste Package Sensitivity Analyses
    Physical Events and Processes
    Data and Related Research Needs
  E. THE ROLE OF FUEL CLADDING
    Background
    TSPA-VA Approach
    General Findings
    Future Work
  F. WASTE FORM DEGRADATION
    Spent Nuclear Fuel
    Borosilicate glass
  G. RADIONUCLIDE MOBILIZATION
    Solubility-Limited Radionuclide Concentrations
    Formation of Secondary Phases
    Colloid Formation
    EBS Transport
  H. UNSATURATED ZONE TRANSPORT
  I. SATURATED ZONE FLOW AND TRANSPORT
    Lack of Field Data
    Incomplete Characterization of the Site
    Streamtube Approach
  J. BIOSPHERE
    Use of Site-Specific Data
    Uncertainties and Conservatisms
    Soil Adsorption of Radionuclides
  K. EARTHQUAKES, VOLCANISM, CRITICALITY, HUMAN INTRUSION, AND CLIMATE CHANGE
    Earthquakes
    Seismic Rockfall Analysis
    Volcanism
    Criticality
    Human Intrusion
    Climate Change

Appendix A: Specific Comments on Sub-System Models of the NFGE

  MODELS OF INCOMING GAS, WATER AND COLLOIDS
    Gas
    Water
    Colloids
  MODELING OF IN-DRIFT GAS
  MODELING OF IN-DRIFT WATER/SOLID CHEMISTRY
    In-Drift Colloid Model
    In-Drift Microbial Communities Model

APPENDIX B: PEER REVIEW PLAN

APPENDIX C: PEER REVIEW PANEL

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

REFERENCES


LIST OF FIGURES

Figure IV-1. Calculated seepage fraction and seep flow rate as functions of percolation flux (Figure 3-13 of TSPA-VA).

Figure IV-2. Simulated vertical temperature profiles at Yucca Mountain (from Haukwa et al, 1998).

Figure IV-3. Development of precipitate cap over repository as indicated by fracture porosity ratio change (from Hardin, 1998).

Figure IV-4. Logic diagram for waste package degradation model (Figure 3-44, TSPA-VA).

Figure IV-5. Information needs for the waste package degradation model-WAPDEG (Figure 5-5 Chapter 5 of Technical Basis Documents).

Figure A-1. Schematic stability relations among the minerals found in typical hydrothermal systems. Kao: kaolinite, Ser: sericite, NM: Na-montmorillonite, Ab: albite, Kf: K-feldspar (after Browne, 1978).